Minimizing inequality between methane emissions and economic variations in the Belt and Road countries

Abstract

The steady increase in global methane (CH₄) emissions has recently drawn international attention. However, CH₄ emissions in countries along the Belt and Road (B&R) remain underexamined. This study applies a multi-regional input-output analysis to quantify production-based emissions (PBEs) and consumption-based emissions (CBEs) across China and 138 countries and economies within the B&R region. It further employs the Lorenz curve and Gini coefficient to assess inequality in CH₄ emissions across income groups in these countries and examines the degree of decoupling between CH₄ emissions and economic variations. CH₄ emissions from B&R countries contributed significantly to the global total, with major contributions from energy- and resource-intensive sectors such as agriculture, petroleum, chemical and non-metallic mineral products, construction, financial intermediation, and commercial activities. Across the region, CBEs were consistently lower than PBEs but showed a stronger upward trend. Significant inequality in CH₄ emissions was observed, particularly in PBEs within high-income (H-H) countries and CBEs within low-income (L-L) countries. Over time, the gap between PBEs and CBEs in H-H countries narrowed, suggesting positive changes in economic structures or consumption patterns. By analyzing the spatial and temporal evolution of CH₄ emissions, this study provides insights and policy recommendations for reducing CH₄ emission inequality and developing effective mitigation strategies within the B&R region.

Keywords

Belt and Road initiative / methane emissions / multi-regional input-output modeling / decoupling decomposition

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