Risk assessment of coastal flooding disaster by storm surge based on Elevation-Area method and hydrodynamic models: Taking Bohai Bay as an example

Abstract

The future inundation by storm surge on coastal areas are currently ill-defined. With increasing global sea-level due to climate change, the coastal flooding by storm surge is more and more frequently, especially in coastal lowland with land subsidence. Therefore, the risk assessment of such inundation for these areas is of great significance for the sustainable socio-economic development. In this paper, the authors use Elevation-Area method and Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS) model to assess the risk of the inundation of Bohai Bay by storm surge. The simulation results of Elevation-Area method show that either a 50-year or 100-year storm surge can inundate coastal areas exceeding 8000 km²; the numerical simulation results based on hydrodynamics, considering ground friction and duration of the storm surge high water, show that a 50-year or 100-year storm surge can only inundate an area of over 2000 km², which is far less than 8000 km²; while, when taking into account the land subsidence and sea level rise, the very inundation range will rapidly increase by 2050 and 2100. The storm surge will greatly impact the coastal area within about 10-30 km of the Bohai Bay, in where almost all major coastal projects are located. The prompt response to flood disaster due to storm surge is urgently needed, for which five suggestions have been proposed based on the geological background of Bohai Bay. This study may offer insight into the development of the response and adaptive plans for flooding disasters caused by storm surge.

Keywords

Storm surge / ROMS / Elevation-Area method / Numerical simulation / Land subsidence / Flooding disaster / Sea level rise / Marine geological survey engineering / Geological disaster survey engineering / Bohai Bay

CRediT authorship contribution statement

Fu Wang and Yong Li conceived of the presented idea

and wrote the manuscript in consultation. Xue-zheng Liu, Yong Li and Heng Yu developed the numerical models. Fu Wang, Yong Li and Xue-zheng Liu provided figures and tables in the manuscript. Heng Yu, Ming-zheng Wen and Yun-zhuang Hu helped supervise the project. All authors discussed the results and contributed to the final manuscript.

Declaration of competing interest

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

Acknowledgment

This work is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42293261), projects of the China Geological Survey (DD20230091, DD20189506, DD20211301), the 2024 Qinhuangdao City level Science and Technology Plan Self-Financing Project (Research on data processing methods for wave buoys in nearshore waters) and the project of Hebei University of Environmental Engineering (GCZ202301).

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