Unraveling the mechanisms underlying lake expansion from 2001 to 2020 and its impact on the ecological environment in a typical alpine basin on the Tibetan Plateau

Abstract

Yanhu Lake basin (YHB) is a typical alpine lake on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau (TP). Its continuous expansion in recent years poses serious threats to downstream major projects. As a result, studies of the mechanisms underlying lake expansion are urgently needed. The elasticity method within the Budyko framework was used to calculate the water balance in the Yanhu Lake basin (YHB) and the neighboring Tuotuo River basin (TRB). Results show intensification of hydrological cycles and positive trends in the lake area, river runoff, precipitation, and potential evapotranspiration. Lake expansion was significant between 2001 and 2020 and accelerated between 2015 and 2020. Precipitation increase was the key factor underlying the hydrological changes, followed by glacier meltwater and groundwater. The overflow of Yanhu Lake was inevitable because it was connected to three other lakes and the water balance of all four lakes was positive. The high salinity lake water diverted downstream will greatly impact the water quality of the source area of the Yangtze River and the stability of the permafrost base of the traffic corridor.

Keywords

Attribution analysis / Budyko framework / Climate change / Lake expansion / Water balance / Diverting water to the Yangtze River / Hydrogeology survey engineering / Tibetan Plateau

CRediT authorship contribution statement

Chang-chang Fu and Xiang-quan Li conceived of the presented idea. Chang-chang Fu wrote the manuscript in consultation. Xu Cheng provided the necessary data. All authors discussed the results and contributed to the final manuscript.

Declaration of competing interest

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

Acknowledgment

This work was funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42002264), the China Geological Survey Program (DD20230537), and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Public Research Institutes (SK202006). The authors are grateful to Dr. Ai-min Wu, Dr. Yong-shuang Zhang, Dr. Jing-tao Liu, Dr. Peng He and three anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments and suggestions which substantially improved this work in science and presentation. The authors also thank Tina Tin, Ph.D., from Liwen Bianji (Edanz) (www.liwenbianji.cn/), for editing the English text of a draft of this manuscript.

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