Permeability evolution and model of methane hydrate-bearing sediments under coupled shear strain, effective confining pressure, and hydrate saturation

Abstract

The permeability of methane hydrate-bearing sediments (MHBS) is a key parameter for evaluating reservoir exploitation potential and formulating efficient production strategies. In actual field development, MHBS exists in a complex environment characterized by stress-seepage coupling. Research on the permeability model of methane hydrate-bearing sediments under multi-factor coupling conditions remains scarce, limiting the assessment of methane hydrate (MH) reservoir hydrocarbon production potential and efficient development. This study used quartz sand and deep-sea clay from the South China Sea as matrix materials to generate MH, simulating MHBS. Systematic triaxial seepage experiments were conducted to assess the influence of multiple factors, including triaxial shear process, effective confining pressure, and hydrate saturation, on the permeability characteristics of MHBS. The results demonstrate the following: (1) During triaxial compression, permeability exhibits a nonlinear variation—first decreasing and then stabilizing or rebounding—with increasing shear strain, reflecting stress-induced pore structure evolution; (2) the permeability of MHBS decreases nonlinearly with increasing effective confining pressure, showing higher sensitivity in the low-pressure range. Effective confining pressure reduces sample permeability by compressing seepage channels, and this effect is more significant at the initial stages of stress growth; (3) hydrate saturation is negatively correlated with permeability, with the cementing effect of hydrates being the primary cause for the decrease in permeability of MHBS, also reducing the impact of effective confining pressure; (4) effective confining pressure, hydrate saturation, and shear strain have a coupled effect, jointly influencing the permeability of MHBS, but their relative weights vary and require specific consideration; (5) based on experimental data, a permeability prediction model considering the coupling effects of shear strain, effective confining pressure, and hydrate saturation was established. This model demonstrates excellent predictive accuracy and can be applied to forecast the hydrocarbon yield potential of MHBS under varying geological and engineering conditions, providing quantitative basis for reservoir evaluation and gas production prediction. This study bridges the gap between laboratory permeability characterization and field production capacity forecasting, offering critical theoretical and technical support for the sustainable development of marine gas hydrate resources.

Keywords

Hydrate / xClean enegy / Combustible ice / Unconventional energy / Exploitation potential assessment / Hydrate-bearing sediments / Triaxial test / Hydrate saturation / Effective confining pressure / Shear strain / Permeability evolution / Seepage mechanism / Multi-factor coupling model

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