Carbon peak roadmap for China’s major energy-intensive industries: a bottom-up modeling approach

Abstract

Previous research has lacked a comprehensive study of the coupling and connections between China’s four major energy-intensive industries: electricity, steel, cement, and coal chemicals, which contribute to over 65% of China’s total carbon emissions and significantly impact the path to achieving China’s carbon peak. To address this gap, we developed a detailed energy-carbon integrated model, which include three scenarios: Business As Usual (BAU), Peak Oriented Scenario (POS), and Neutrality Oriented Scenario (NOS). Then, we analyzed the carbon emission trends in the four industries and assessed the contribution of key technologies to emission reductions. Our findings indicate that under the BAU, POS, and NOS, the carbon emissions will peak in 2030, 2025, and 2022, respectively, with peak values of 8.56, 8.06, and 7.81 billion tons. Raw material structure adjustments account for over 50% of carbon reductions in both the POS and NOS. Cleaning technology substitution and energy-saving technology collectively contribute to 10–20%. Therefore, cleaning fuels and raw materials and developing decarbonization technologies should be the main direction of future efforts, which will facilitate a timely carbon peak and lower peak value, aligning with global efforts to achieve the carbon reduction targets set out in the Paris Climate Agreement.

Keywords

Energy-intensive industries / Carbon peak / Roadmap / Industrial decarbonization

References

[1] AlolaAA, BekunFV, AdebayoTS, UzunerG. The nexus of disaggregated energy sources and cement production carbon emission in China. Energy Environ, 2023, 34: 1937-1956.

[2] BaiH, FengX, HouH, HeG, DongY, XuH. Mapping inter-industrial CO₂ flows within China. Renew Sustain Energy Rev, 2018, 93: 400-408.

[3] BekunFV, AlolaAA, GyamfiBA, KwakwaPA, UzunerG. Econometrics analysis on cement production and environmental quality in European Union countries. Int J Environ Sci Technol (Tehran), 2023, 20: 4265-4280.

[4] Boao Forum for Asia Research Institute, Global Green Growth Institute, Deloitte China (2022) New development bank, sustainable development: Asia and the World Annual Report 2022. Beijing

[5] CaprosP, ZaziasG, EvangelopoulouS, KannavouM, FotiouT, SiskosP, De VitaA, SakellarisK. Energy-system modelling of the EU strategy towards climate-neutrality. Energy Policy, 2019, 134: 110960.

[6] Carmona-MartinezAA, RontogianniA, ZeneliM, GrammelisP, BrigiO, JanssenR, Di CostanzoB, VisM, et al. . Charting the course: navigating decarbonisation pathways in Greece, Germany, The Netherlands, and Spain’s industrial sectors. Sustainability, 2024, 16: 6176.

[7] ChenQ, GuY, TangZ, WeiW, SunY. Assessment of low-carbon iron and steel production with CO₂ recycling and utilization technologies: a case study in China. Appl Energy, 2018, 220: 192-207.

[8] ChenX, ShuaiC, WuY, ZhangY. Analysis on the carbon emission peaks of China’s industrial, building, transport, and agricultural sectors. Sci Total Environ, 2020, 709: 135768.

[9] ChenPP, ZhangSH, MengJ, LeiTY, LiBX, CoffmanD. Technological solutions to China’s carbon neutrality in the steel and cement sectors. Earth’s Future, 2023, 11: e2022EF003255.

[10] Chinese Academy of Environmental Planning (2021) Research on Roadmap of total coal consumption control in key industries under the constraint of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality. Accessed 20 December 2021

[11] European Commission (2021) National energy and climate plans 2021–2030. Brussels

[12] DemetriouE, HadjistassouC. Can China decarbonize its electricity sector?. Energy Policy, 2021, 148: 111917.

[13] DingaCD, WenZ. China’s green deal: Can China’s cement industry achieve carbon neutral emissions by 2060?. Renew Sustain Energy Rev, 2022, 155: 111931.

[14] DongHM, LiuYS, ZhaoZH, TanXJ, ManagiS. Carbon neutrality commitment for China: from vision to action. Sustain Sci, 2022, 17: 1741-1755.

[15] DuanHB, MoJL, FanY, WangSY. Achieving China’s energy and climate policy targets in 2030 under multiple uncertainties. Energy Econ, 2018, 70: 45-60.

[16] EgererJ, Farhang-DamghaniN, GrimmV, RungeP. The industry transformation from fossil fuels to hydrogen will reorganize value chains: big picture and case studies for Germany. Appl Energy, 2024, 358: 122485.

[17] FangK, LiC, TangY, HeJ, SongJ. China’s pathways to peak carbon emissions: new insights from various industrial sectors. Appl Energy, 2022, 306: 118039.

[18] FilonchykM, PeterMP, YanHW, GusevA, ZhangLF, HeY, YangSW. Greenhouse gas emissions and reduction strategies for the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitters. Sci Total Environ, 2024, 944: 173895.

[19] FragkosP, van SoestHL, SchaefferR, ReedmanL, KoberleAC, MacalusoN, EvangelopoulouS, De VitaA, et al. . Energy system transitions and low-carbon pathways in Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, EU-28, India, Indonesia, Japan, Republic of Korea Russia and the United States. Energy, 2021, 216: 119385.

[20] GaoT, ShenL, ShenM, LiuL, ChenF, GaoL. Evolution and projection of CO₂ emissions for China’s cement industry from 1980 to 2020. Renew Sustain Energy Rev, 2017, 74: 522-537.

[21] GielenD, SayginD, TaibiE, BiratJP. Renewables-based decarbonization and relocation of iron and steel making: a case study. J Ind Ecol, 2020, 24: 1113-1125.

[22] GuanD, MengJ, ReinerDM, ZhangN, ShanY, MiZ, ShaoS, LiuZ, ZhangQ, DavisSJ. Structural decline in China’s CO2 emissions through transitions in industry and energy systems. Nat Geosci, 2018, 11: 551-555.

[23] HanX, VercoulenP, LeeS, LamA, KateS, MorotomiT, KoukouzasN. Policy design for diffusing hydrogen economy and its impact on the Japanese economy for carbon neutrality by 2050: analysis using the E3ME-FTT Model. Energies, 2023, 16: 7392.

[24] HeJK, LiZ, ZhangXL, WangHL, DongWJ, DuES, ChangSY, OuXM, et al. . Towards carbon neutrality: a study on China’s long-term low-carbon transition pathways and strategies. Environ Sci Ecotechnol, 2022, 9: 100134.

[25] HuangY, YiQ, KangJX, ZhangYG, LiWY, FengJ, XieKC. Investigation and optimization analysis on deployment of China coal chemical industry under carbon emission constraints. Appl Energy, 2019, 254: 113684.

[26] HuoTF, MaYL, CanWG, LiuBS, MuLL. Will the urbanization process influence the peak of carbon emissions in the building sector? A dynamic scenario simulation. Energy Build, 2021, 232: 110590.

[27] JiaZ, WenS, LinB. The effects and reacts of COVID-19 pandemic and international oil price on energy, economy, and environment in China. Appl Energy, 2021, 302: 117612.

[28] JiangD, ZhangLR, SunHP, FangK. An economic analysis of China’s imposing carbon tax to respond to future carbon tariffs: case study of USA. Acta Ecol Sin, 2020, 40: 440-446(in Chinese)

[29] JiangK, AshworthP, ZhangSY, LiangX, SunY, AngusD. China’s carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) policy: a critical review. Renew Sustain Energy Rev, 2020, 119: 109601.

[30] KarakayaE, NuurC, AssbringL. Potential transitions in the iron and steel industry in Sweden: towards a hydrogen-based future?. J Clean Prod, 2018, 195: 651-663.

[31] LiZ, HanaokaT. Development of large-point source emission downscale model by estimating the future capacity distribution of the Chinese iron and steel industry up to 2050. Resour Conserv Recycl, 2020, 161: 104853.

[32] LiZJ, YuanPF. Evaluation and route of overcapacity cutting: analysis based on dynamic computable general equilibrium model. China Soft Sci, 2018, 1: 10-18(in Chinese)

[33] LiN, MaD, ChenW. Quantifying the impacts of decarbonisation in China’s cement sector: a perspective from an integrated assessment approach. Appl Energy, 2017, 185: 1840-1848.

[34] LiL, ZhangY, ZhouT, WangK, WangC, WangT, YuanL, AnK, ZhouC, LüG. Mitigation of China’s carbon neutrality to global warming. Nat Commun, 2022, 13: 5315.

[35] LiYM, KhurshidA, KhanK. Optimization of coal-to-liquid processes; a way forward towards carbon neutrality, high economic returns and effective resource utilization, evidences from China. Fuel, 2023, 344: 128082.

[36] LiangX, MinF, XiaoY, YaoJ. Temporal-spatial characteristics of energy-based carbon dioxide emissions and driving factors during 2004–2019. China Energy, 2022, 261: 124965.

[37] LiuJ, WangK, ZouJ, KongY. The implications of coal consumption in the power sector for China’s CO₂ peaking target. Appl Energy, 2019, 253: 113518.

[38] LiuZ, DengZ, HeG, WangHL, ZhangX, LinJ, QiY, LiangX. Challenges and opportunities for carbon neutrality in China. Nat Rev Earth Environ, 2022, 3: 141-155.

[39] Luo L, Guo YY, Li YM, Zhang ZS, Zhu TY (2022) Research on Low-Carbon Development Technology Path and Forecast of Cement Industry under Carbon Neutral Situation. Res Environ Sci 35:1527–1537. (In Chinese)

[40] MaX, WangC, DongB, GuG, ChenR, LiY, ZouH, ZhangW, LiQ. Carbon emissions from energy consumption in China: its measurement and driving factors. Sci Total Environ, 2019, 648: 1411-1420.

[41] MaY, LiaoY, SuY, WangB, YangY, JiD, LiH, ZhouH, WangD. Comparative investigation of different CO2 capture technologies for coal to ethylene glycol process. Processes, 2021, 9: 207.

[42] Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Ecology and Environment (2022) Implementation plan for carbon peak in the industrial sector. Beijing. (in Chinese)

[43] National Development and Reform Commission (2021) The 14th five-year plan for circular economy development. Beijing. (in Chinese)

[44] National Development and Reform Commission, Nation Energy Administration (2022) Opinions on improving the institutional mechanisms and policy measures for green and low-carbon energy transformation. Beijing. (in Chinese)

[45] National Development and Reform Commission, Nation Energy Administration (2022) Modern energy system planning for the 14th five-year plan. Beijing. (in Chinese)

[46] Ofosu-AdarkwaJ, XieN, JavedSA. Forecasting CO₂ emissions of China’s cement industry using a hybrid Verhulst-GM(1, N) model and emissions’ technical conversion. Renew Sustain Energy Rev, 2020, 130: 109945.

[47] RenL, ZhouS, PengT, OuX. A review of CO₂ emissions reduction technologies and low-carbon development in the iron and steel industry focusing on China. Renew Sustain Energy Rev, 2021, 143: 110846.

[48] RenM, LuP, LiuX, HossainMS, FangY, HanaokaT, O’GallachoirB, GlynnJ, DaiH. Decarbonizing China’s iron and steel industry from the supply and demand sides for carbon neutrality. Appl Energy, 2021, 298: 117209.

[49] SanjuanMA, ArgizC, MoraP, ZaragozaA. Carbon dioxide uptake in the roadmap 2050 of the Spanish cement industry. Energies, 2020, 13: 3452.

[50] ShanY, HuangQ, GuanD, HubacekK. China CO₂ emission accounts 2016–2017. Sci Data, 2020, 7: 54.

[51] ShaoS, LiuJ, GengY, MiaoZ, YangY. Uncovering driving factors of carbon emissions from China’s mining sector. Appl Energy, 2016, 166: 220-238.

[52] SunJC, QiuZY, YuanYX, CheZC, ZhangL, DuT, NaHM, LiYN. Decarbonization potential collaborated with source industries for China’s iron and steel industry towards carbon neutrality. J Clean Prod, 2023, 429: 139643.

[53] TanC, YuX, GuanY. A technology-driven pathway to net-zero carbon emissions for China’s cement industry. Appl Energy, 2022, 325: 119804.

[54] TangB, LiR, YuB, AnR, WeiYM. How to peak carbon emissions in China’s power sector: a regional perspective. Energy Policy, 2018, 120: 365-381.

[55] TapiaJFD, LeeJY, OoiREH, FooDCY, TanRR. A review of optimization and decision-making models for the planning of CO2 capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) systems. Sustain Prod Consum, 2018, 13: 1-15.

[56] The State Council of the People’s Republic of China (2021) Action plan for reaching carbon peak before 2030. Beijing. (in Chinese)

[57] TongD, ZhangQ, LiuF, GengG, ZhengY, XueT, HongC, WuR, QinY, ZhaoH, YanL, HeK. Current emissions and future mitigation pathways of coal-fired power plants in China from 2010 to 2030. Environ Sci Technol, 2018, 52: 12905-12914.

[58] TonomuraS, KikuchiN, IshiwataN, TomisakiS, TomitaY. Concept and current state of CO₂ ultimate reduction in the steelmaking process (COURSE50) aimed at sustainability in the Japanese steel industry. J Sustain Metall, 2016, 2: 191-199.

[59] United States Department of State (2021) The long-term strategy of the united states-pathways to net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. Washington

[60] Van SoestHL, den EllenMGJ, van VuurenDP. Net-zero emission targets for major emitting countries consistent with the Paris Agreement. Nat Commun, 2021, 12: 2140.

[61] ViebahnP, VallentinD, HöllerS. Prospects of carbon capture and storage (CCS) in China’s power sector—An integrated assessment. Appl Energy, 2015, 157: 229-244.

[62] WangXD, JinYL. Strategy analysis and testing study of high ratio of pellet utilized in blast furnace. Iron Steel, 2021, 56: 7-16(in Chinese)

[63] WangQ, WangWL, LiuM, LiuJF, LiuJZ, YueGX. Development and prospect of (ultra) supercritical coal-fired power generation technology. Therm Power Gener, 2021, 50: 1-9(in Chinese)

[64] WangXY, YuBY, AnRY, SunFH, XuS. An integrated analysis of China?s iron and steel industry towards carbon neutrality. Appl Energy, 2022, 322: 119453.

[65] WeiJ, CenK. A preliminary calculation of cement carbon dioxide in China from 1949 to 2050. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change, 2019, 24: 1343-1362.

[66] XuZG. Review, rethink and prospect of China’s modern coal chemical industry development in recent 25 years. Coal Sci Technol, 2020, 48: 1-25(in Chinese)

[67] XuGY, ZangLM, SchwarzP, YangHL. Achieving China’s carbon neutrality goal by economic growth rate adjustment and low-carbon energy structure. Energy Policy, 2023, 183: 113817.

[68] XuanY, YueQ. Forecast of steel demand and the availability of depreciated steel scrap in China. Resour Conserv Recycl, 2016, 109: 1-12.

[69] YanYL, LiJJ, DuanXL, YangD. Life cycle assessment of emerging coal conversion technologies in China: an industrial-scale comparison. Energy Convers Manag, 2022, 271: 116293.

[70] YiBW, XuJH, FanY. Inter-regional power grid planning up to 2030 in China considering renewable energy development and regional pollutant control: a multi-region bottom-up optimization model. Appl Energy, 2016, 184: 641-658.

[71] YuX, TanC. China’s pathway to carbon neutrality for the iron and steel industry. Glob Environ Change, 2022, 76: 102574.

[72] ZhangJ, JiangH, LiuG, ZengW. A study on the contribution of industrial restructuring to reduction of carbon emissions in China during the five Five-Year Plan periods. J Clean Prod, 2018, 176: 629-635.

[73] ZhangY, YuanZ, MargniM, BulleC, HuaH, JiangS, LiuX. Intensive carbon dioxide emission of coal chemical industry in China. Appl Energy, 2019, 236: 540-550.

[74] ZhangWW, ZhaoB, GuY, SharpB, XuSC, LiouKN. Environmental impact of national and subnational carbon policies in China based on a multi-regional dynamic CGE model. J Environ Manage, 2020, 270: 110901.

[75] ZhangLB, DuQ, ZhouDQ, ZhouP. How does the photovoltaic industry contribute to China’s carbon neutrality goal? Analysis of a system dynamics simulation. Sci Total Environ, 2021, 808: 151868.

[76] ZhangQ, ShenJL, XuLS. Carbon peak and low-carbon transition path pf China’s iron and steel industry. Iron Steel, 2021, 56: 152-163(in Chinese)

[77] Zhang ZG, Kang CQ (2022) Challenges and prospects for constructing the new-type power system towards a carbon neutrality future. Proc CSEE 42:2806–2818 (in Chinese)

[78] ZhangSH, YiBW, GuoF, ZhuPY. Exploring selected pathways to low and zero CO₂ emissions in China’s iron and steel industry and their impacts on resources and energy. J Clean Prod, 2022, 340: 130813.

[79] ZhangP, JinL, WangYT. Optimizing mechanisms for promoting low-carbon manufacturing industries towards carbon neutrality. Renew Sustain Energy Rev, 2023, 183: 113516.

[80] ZhaoX, MaXW, ChenBY, ShangYP, SongML. Challenges toward carbon neutrality in China: strategies and countermeasures. Resour Conserv Recycl, 2022, 176: 105959.

[81] Zhao YH, Huang FW, Chang CH, Lin JJ (2024) Domestic and foreign cap-and-trade regulations, carbon tariffs, and product tariffs during international trade conflicts: A multiproduct cost-efficiency analysis. Energy Econ 140:108034

[82] ZhengL, ZhaoY, ShiQ, QianZ, WangS, ZhuJ. Global value chains participation and carbon emissions embodied in exports of China: perspective of firm heterogeneity. Sci Total Environ, 2022, 813: 152587.

RIGHTS & PERMISSIONS

The Joint Center on Global Change and Earth System Science of the University of Maryland and Beijing Normal University