Challenges and strategies in estimating soil organic carbon for multi-cropping systems: a review

Abstract

Multi-cropping systems play a crucial role in global agricultural production. Accurately estimating the soil carbon sequestration capacity of multi-cropping systems is of significant importance for enhancing agricultural productivity, mitigating greenhouse gas emissions, and reducing carbon footprint. However, soil carbon cycling is more complex in multi-cropping systems compared with single-cropping systems, and existing assessment methods cannot accurately estimate soil carbon sequestration in multi-cropping systems with high operability. Here, we reviewed the accuracy and efficiency of the three primary global soil carbon assessment methods, including statistical models, process-based models, and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) steady-state method. Our study concludes that it is difficult to simulate the dynamic evolution of soil organic carbon (SOC) using the statistical models, while the well simulation through process-based models demands a large amount of data. Additionally, the IPCC Tier 2 method cannot be directly applied to estimate SOC in multi-cropping systems due to mismatches in parameters and time steps. We suggest modifying the structures and parameters of the IPCC Tier 2 method by revising the inventory unit and redetermining the parameter values, which should efficiently address its bottleneck in estimating SOC for multi-cropping systems. Moreover, long-term experimental observations and multi-model ensemble simulations are beneficial for determining the parameter values to address the data deficiencies in IPCC Tier 2. This study aims to explore pathways for improving the accuracy of SOC estimation in multi-cropping systems and, thus, carbon footprint calculation worldwide.

Keywords

Soil organic carbon / carbon footprint / statistical models / process-based models / steady-state method

References

[1] Scharlemann JP,Hiederer R.Global soil carbon: understanding and managing the largest terrestrial carbon pool.Carbon Manag2014;5:81-91

[2] Zou J,Shi S.Farm-scale practical strategies to reduce carbon footprint and emergy while increasing economic benefits in crop production in the North China plain.J J Clean Prod2022;359:131996

[3] 4 per 1000 research program, 2017. Available from: https://4p1000.org/?lang=en. [Last accessed on 25 Nov 2024]

[4] Lal R.Agricultural activities and the global carbon cycle.Nutr Cycl Agroecosys2004;70:103-16

[5] Borrelli P,Fleischer LR.An assessment of the global impact of 21st century land use change on soil erosion.Nat Commun2017;8:2013 PMCID:PMC5722879

[6] Zomer RJ,Sommer R.Global sequestration potential of increased organic carbon in cropland soils.Sci Rep2017;7:15554 PMCID:PMC5686149

[7] Henry B,Harrison MT. Creating frameworks to foster soil carbon sequestration. In: Rumpel C, editor. Understanding and fostering soil carbon sequestration. Burleigh Dodds Science Publishing Limited. 2023; pp.767-808. Available from: https://library.oapen.org/handle/20.500.12657/61538. [Last accessed on 22 Nov 2024]

[8] Sándor R,Grace P.Ensemble modelling of carbon fluxes in grasslands and croplands.Field Crop Res2020;252:107791

[9] Ren W,Tao B,Huang Y.Global pattern and change of cropland soil organic carbon during 1901-2010: Roles of climate, atmospheric chemistry, land use and management.Geogr Sustain2020;1:59-69

[10] Lal R.Soil carbon sequestration impacts on global climate change and food security.Science2004;304:1623-7

[11] Muleke A,Eisner R.Clarifying confusions over carbon conclusions: antecedent soil carbon drives gains realised following intervention.Glob. Environ Change Adv2023;1:100001

[12] Poeplau C.Carbon sequestration in agricultural soils via cultivation of cover crops - a meta-analysis.Agric Ecosyst Environ2015;200:33-41

[13] Brewer KM.Potential of crop-livestock integration to enhance carbon sequestration and agroecosystem functioning in semi-arid croplands.Soil Biol Biochem2020;149:107936

[14] Gaudaré U,Smith P.Soil organic carbon stocks potentially at risk of decline with organic farming expansion.Nat Clim Change2023;13:719-25

[15] Gregorich EG,Ellert BH.Litter decay controlled by temperature, not soil properties, affecting future soil carbon.Glob Chang Biol2017;23:1725-34

[16] Chenu C,Barré P,Arrouays D.Increasing organic stocks in agricultural soils: knowledge gaps and potential innovations.Soil Till Res2019;188:41-52

[17] Amelung W,de Vries W.Towards a global-scale soil climate mitigation strategy.Nat Commun2020;11:5427 PMCID:PMC7591914

[18] Kan ZR,Liu WS.Mechanisms of soil organic carbon stability and its response to no-till: a global synthesis and perspective.Glob Chang Biol2022;28:693-710

[19] Bilotto F,Migliorati MA.Can seasonal soil N mineralisation trends be leveraged to enhance pasture growth?.Sci Total Environ2021;772:145031

[20] Bilotto F,Mackay A,Harrison MT.Towards an integrated phosphorus, carbon and nitrogen cycling model for topographically diverse grasslands.Nutr Cycl Agroecosyst2022;124:153-72

[21] Yin X,Shi S.Developments and prospects of multiple cropping in China.Farm Syst2024;2:100083

[22] Waha K,Portmann FT.Multiple cropping systems of the world and the potential for increasing cropping intensity.Glob Environ Chang.2020;64:102131 PMCID:PMC7737095

[23] Zhao X,Cai S.Legacy nitrogen fertilizer in a rice-wheat cropping system flows to crops more than the environment.Sci Bull2024;69:1212-6

[24] Wang C,Zhang Y.Integrating microbial community properties, biomass and necromass to predict cropland soil organic carbon.ISME Commun2023;3:86 PMCID:PMC10447565

[25] Garsia A,Vazquez C,Moinet GYK.The challenge of selecting an appropriate soil organic carbon simulation model: a comprehensive global review and validation assessment.Glob Chang Biol2023;29:5760-74

[26] Chen T,Zheng Z.Soil bacterial community in the multiple cropping system increased grain yield within 40 cultivation years.Front Plant Sci2021;12:804527 PMCID:PMC8721226

[27] Kroschewski B,Baumecker M.Effect of crop rotation and straw application in combination with mineral nitrogen fertilization on soil carbon sequestration in the thyrow long-term experiment thy_D5.Plant Soil2023;488:121-36

[28] Parton WJ,Ojima DS et al.Observations and modeling of biomass and soil organic matter dynamics for the grassland biome worldwide.Glob Biogeochem Cycles1993;7:785-809

[29] Li S,Li C.Testing the RothC and DNDC models against long-term dynamics of soil organic carbon stock observed at cropping field soils in North China.Soil Till Res2016;163:290-7

[30] Tao F,Hungate BA.Microbial carbon use efficiency promotes global soil carbon storage.Nature2023;618:981-5 PMCID:PMC10307633

[31] Cotrufo MF,Haddix ML,Lugato E.Soil carbon storage informed by particulate and mineral-associated organic matter.Nat Geosci2019;12:989-94

[32] Weil R. The nature and properties of soils. 15th ed. Pearson International; 2016. p.1104. Available from: https://elibrary.pearson.de/book/99.150005/9781292162249. [Last accessed on 25 Nov 2024]

[33] Bronick C.Soil structure and management: a review.Geoderma2005;124:3-22

[34] Drewnik M,Szymański W.Mineral composition vs. soil forming processes in loess soils - a case study from Kraków (Southern Poland).CATENA2014;119:166-73

[35] Muhammad H,Saud S.A Paradigm shift towards beneficial microbes enhancing the efficiency of organic and inorganic nitrogen sources for a sustainable environment.Land2023;12:680

[36] Kögel-knabner I.The macromolecular organic composition of plant and microbial residues as inputs to soil organic matter.Soil Biol Biochem2002;34:139-62

[37] Kögel-knabner I.The macromolecular organic composition of plant and microbial residues as inputs to soil organic matter: fourteen years on.Soil Biol Biochem2017;105:A3-8

[38] Angst G,Castellano MJ,Wiesmeier M.Unlocking complex soil systems as carbon sinks: multi-pool management as the key.Nat Commun2023;14:2967 PMCID:PMC10272151

[39] Huang Q,Wang B.Metabolic pathways of CO₂ fixing microorganisms determined C-fixation rates in grassland soils along the precipitation gradient.Soil Biol Biochem2022;172:108764

[40] Wu J,Zhang J.Temporal and spatial effects of crop diversity on soil carbon and nitrogen storage and vertical distribution.Soil Tillage Res2024;235:105913

[41] Lin BJ,Liu KC.Management-induced changes in soil organic carbon and related crop yield dynamics in China's cropland.Glob Chang Biol2023;29:3575-90

[42] Bonkowski M.Protozoa and plant growth: the microbial loop in soil revisited.New Phytol2004;162:617-31

[43] Singh S,Singh K.Variations in soil microbial biomass and crop roots due to differing resource quality inputs in a tropical dryland agroecosystem.Soil Biol Biochem2007;39:76-86

[44] Baumann K,Smernik RJ.Residue chemistry and microbial community structure during decomposition of eucalypt, wheat and vetch residues.Soil Biol Biochem2009;41:1966-75

[45] Kuzyakov Y.Priming effects: Interactions between living and dead organic matter.Soil Biol Biochem2010;42:1363-71

[46] Fontaine S,Aamor A.Fungi mediate long term sequestration of carbon and nitrogen in soil through their priming effect.Soil Biol Biochem2011;43:86-96

[47] Hall SJ,Moore AR.Do corn-soybean rotations enhance decomposition of soil organic matter?.Plant Soil2019;444:427-42

[48] Panettieri M,Chemidlin Prevost-bouré N.Grassland-cropland rotation cycles in crop-livestock farming systems regulate priming effect potential in soils through modulation of microbial communities, composition of soil organic matter and abiotic soil properties.Agr Ecosyst Environ2020;299:106973

[49] Timsina J.Productivity and management of rice-wheat cropping systems: issues and challenges.Field Crop Res2001;69:93-132

[50] Chen X,Feng S.Lignin and cellulose dynamics with straw incorporation in two contrasting cropping soils.Sci Rep2018;8:1633 PMCID:PMC5786085

[51] Yang C,Ouyang Z.Organic carbon and its fractions in paddy soil as affected by different nutrient and water regimes.Geoderma2005;124:133-42

[52] Wang Y,He JS.Iron-mediated soil carbon response to water-table decline in an alpine wetland.Nat Commun2017;8:15972 PMCID:PMC5490263

[53] Chen X,Xia Y.Contrasting pathways of carbon sequestration in paddy and upland soils.Glob Chang Biol2021;27:2478-90 PMCID:PMC8251767

[54] Viaud V,Walter C.Toward landscape-scale modeling of soil organic matter dynamics in agroecosystems.Soil Sci Soc Am J2010;74:1847-60

[55] Burke IC,Parton WJ,Flach K.Texture, climate, and cultivation effects on soil organic matter content in U.S. grassland soils.Soil Sci Soc Am J1989;53:800-5

[56] Evans SE,Lauenroth WK.Controls on soil organic carbon and nitrogen in Inner Mongolia, China: a cross-continental comparison of temperate grasslands.Global Biogeochem Cycles2011;25:B3006

[57] Were K,Dick ØB.A comparative assessment of support vector regression, artificial neural networks, and random forests for predicting and mapping soil organic carbon stocks across an afromontane landscape.Ecol Indic2015;52:394-403

[58] Meersmans J,Canters F,Van Molle M.A multiple regression approach to assess the spatial distribution of soil organic carbon (SOC) at the regional scale (Flanders, Belgium).Geoderma2008;143:1-13

[59] Yang Y,Zou J.Optimizing crop rotation increases soil carbon and reduces GHG emissions without sacrificing yields.Agr Ecosyst Environ2023;342:108220

[60] Sándor R,Basso B.C and N models intercomparison - benchmark and ensemble model estimates for grassland production.Adv Anim Biosci2016;7:245-7

[61] Malone B,Minasny B.Mapping continuous depth functions of soil carbon storage and available water capacity.Geoderma2009;154:138-52

[62] Rossel RV.Using data mining to model and interpret soil diffuse reflectance spectra.Geoderma2010;158:46-54

[63] Grimm R,Märker M.Soil organic carbon concentrations and stocks on barro colorado island - digital soil mapping using random forests analysis.Geoderma2008;146:102-13

[64] Lamichhane S,Wilson B.Digital soil mapping algorithms and covariates for soil organic carbon mapping and their implications: a review.Geoderma2019;352:395-413

[65] Harrison MT,Zavattaro L.Simple, efficient and robust techniques for automatic multi-objective function parameterisation: case studies of local and global optimisation using APSIM.Environ Modell Softw2019;117:109-33

[66] Parton WJ,Cole CV.Analysis of factors controlling soil organic matter levels in great plains grasslands.Soil Sci Soc Am J1987;51:1173-9

[67] Probert M,Kimani S.Modelling nitrogen mineralization from manures: representing quality aspects by varying C:N ratio of sub-pools.Soil Biol Biochem2005;37:279-87

[68] Hansen, P. Abrahamsen, C. T. Petersen, M. Styczen. Daisy: model use, calibration, and validation.Tran ASABE2012;55:1317-35

[69] Qiu J,Wang L,Li H.Modeling impacts of carbon sequestration on net greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural soils in China.Global Biogeochem Cy2009;23:2008GB003180

[70] Levavasseur F,Houot S.C and N dynamics with repeated organic amendments can be simulated with the STICS model.Nutr Cycl Agroecosyst2021;119:103-21

[71] Gijsman AJ,Parton WJ.Modifying DSSAT crop models for low-input agricultural systems using a soil organic matter-residue module from CENTURY.Agrono J2002;94:462-74

[72] Parton WJ,Ojima D.DAYCENT and its land surface submodel: description and testing.Global Planet Change1998;19:35-48

[73] Li C.Modeling trace gas emissions from agricultural ecosystems.Nutr Cycl Agroecosys2000;58:259-76

[74] Necpálová M,Fienen MN.Understanding the DayCent model: calibration, sensitivity, and identifiability through inverse modeling.Environ Modell Softw2015;66:110-30

[75] Probert ME,Keating BA,Strong WM.APSIM's water and nitrogen modules and simulation of the dynamics of water and nitrogen in fallow systems.Agr syst1998; 56:1-28

[76] Baum ME,Nafziger ED.Evaluating and improving APSIM's capacity in simulating long-term corn yield response to nitrogen in continuous - and rotated-corn systems.Agric Syst2023;207:103629

[77] Luo Y,Zhang L.Spatiotemporal patterns of winter wheat phenology and its climatic drivers based on an improved pDSSAT model.Sci China Earth Sci2021;64:2144-60

[78] Laub M,Demyan MS.Modeling temperature sensitivity of soil organic matter decomposition: splitting the pools.Soil Biol. Biochem2021;153:108108

[79] Gilhespy SL,Cardenas L.First 20 years of DNDC (DeNitrification DeComposition): model evolution.Ecol Modell2014;292:51-62

[80] Brisson N,Justes E,Mary B.An overview of the crop model STICS.Eur J Agron2003;18:309-32

[81] Luo Z,Sun OJ,Probert ME.Modeling long-term soil carbon dynamics and sequestration potential in semi-arid agro-ecosystems.Agr Forest Meteorol2011;151:1529-44

[82] Luo Z,Sharma B.Mapping future soil carbon change and its uncertainty in croplands using simple surrogates of a complex farming system model.Geoderma2019;337:311-21

[83] Caride C,Paruelo JM.How does agricultural management modify ecosystem services in the argentine pampas?.Agr Ecosyst Environ2012;154:23-33

[84] Kraus D,Klatt S.How well can we assess impacts of agricultural land management changes on the total greenhouse gas balance (CO₂, CH₄ and N₂O) of tropical rice-cropping systems with a biogeochemical model?.Agr Ecosyst Environ2016;224:104-15

[85] Wang G,Han P,Xu J.Critical carbon input to maintain current soil organic carbon stocks in global wheat systems.Sci Rep2016;6:19327 PMCID:PMC4725856

[86] Kucharik CJ,Norman JM,Gower ST.Measurements and modeling of carbon and nitrogen cycling in agroecosystems of southern wisconsin: potential for SOC Sequestration during the next 50 years.Ecosystems2001;4:237-58

[87] Liu DL,Conyers MK.Simulation of soil organic carbon under different tillage and stubble management practices using the Rothamsted carbon model.Soil Till Res2009;104:65-73

[88] Lehmann J,Kaiser C.Persistence of soil organic carbon caused by functional complexity.Nat Geosci2020;13:529-34

[89] Moinet GYK,van Vuuren DP.Carbon for soils, not soils for carbon.Glob Chang Biol2023;29:2384-98

[90] Dynarski KA,Scow KM.Dynamic stability of soil carbon: reassessing the “permanence” of soil carbon sequestration.Front Environ Sci2020;8:514701

[91] Fujita Y,van Bodegom PM.Incorporating microbial ecology concepts into global soil mineralization models to improve predictions of carbon and nitrogen fluxes.Glob Biogeochem Cycles2014;28:223-38

[92] Bhanja SN,Bol R.Soil CO₂ emission largely dominates the total ecosystem CO₂ emission at canadian boreal forest.Front Environ Sci2022;10:898199

[93] Davidson EA,Caramori SS.The dual arrhenius and michaelis-menten kinetics model for decomposition of soil organic matter at hourly to seasonal time scales.Global Change Biol2012;18:371-84

[94] Sihi D,Chen M.Merging a mechanistic enzymatic model of soil heterotrophic respiration into an ecosystem model in two AmeriFlux sites of northeastern USA.Agric For Meteorol2018;252:155-66

[95] Smith P.Modelling refractory soil organic matter.Biol Fert Soils2000;30:388-98

[96] Zimmermann M,Schmidt MWI,Fuhrer J.Measured soil organic matter fractions can be related to pools in the RothC model.Eu J Soil Sci2007;58:658-67

[97] Bruun S.Initialisation of the soil organic matter pools of the daisy model.Ecol Mode2002;153:291-5

[98] Dimassi B,Saby NP.The impacts of CENTURY model initialization scenarios on soil organic carbon dynamics simulation in French long-term experiments.Geoderma2018;311:25-36

[99] Kwon H.Inverse modeling of CO₂ evolved during laboratory soil incubation to link modeled pools in CENTURY with measured soil properties.Soil Sci2015;180:28-32

[100] Buendia E,Kranjc A,Fukuda M. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 2019 Refinement to the 2006 IPCC guidelines for national greenhouse gas inventories. 2019. Available from: https://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/2019rf/vol4.html. [Last accessed on 22 Nov 2024]

[101] Thiagarajan A,Macdonald JD.Prospects and challenges in the use of models to estimate the influence of crop residue input on soil organic carbon in long-term experiments in Canada.Geoderma Reg2022;30:e00534

[102] Villarino SH,Laterra P.Agricultural impact on soil organic carbon content: testing the IPCC carbon accounting method for evaluations at county scale.Agr Ecosyst Environ2014;185:118-32

[103] Yin X,Beaudoin N.Uncertainties in simulating N uptake, net N mineralization, soil mineral N and N leaching in European crop rotations using process-based models.Field Crops Res2020;255:107863

[104] Asseng S,Rosenzweig C.Uncertainty in simulating wheat yields under climate change.Nat Clim Change2013;3:827-32.

[105] Yin X,Kollas C.Multi-model uncertainty analysis in predicting grain N for crop rotations in Europe.Eur J Agron2017;84:152-65

[106] Riggers C,Don A,Höper H.Multi-model ensemble improved the prediction of trends in soil organic carbon stocks in German croplands.Geoderma2019;345:17-30

[107] Bruni E,Abramoff RZ.Multi-modelling predictions show high uncertainty of required carbon input changes to reach a 4‰ target.Eur J Soil Sci2022;73:e13330

[108] Xiao Y,Zhang X.Improving pedotransfer functions for predicting soil mineral associated organic carbon by ensemble machine learning.Geoderma2022;428:116208

[109] Yang Y,Liu L.Nitrogen fertilization weakens the linkage between soil carbon and microbial diversity: a global meta-analysis.Glob Chang Biol2022;28:6446-61

[110] Liu Y,Wang Y,He L.Negative priming effect of three kinds of biochar on the mineralization of native soil organic carbon.Land Degrad Dev2018;29:3985-94

[111] Wieder WR,Allison SD.Global soil carbon projections are improved by modelling microbial processes.Nat Clim Change2013;3:909-12

[112] Xu X,Thornton PE,Yuan F.Substrate and environmental controls on microbial assimilation of soil organic carbon: a framework for earth system models.Ecol Lett2014;17:547-55