From carbon emissions scenario simulation to source-sink integration technological pathways in central business districts

Abstract

This study explores low-carbon transition strategies for central business districts (CBDs) using Qingpu New Town in Shanghai, China, as a case study. Employing a dual-path approach - combining top-down scenario simulation with bottom-up technological decarbonization potential accounting - we model carbon emissions from 2022 to 2040 under four scenarios: Business-As-Usual, General Development, Balanced Development, and High-Quality Development. Under the High-Quality Development scenario, carbon emissions peak in 2028 and decline by 47.3% compared with the Business-As-Usual scenario by 2040. Building on these results, six sectoral source-sink integration technological pathways - covering buildings, energy, transportation, solid waste, water resources, and carbon sinks - are evaluated. Results show that energy-efficient building design plays a leading role in emission reduction, while energy storage and optimization of green travel structures become increasingly important. All scenario-specific technology packages meet their projected reduction targets. The study recommends integrating scenario planning into CBD development processes, incentivizing multi-sectoral technological synergies, and fostering collaborative governance. These insights provide a practical roadmap for the low-carbon transformation of CBDs, aligning with China’s carbon neutrality goals.

Keywords

Central business district / low-carbon technology / technological pathway

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