Flood forecasting in a highly developed urban area: a synergistic approach to pluvial and fluvial flooding using MIKE +

Abstract

Dhaka, one of the world’s fastest-growing megacities, faces severe urban flood risks driven by rapid urbanization, inadequate drainage infrastructure, and climate change–induced extreme weather. This study develops an integrated urban flood forecasting system for a densely built-up area of Dhaka using the MIKE + hydrodynamic model. The system links hydrological and hydraulic modules to simulate the complex interactions among surface runoff (pluvial), river overflow (fluvial), drainage networks, and overland flow. Real-time data from rainfall, river gauge, and pump stations are incorporated to improve forecasting precision. Sensitivity analysis identified ten influential parameters, optimized during model calibration. Historical flood events from 2019–2022 were used for calibration and validation, yielding high performance with Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) above 0.70, R² above 0.80 and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) below 0.1 m. The model’s robustness was further verified using major flood events in 2020 2021, 2022, 2024 and 2025 validated against flood marks and community reports and observed data. This advanced forecasting framework offers reliable early warnings and scenario simulations, strengthening decision-making and emergency response for flood-prone urban areas in Dhaka.

Keywords

Urban Flood / MIKE + / Real-time flood forecasting / Hydrodynamic modeling / Pluvial flood / Fluvial flood / Hydrological modelling

References

[1] Acosta-Coll M, Ballester-Merelo F, Martinez-Peiró M, De la Hoz-Franco E. Real-time early warning system design for pluvial flash floods—A review. Sensors, 2018, 18: 2255

[2] Aerts, J., Botzen, W., Bowman, M., Dircke, P., & Ward, P. (2013). Climate Adaptation and Flood Risk in Coastal Cities (Earthscan Climate). Water Resources Research, 54.

[3] Ahmed F, Moors E, Khan MSA, Warner J, Van Scheltinga CT. Tipping points in adaptation to urban flooding under climate change and urban growth: The case of the Dhaka megacity. Land Use Policy, 2018, 79: 496-506

[4] Ahmed S, Meenar M, Alam A. Designing a Blue-Green Infrastructure (BGI) network: Toward water-sensitive urban growth planning in Dhaka. Bangladesh. Land, 2019, 8: 138

[5] Akhter, S., Syed, I.M., Alam, M.S., Mallik, M., Hassan, S.Q., & Huque, S.M. (2017) Simulation of High Impact Monsoon Rainfall and its Thermodynamic Features over Bangladesh Using WRF Model.

[6] Akter A, Tanim AH. Estimating urban flood hazard zones using SWMM in Chittagong City. Technical Journal River Research Institute, 2016, 13: 87-101

[7] Alam, S., Jahan, S., & Noor, F. (2022). The surface water system, flood and water resources management of Bangladesh. Bangladesh Geosciences and Resources Potential, 467–546.

[8] Alam M, Rabbani MGVulnerabilities and responses to climate change for Dhaka, 2012Routledge112-129

[9] Aljohani, F.H., Alkhodre, A.B., Sen, A.A.A., Ramazan, M.S., Alzahrani, B., & Siddiqui, M.S. (2023). Flood Prediction using Hydrologic and ML-based Modeling: A Systematic Review. International Journal of Advanced Computer Science & Applications, 14. https://doi.org/10.14569/ijacsa.2023.0141155.

[10] Baker, J.L. (2012). Climate change, disaster risk, and the urban poor: cities building resilience for a changing world; World Bank Publications.

[11] Bakhtiari, V., Piadeh, F., Chen, A.S., & Behzadian, K. (2023). Stakeholder analysis in the application of cutting-edge digital visualisation technologies for urban flood risk management: A critical review. Expert Systems with Applications, 121426. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2023.121426.

[12] Balmforth DDesigning for exceedance in urban drainage: Good practice, 2006CIRIA

[13] Bouramdane, A.-A. (2023). Enhancing disaster management in smart cities through MCDM-AHP analysis amid 21st century challenges. Information System and Smart City, 3. https://doi.org/10.59400/issc.v3i1.189.

[14] Ceenepalli, P., & Chandrasekhar, C. (2023). IoT-Enabled Flood Wall: Advancing Real-Time Flash Flood Monitoring and Forecasting. In Proceedings of the 2023 International Conference on Self Sustainable Artificial Intelligence Systems (ICSSAS); pp. 1369–1376.

[15] Dasgupta, S., Zaman, A., Roy, S., Huq, M., Jahan, S., & Nishat, A. (2015). Urban Flooding of Greater Dhaka in a Changing Climate: Building local resilience to disaster risk; World Bank Publications.

[16] De Risi R, De Paola F, Turpie J, Kroeger T. Life Cycle Cost and Return on Investment as complementary decision variables for urban flood risk management in developing countries. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 2018, 28: 88-106

[17] Dewan AM, Islam MM, Kumamoto T, Nishigaki M. Evaluating flood hazard for land-use planning in greater Dhaka of Bangladesh using remote sensing and GIS techniques. Water Resources Management, 2007, 21: 1601-1612

[18] DHI, D.W.E. (2023). MIKE 21 & MIKE 3 Flow Model FM.

[19] DhiMIKE+ Collection System – User Manual, 2023DHI A/S

[20] DhiMIKE+ Hydrology and Rainfall–Runoff User Guide, 2023DHI A/S

[21] Eekhout JPC, Hunink JE, Terink W, de Vente J. Why increased extreme precipitation under climate change negatively affects water security. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2018, 22: 5935-5946

[22] Gain AK, Mojtahed V, Biscaro C, Balbi S, Giupponi C. An integrated approach of flood risk assessment in the eastern part of Dhaka City. Natural Hazards, 2015, 79: 1499-1530

[23] Galloway GE, Reilly A, Ryoo S, Riley A, Haslam M, Brody S, Highfield W, Gunn J, Rainey J, Parker SThe growing threat of urban flooding: A national challenge, 2018University of Maryland and Texas A&M University

[24] Halder A, Majed N. The effects of unplanned land use and heavy seasonal rainfall on the storm-water drainage in Dhaka metropolitan city of Bangladesh. Urban Water Journal, 2023, 20: 707-722

[25] Hallegatte S, Ranger N, Bhattacharya S, Bachu M, Priya S, Dhore K, Rafique F, Mathur P, Naville N, Henriet F, et al.. Flood Risks. Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Benefits in Mumbai., 2010

[26] Hossain AA, Easson GPotential Impacts of the Growth of a Megacity in Southeast Asia: A Case Study on the City of Dhaka, Bangladesh, 2022Springer2731-2758

[27] Hossain S, Spurway K, Zwi A, Huq N, Mamun R, Islam R, Nowrin I, Ether S, Bonnitcha J, Dahal NWhat is the impact of urbanisation on risk of, and vulnerability to, natural disasters? What are the effective approaches for reducing exposure of urban population to disaster risks, 2017UCL Institute of Education, University College London

[28] Kabir MH, Sato M, Habbiba U, Yousuf TB. Assessment of urban disaster resilience in Dhaka North City Corporation (DNCC), Bangladesh. Procedia Engineering, 2018, 212: 1107-1114

[29] Khaleda, S., Mowla, Q.A., & Murayama, Y. (2017). Dhaka metropolitan area. Urban Development in Asia and Africa: Geospatial Analysis of Metropolises, 195–215.

[30] Koetse MJ, Rietveld P. The impact of climate change and weather on transport: An overview of empirical findings. Transportation Research Part d: Transport and Environment, 2009, 14: 205-221

[31] Liu J, Cai J, Yang D, Wang X. A numerical visualization technique based on the hydraulic analogy. Journal of Visualization, 2019, 22: 371-384

[32] Liu J, Li Z, Shao W, Yan D, Mei C. Urban flood modelling in Qiqihar city based on MIKE flood. Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences, 2020, 383: 185-192

[33] Mark, O., Apirumanekul, C., Kamal Mir, M., & Praydal, G. (2012). Modelling of Urban Flooding in Dhaka City. In Urban Drainage Modeling; Proceedings; pp. 333–343.

[34] Metcalf, Eddy, Abu-Orf, M., Bowden, G., Burton, F.L., Pfrang, W., Stensel, H.D., Tchobanoglous, G., Tsuchihashi, R., & AECOM. (2014). Wastewater engineering: treatment and resource recovery; McGraw Hill Education.

[35] MIKE. (2023). MIKE 21 & MIKE 3 Flow Model FM.

[36] Mishra, R. (2018). Dam Breach Parameters and its Effects on Propagation of Flood Wave at the Downstream of Sarabgarh Irrigation Project.

[37] moni Boruah, M.T. (2017). Development of 1d and 2d Hydrodynamic Flood Model Using Mike Software by Dhi”. https://doi.org/10.35629/5252-03086178.

[38] Novak, P., Moffat, A., Nalluri, C., & Narayanan, R. (2017). Hydraulic structures; CRC Press.

[39] Pregnolato M, Ford A, Robson C, Glenis V, Barr S, Dawson R. Assessing urban strategies for reducing the impacts of extreme weather on infrastructure networks. Royal Society Open Science, 2016, 3: 160023

[40] Qiu GY, Zou Z, Li X, Li H, Guo Q, Yan C, Tan S. Experimental studies on the effects of green space and evapotranspiration on urban heat island in a subtropical megacity in China. Habitat International, 2017, 68: 30-42

[41] Rahman, S. (2011). Households’ flood vulnerability assessment in context of climate change. University of Twente.

[42] Rahman KN, Chisty HU, Abedin DA, Saha AWater in Cities: CAN WE END THE WAR?: Experiences from the Detailed Area Plan of Dhaka, 2022Routledge222-238

[43] Rahman, R., & Salehin, M. (2013). Flood risks and reduction approaches in Bangladesh. Disaster risk reduction approaches in Bangladesh, 65–90.

[44] Rahman, A.A., Alam, M., Alam, S.S., Uzzaman, M.R., Rashid, M., & Rabbani, G. (2007). Risks, vulnerability and adaptation in Bangladesh. Human Development Report, 8.

[45] Rainey JL, Brody SD, Galloway GE, Highfield WE. Assessment of the growing threat of urban flooding: A case study of a national survey. Urban Water Journal, 2021, 18: 375-381

[46] Rau JL, Nutalaya PGeomorphology and land subsidence in Bangkok, Thailand, 2020Routledge181-201

[47] Regmi RK. Urbanization and related environmental issues of Metro Manila. Journal of Advanced College of Engineering and Management, 2017, 3: 79-92

[48] Rohinton E, Erik J. Influence of urban morphology and sea breeze on hot humid microclimate: The case of Colombo. Sri Lanka. Climate Research, 2006, 30: 189-200

[49] Rosenberg EA, Keys PW, Booth DB, Hartley D, Burkey J, Steinemann AC, Lettenmaier DP. Precipitation extremes and the impacts of climate change on stormwater infrastructure in Washington State. Climatic Change, 2010, 102: 319-349

[50] Shahid S, Wang X-J, Harun SB, Shamsudin SB, Ismail T, Minhans A. Climate variability and changes in the major cities of Bangladesh: Observations, possible impacts and adaptation. Regional Environmental Change, 2016, 16: 459-471

[51] Shuvo SD, Rashid T, Panda SK, Das S, Quadir DA. Forecasting of pre-monsoon flash flood events in the northeastern Bangladesh using coupled hydrometeorological NWP modelling system. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 2021, 133: 1603-1625

[52] Siddiqua, A. (2021). Development of integrated landscape framework at land-water interface for water sensitive urban design in the eastern fringe of Dhaka metropolitan area.

[53] Song Y, Huang J, Toorman E, Yang G. Reconstruction of river topography for 3d hydrodynamic modelling using surveyed cross-sections: An improved algorithm. Water, 2020, 12: 3539

[54] Sultana T, Magumdar TKConsultancy Services for Expansion flood forecasting model (whole country) Improve inundation model in coastal and hotspot areas (depth and area of inundation), 2024Institute of Water Modelling (IWM)

[55] Tabari H. Climate change impact on flood and extreme precipitation increases with water availability. Scientific Reports, 2020, 10: 13768

[56] Taubenböck H, Esch T, Felbier A, Wiesner M, Roth A, Dech S. Monitoring urbanization in mega cities from space. Remote Sensing of Environment, 2012, 117: 162-176

[57] Tawhid, K.G. (2004). Causes and effects of water logging in Dhaka City, Bangladesh. TRITA-LWR master thesis, Department of Land and Water Resource Engineering, Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm.

[58] Timbadiya, P., Patel, P., & Porey, P. (2014). One-dimensional hydrodynamic modelling of flooding and stage hydrographs in the lower Tapi River in India. Current Science, 708–716. https://www.jstor.org/stable/24099969.

[59] Tingsanchali T, Promping T. Comprehensive Assessment of Flood Hazard, Vulnerability, and Flood Risk at the Household Level in a Municipality Area: A Case Study of Nan Province, Thailand. Water, 2022, 14: 161

[60] Trenberth, K.E. (2005). The Impact of Climate Change and Variability on Heavy Precipitation, Floods, and Droughts. In Encyclopedia of Hydrological Sciences.

[61] Weltbank. (2015). Climate and Disaster Resilience of Greater Dhaka Area: A Micro Level Analysis.

[62] Willems P, Arnbjerg-Nielsen K, Olsson J, Nguyen VTV. Climate change impact assessment on urban rainfall extremes and urban drainage: Methods and shortcomings. Atmospheric Research, 2012, 103: 106-118

Funding

Embassy of Denmark Bangladesh(286987)

RIGHTS & PERMISSIONS

The Author(s)