Modeling and Reviewing Analysis of the COVID-19 Epidemic in Algeria with Diagnostic Shadow

Abstract

In this paper, we formulate a special epidemic dynamic model to describe the transmission of COVID-19 in Algeria. We derive the threshold parameter control reproduction number ($\left(\mathcal{R}_{c}^{0}\right)$), and present the effective control reproduction number ($\mathcal{R}_{c}(t)$) as a real-time index for evaluating the epidemic under different control strategies. Due to the limitation of the reported data, we redefine the number of accumulative confirmed cases with diagnostic shadow and then use the processed data to do the optimal numerical simulations. According to the control measures, we divide the whole research period into six stages. And then the corresponding medical resource estimations and the average effective control reproduction numbers for each stage are given. Meanwhile, we use the parameter values which are obtained from the optimal numerical simulations to forecast the whole epidemic tendency under different control strategies.

Keywords

COVID-19 / Algeria / diagnostic shadow / medical resource