Modeling the spread risk of dengue vector Aedes albopictus caused by environmental factors in Shanghai China

Abstract

Objective: To predict the distribution of dengue vector Aedes (Ae.) albopictus and identify high-risk areas for dengue fever transmission.

Methods: Data on Ae. albopictus occurrences were collected from electronic databases. Ensemble models were developed to assess the impacts of climate, vegetation, and human activity on Ae. albopictus. The optimal ensemble model was then used to identify the distribution of suitable areas for Ae. albopictus.

Results: After removing duplicate sites and retaining only one location per 100 m × 100 m grid, 189 Ae. albopictus breeding sites were identified. The optimal ensemble model revealed that Ae. albopictus exhibited higher breeding suitability in Shanghai under specific conditions: a normalized difference vegetation index of 0.1 to 0.6, maximum precipitation in the warmest month ranging from 400 mm to 470 mm, maximum temperature in the warmest month between 30.0 °C and 31.0 °C, and proximity to waterways within 0.5 km. The most suitable habitats for Ae. albopictus were primarily concentrated in Shanghai’s central urban areas and scattered across the inner suburban districts.

Conclusions: The high-risk areas of Ae. albopictus are widely distributed throughout the central urban area and scattered across the inner suburban district of Shanghai, creating conditions conducive to the outbreak of dengue fever. It is essential to enhance targeted control measures for Ae. albopictus in the identified risk areas.

Keywords

Dengue / Spread risk / Prediction / Metropolitan / Aedes albopictus

Conflict of interest statment

The authors declare that there is no conflicting interest.

Funding

This work is supported by Three-Year Initiative Plan for Strengthening Public Health System Construction in Shanghai (2023-2025) Key Discipline Project (No. GWVI-11.1-12).

Authors' contributions

All authors contributed substantially to drafting, revising, and approving the article's final version. WJM and GYF contributed to the conception and design of the study and acquisition of the data. HJH, ZY, ZLY and SL cleared and analyzed the data. CY and JQW provided critical feedback and revised the manuscript. ZYB oversaw the project, coordinated the research, and provided significant financial support.

Data availability statement

The datasets used and/or analyzed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.

Publisher’s note

The Publisher of the Journal remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Edited by Lei Y, Zhang Q, Pan Y

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