Analysis on Economic Resilience of the GuangdongHong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area: A Perspective from the Economic Connection Network

Abstract

In the face of an increasingly complex and unstable external development environment, enhancing economic resilience has become a key task in the construction of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area. This paper analyzes the changes in the economic resilience of the Guangdong-Hong KongMacao Greater Bay Area and its constituent cities after the 2008 global financial crisis by virtue of the regional economic resilience assessment method proposed by Martin et al. It constructs an economic connection network for the Guangdong-Hong KongMacao Greater Bay Area using the data from corporate headquarters and branches of A-share listed companies to analyze its impact on the economic resilience of the Area. The study reveals the three following conclusions. Firstly, the economic resilience of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area generally outperforms the national average level, seeing a rapid boost over the recent years and exceeding the level witnessed during the 2008 financial crisis. However, there are marked disparities in the economic resilience of various cities within the Greater Bay Area, with Shenzhen, Guangzhou, and Dongguan emerging as the most robust in this regard. Secondly, the economic connection network has a positive impact on the economic resilience of the cities in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area. Specifically, there is a positive correlation between a city’s economic resilience and its centrality in the economic connection network. Such centrality exerts a positive spillover effect on the economic resilience of surrounding cities. Thirdly, from the perspective of industryspecific networks, circulation and service industry networks are more conducive to improving the economic resilience of a city. Given the significant role of the economic connection network in shaping regional and urban economic resilience, it is imperative for the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area to prioritize ensuring economic development security and enhancing economic resilience,promote the development of the economic connection network, and enhance the network centrality of its constituent cities. This can improve the economic resilience of itself and its constituent cities in an effective manner.

Key words： economic resilience, economic connection network, network centrality; Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area