Transition to Hydrogen Aviation: A 2030-2050 Scenario Performance Analysis for an Airline

Abstract

This study presents a realistic hypothetical scenario-based analysis of an airline’s transition from kerosene to hydrogen propulsion between 2030 and 2050, under a Techno-Economic Environmental Risk Assessment (TERA) framework. Two scenarios are modelled: a baseline fleet scenario using only conventional CMRT and CLRT aircraft, and a hydrogen transition scenario that introduces hydrogen-powered Airbus ZEROe and HVLMR aircraft starting in 2035. Using detailed aircraft (Orion from Cranfield) and jet engine (TURBOMATCH from Cranfield) performance simulations across 85 global routes, fuel consumption, energy demand, emissions, and operating costs are assessed. Strategic hydrogen hubs at London Heathrow and Neom Bay enable network feasibility for aircraft with limited range. Key findings show that the hydrogen scenario reduces total fuel mass consumption by approximately 28%, due to hydrogen’s high specific energy, and cuts CO₂ emissions by 49%, assuming green hydrogen usage. However, it also results in a 9.6% increase in energy demand and ~15-20% higher cumulative operating costs, driven by greater depreciation, maintenance, and fuel price premiums. While the hydrogen transition introduces higher upfront and operational costs, it offers long-term environmental benefits and compliance with net-zero aviation goals. The study concludes that hydrogen aviation holds strategic promise but faces significant technical challenges, particularly due to the immaturity of hydrogen storage and propulsion systems. Realising this potential will require coordinated investment in infrastructure, policy support, and adaptive route planning.

Keywords

Hydrogen aviation / Sustainable aviation fuel / Techno-economic analysis / Environmental impact / Airline fleet transition / Aircraft performance simulation / Airline finance / Airline investment / Net-zero aviation

Author Contributions

Conceptualization, T.A.A. and P.P.; Methodology, T.A.A. and P.P.; Software, T.A.A. and E.P.; Validation, T.A.A., B.M.A. and P.P.; Formal Analysis, T.A.A., B.M.A. and P.P.; Investigation, T.A.A., B.M.A. and P.P. Resources, T.A.A., B.M.A., E.P. and P.P. Data Curation, T.A.A., B.M.A., E.P. and P.P. Writing Original Draft Preparation, T.A.A. Writing Review & Editing, T.A.A., E.P. and P.P.; Visualization, T.A.A., B.M.A.; Supervision, P.P. and E.P. Project Administration, T.A.A., B.M.A.

Ethics Statement

Not applicable.

Informed Consent Statement

Not applicable.

Data Availability Statement

The original contributions presented in this study are included in the article. Further inquiries can be directed to the corresponding authors.

Funding

This research received no external funding.

Declaration of Competing Interest

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

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