Regional prioritization in vehicle electrification and renewable electricity expansion facilitates decarbonization of China’s road transport

Abstract

Previous studies indicate that rapid electric vehicle (EV) adoption, together with synchronized expansion of renewable electricity (RE) in all power grid regions, could significantly reduce life cycle carbon emissions from China’s road transport sector. However, the varying pace of EV and RE development in different regions complicates this goal. There is a lack of research analyzing the impact of prioritizing vehicle electrification and RE expansion within specific power grid regions on national life cycle carbon emission reductions. This study employed a highly disaggregated engineering-based model to estimate the life cycle carbon emissions from China’s road transport from the base year 2020 up to 2050 under various EV and RE development scenarios with different regional priorities. The underlying reasons and key processes driving variations in carbon emission reductions at the power grid region level were also analyzed. Our results indicate that the Central and Northwest power grid regions contributed the most and least to life cycle carbon emissions in 2020, respectively. Implementing fast RE and EV development pathways in the North, Northeast, and Northwest power grid regions (where emissions are mainly from vehicle use and the energy supply chains) while maintaining baseline pathways in Central, East, and South could reduce national life cycle carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from 2,186 Mt in 2020 to 1,486 Mt in 2050. Conversely, focusing on fast RE and EV development in the Central, East, and South regions, where vehicle and battery production is mainly located, would only reduce emissions to 1,901 Mt by 2050. Our findings suggest that prioritizing synchronized fast RE and EV development at a power grid region level would be more effective than doing so at a national level in reducing the overall life cycle CO₂ emissions from China’s road transport by 2050. Light-duty passenger vehicles, heavy-duty trucks, and light-duty trucks are the main vehicle types contributing to CO₂ emissions in various regional prioritization in vehicle electrification and RE expansion.

Keywords

Life cycle analysis / prioritizing strategies / power grid regions / electric vehicle development pathways / renewable energy expansion pathways / carbon emissions / road transport sector / China

References

[1] Executive summary. An energy sector roadmap to carbon neutrality in China. IEA (2021) Paris. https://www.iea.org/reports/an-energy-sector-roadmap-to-carbon-neutrality-in-china/executive-summary (accessed 2025-10-28).

[2] CO₂ Emissions by country. Worldometer. https://www.worldometers.info/co2-emissions/co2-emissions-by-country/ (accessed 2025-10-28).

[3] Lu Q,Shi H.Decarbonization scenarios and carbon reduction potential for China’s road transportation by 2060.npj Urban Sustain2022;2:34

[4] Zhang R.Deployment of electric vehicles in China to meet the carbon neutral target by 2060: Provincial disparities in energy systems, CO₂ emissions, and cost effectiveness.Resour Conserv Recycl2021;170:105622

[5] Li X.Fast penetration of electric vehicles in China cannot achieve steep cuts in air emissions from road transport without synchronized renewable electricity expansion.Energy2024;301:131737

[6] Yao X,Zhao F.Economic and climate benefits of vehicle-to-grid for low-carbon transitions of power systems: a case study of China’s 2030 renewable energy target.J Clean Prod2022;330:129833

[7] New energy vehicle industry development plan (2021-2035). https://www.gov.cn/zhengce/zhengceku/2020-11/02/content_5556716.htm (accessed 2025-10-28).

[8] Xia X,Xia Z,Cheng Y.Life cycle carbon footprint of electric vehicles in different countries: a review.Sep Purif Technol2022;301:122063

[9] Li F,Xiao X.Regional comparison of electric vehicle adoption and emission reduction effects in China.Resour Conserv Recycl2019;149:714-26

[10] Shafique M.Environmental life cycle assessment of battery electric vehicles from the current and future energy mix perspective.J Environ Manage2022;303:114050

[11] Li X,Qu Y,Yan X.Effect of electric vehicles and renewable electricity on future life cycle air emissions from China’s road transport fleet.Energy2025;318:134969

[12] Xia X.A review of the life cycle assessment of electric vehicles: considering the influence of batteries.Sci Total Environ2022;814:152870

[13] Shafique M,Rafiq M.Life cycle assessment of electric vehicles and internal combustion engine vehicles: a case study of Hong Kong.Res Transp Econ2022;91:101112

[14] Safarian S.Environmental and energy impacts of battery electric and conventional vehicles: a study in Sweden under recycling scenarios.Fuel Commun2023;14:100083

[15] Franzò S.The environmental impact of electric vehicles: a novel life cycle-based evaluation framework and its applications to multi-country scenarios.J Clean Prod2021;315:128005

[16] Duan S,Liu Z.Impact assessment of vehicle electrification pathways on emissions of CO₂ and air pollution in Xi’an, China.Sci Total Environ2023;893:164856

[17] Wang L,Huang K,Li X.The inharmonious mechanism of CO₂, NO_x, SO₂, and PM_2.5 electric vehicle emission reductions in Northern China.J Environ Manage2020;274:111236

[18] Yuksel T.Effects of regional temperature on electric vehicle efficiency, range, and emissions in the United States.Environ Sci Technol2015;49:3974-80

[19] Wu D,Field FR III.Regional heterogeneity in the emissions benefits of electrified and lightweighted light-duty vehicles.Environ Sci Technol2019;53:10560-70

[20] Gan Y,He X.Provincial greenhouse gas emissions of gasoline and plug-in electric vehicles in China: comparison from the consumption-based electricity perspective.Environ Sci Technol2021;55:6944-56

[21] Choi H,Woo J.Effect of electricity generation mix on battery electric vehicle adoption and its environmental impact.Energy Policy2018;121:13-24

[22] Shen W,Wallington TJ.Current and future greenhouse gas emissions associated with electricity generation in China: implications for electric vehicles.Environ Sci Technol2014;48:7069-75

[23] Hu D,Hu R.Provincial inequalities in life cycle carbon dioxide emissions and air pollutants from electric vehicles in China.Commun Earth Environ2024;5:726

[24] Tamayao MAM,Hendrickson C.Regional variability and uncertainty of electric vehicle life cycle CO₂ emissions across the United States.Environ Sci Technol2015;49:8844-55

[25] Duan C.Grid congestion stymies climate benefit from U.S. vehicle electrification.Nat Commun2025;16:7242 PMCID:PMC12328610

[26] Moro A.Electricity carbon intensity in European Member States: Impacts on GHG emissions of electric vehicles.Transp Res D Transp Environ2018;64:5-14 PMCID:PMC6358150

[27] Ellingsen L, Jayne Thorne R, Wind J, Figenbaum E, Romare M, Nordelöf A. Life cycle assessment of battery electric buses.Transp Res Part D Transp Environ2022;112:103498

[28] Abdul-Manan AFN,Agarwal AK.Electrifying passenger road transport in India requires near-term electricity grid decarbonisation.Nat Commun2022;13:2095 PMCID:PMC9018792

[29] Aryan Y,Dikshit AK.Comparative life cycle assessment of battery electric vehicles in developing countries under current and future electricity mix scenarios.Discov Sustain2025;6:675

[30] Peng T,Ou X.Development and application of life-cycle energy consumption and carbon footprint analysis model for passenger vehicles in China.Energy2023;282:128412

[31] Guo X,Ren D.Life cycle carbon emission and cost-effectiveness analysis of electric vehicles in China.Energy Sustain Dev2023;72:1-10

[32] Zhang H,Hao H.Comparative analysis of life cycle greenhouse gas emission of passenger cars: a case study in China.Energy2023;265:126282

[33] Gan Y,He X,Amer AA.Cradle-to-grave lifecycle analysis of greenhouse gas emissions of light-duty passenger vehicles in China: towards a carbon-neutral future.Sustainability2023;15:2627

[34] Qiao Q,Liu Z,Hao H.Cradle-to-gate greenhouse gas emissions of battery electric and internal combustion engine vehicles in China.Applied Energy2017;204:1399-411

[35] Tang B,Wang M.Life cycle assessment of battery electric and internal combustion engine vehicles considering the impact of electricity generation mix: a case study in China.Atmosphere2022;13:252

[36] Yu Y,Cheng J.Which type of electric vehicle is worth promoting mostly in the context of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality? A case study for a metropolis in China.Sci Total Environ2022;837:155626

[37] Yang L,Yang B,Malima G.Life cycle environmental assessment of electric and internal combustion engine vehicles in China.J Clean Prod2021;285:124899

[38] Chen Q,Gu H.Investigating carbon footprint and carbon reduction potential using a cradle-to-cradle LCA approach on lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles in China.J Clean Prod2022;369:133342

[39] Qiao Q,Liu Z,Hao H.Life cycle greenhouse gas emissions of electric vehicles in China: combining the vehicle cycle and fuel cycle.Energy2019;177:222-33

[40] Liu D,Sadia UH.Evaluating the CO₂ emission reduction effect of China’s battery electric vehicle promotion efforts.Atmos Pollut Res2021;12:101115

[41] China’s NEV market penetration rate at 5.4% in 2020: industry report. https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202108/27/WS61284d64a310efa1bd66b8ed.html (accessed 2025-10-28).

[42] China Electricity Council. China electric power statistical yearbook 2021, China Statistics Press. https://www.stats.gov.cn/zs/tjwh/tjkw/tjzl/202302/t20230215_1907998.html (accessed 2025-10-28).

[43] National Bureau of Statistics. China statistical yearbook 2021. https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/ndsj/2021/indexeh.htm (accessed 2025-10-28).

[44] Peng T,Yuan Z,Zhang X.Development and application of China provincial road transport energy demand and GHG emissions analysis model.Appl Energy2018;222:313-28

[45] China automotive industry yearbook 2021, China Association of Automobile Manufacturers. https://www.shujuku.org/china-automobile-industry-yearbook.html (accessed 2025-10-31).

[46] China Electronics and Information Industry Development Research Institute. White paper on the development of lithium-ion battery industry. 2021 Edition. https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1715028998120746039&wfr=spider&for=pc (accessed 2025-10-31).

[47] ecoinvent. Data with purpose: ecoinvent is a trusted global resource for environmental data. https://ecoinvent.org/ (accessed 2025-10-28).

[48] OpenLca.org. openLCA is a free, professional Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and footprint software with a broad range of features and many available databases, developed by GreenDelta since 2006. https://www.openlca.org/ (accessed 2025-10-28).

[49] China State Council. Guidelines for expediting the development of a circular waste management system. https://www.gov.cn/zhengce/zhengceku/202402/content_6931080.htm (accessed 2025-10-28).

[50] Wang X,Hou X.Barriers analysis to Chinese waste photovoltaic module recycling under the background of “double carbon”.Renew Energy2023;214:39-54

[51] Baldassarre B.Critical raw materials, circular economy, sustainable development: EU policy reflections for future research and innovation.Resour Conserv Recycl2025;215:108060

[52] Bleischwitz R,Huang B.The circular economy in China: Achievements, challenges and potential implications for decarbonisation.Resour Conserv Recycl2022;183:106350

[53] Xu C,Gaines L,Tukker A.Future material demand for automotive lithium-based batteries.Commun Mater2020;1:99

[54] Maisel F,Marscheider-weidemann F.A forecast on future raw material demand and recycling potential of lithium-ion batteries in electric vehicles.Resour Conserv Recycl2023;192:106920

[55] Jiang R,Feng W.Impact of electric vehicle battery recycling on reducing raw material demand and battery life-cycle carbon emissions in China.Sci Rep2025;15:2267 PMCID:PMC11748696

[56] Yu M,Xiong S.Evaluating environmental impacts and economic performance of remanufacturing electric vehicle lithium-ion batteries.J Clean Prod2021;321:128935

[57] Chen Q,Hou Y.Investigating the environmental impacts of different direct material recycling and battery remanufacturing technologies on two types of retired lithium-ion batteries from electric vehicles in China.Sep Purif Technol2023;308:122966

[58] Qiao Q,Liu Z.Electric vehicle recycling in China: economic and environmental benefits.Resour Conserv Recycl2019;140:45-53

[59] Majewski P,Jit J.End-of-life policy considerations for wind turbine blades.Renew Sustain Energy Rev2022;164:112538

[60] Alavi Z,Florin N,Hoadley A.End-of-life wind turbine blade management across energy transition: a life cycle analysis.Resour Conserv Recycl2025;213:108008

[61] Yuan X.Life cycle assessment of decommissioned silicon photovoltaic module recycling using different technological configurations in China.J Environ Manage2024;370:122476

[62] Luk JM,De Kleine R,MacLean HL.Review of the fuel saving, life cycle GHG emission, and ownership cost impacts of lightweighting vehicles with different powertrains.Environ Sci Technol2017;51:8215-28

[63] Raugei M,Hutchinson A.A coherent life cycle assessment of a range of lightweighting strategies for compact vehicles.J Clean Prod2015;108:1168-76

[64] Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of the People’s Republic of China. Industry standard specifications for the comprehensive utilization of waste power batteries from new energy vehicles (2024 Edition). https://www.miit.gov.cn/jgsj/jns/wjfb/art/2024/art_a05ad4164f20482088a97fcbff80b987.html (accessed 2025-10-31).