Assessing the role of circular economy in provincial low-carbon transitions within China’s pulp and paper industry

Abstract

Faced with escalating sustainability challenges, China’s pulp and paper industry (PPI) is under pressure to achieve carbon neutrality, as it is one of the top eight carbon-emitting sectors in the national carbon market. Although the adoption of circular economy (CE) principles is considered a key strategy for the PPI’s low-carbon transition, a comprehensive understanding of the specific contributions of CE to CO₂ reduction within China’s PPI is currently lacking, including the differences in CO₂ reduction potential across various measures and regions. Against this backdrop, an accounting method for the contribution of CE activities in the PPI to CO₂ abatement at the industrial level was developed in this study. Building on the current status of CO₂ emissions in China’s PPI, we evaluated the CO₂ reduction potential under various CE scenarios from 2020 to 2035, considering four CE measures: waste reduction, clean energy substitution, energy efficiency improvement, and waste paper recycling. The results revealed that under a Business-as-Usual (BAU) scenario, CO₂ emissions would increase with the expansion of the production scale, rising from 141.5 Mt in 2020 to 213.7 Mt in 2035. Compared with the BAU scenario, CE scenarios could achieve cumulative CO₂ reductions ranging from 708.8 to 1697.4 Mt from 2020 to 2035. Clean energy substitution contributes the largest CO₂ abatement in both CE-M and CE-G scenarios, with a cumulative emission reduction between 459.2 and 702.7 Mt of CO₂. The study also reveals provincial variations in CO₂ reduction potential and corresponding strategic approaches within China, with provinces such as Guangdong, Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Fujian provinces showing significant capabilities in emission reduction. The measures proposed in this study, including optimizing the energy consumption framework, enhancing source reduction management, and improving wastepaper recycling efficiency, provide effective pathways for the Chinese PPI to achieve low-carbon and sustainable development, which could also help reduce pollutant emissions, especially water pollutants.

Keywords

Pulp and paper industry (PPI) / Carbon emission reduction / Circular economy measures / Low-carbon development

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Funding

The President Youth Fund of the Institutes of Science and Development, CAS(E3X1851Q)

National Natural Science Foundation of China(71904184)

Shanghai Tongji Gao Tingyao Environmental Protection Technology Development Foundation

RIGHTS & PERMISSIONS

The Joint Center on Global Change and Earth System Science of the University of Maryland and Beijing Normal University