Groundwater hydrodynamics and supply sustainability in Punjab, Pakistan: A geological statistical approach using the GAMEAS algorithm based on data from 1105 boreholes

Abstract

Effective groundwater management is crucial for economic sustainable development, particularly as climate change and population growth increase the uncertainty of aquifer dynamics. Due to limited geological data, Punjab's complex hydrogeological conditions and Quaternary alluvial deposits present significant challenges for groundwater management. This study employs cost-effective numerical techniques as alternatives to traditional methods to safeguard groundwater quality, quantity, and accessibility. It introduces an edit-embedded transition frequency model that integrates regional datasets and utilizes algorithms such as GAMEAS, MCMOD, and TSIM to evaluate aquifer heterogeneity and simulate spatial variations using one-dimensional and three-dimensional Markov chains. Findings show that sand exhibits the highest self-transition (33.112 m), indicating strong stability, followed by silt, clay, and gravel, suggesting overall hydrofacies stability both horizontally and vertically. The model's predictions are largely consistent with actual material distribution, with a slight under-prediction of clay (−0.750%) and an over-prediction of sand (2.985%), which accounts for 58.77% of the aquifer material. It also highlights significant heterogeneity in the northern mountainous regions and minor variations in the south. The study emphasizes Punjab's severe water crisis, with groundwater reserves of 3502.3 BCM, declining water levels (0.38-33.62 m), and low hydraulic conductivity, urging government action on rainwater harvesting and sustainable groundwater management policies.

Keywords

Groundwater management / Economic sustainable development / T-progs modeling / Aquifer heterogeneity / Groundwater sustainability / Environment degradation / Catchment recharging

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