Impacts of land use and land cover changes on groundwater recharge in the Dire Dawa watershed, Ethiopia

Abstract

Land use and land cover (LULC) change is a growing global concern, particularly in water-scarce regions, where it directly influences hydrological systems and groundwater sustainability. The Dire Dawa watershed in eastern Ethiopia exemplifies this challenge. This study investigates the impacts of LULC changes on groundwater recharge in the Dire Dawa watershed from 2000 to 2022. The LULC changes were analyzed using ERDAS IMAGINE 2015 and geographic information systems, while the effects on groundwater recharge were assessed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The performance of the SWAT model was evaluated using the sequential uncertainty fitting 2 technique, demonstrating good model performance, with R2 values of 0.84 (calibration) and 0.79 (validation), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency values of 0.75 and 0.72, and percent bias values of −0.1 and −11, respectively. The results indicated that, over the 22 years, agricultural land expanded by 52.6%, while built-up areas increased by nearly 79.2%. In contrast, shrublands and forests declined by 23.7% and 62.8%, respectively. These shifts resulted in a 24.5% reduction in groundwater recharge (−48.8 mm/y) and a 19.9% increase in surface runoff (42.8 mm/y). These findings reflect broader regional patterns and emphasize the importance of integrated land and water resource management to support ecological stability and community resilience.

Keywords

Dire Dawa watershed / Land use and land cover change / Groundwater recharge / Soil and water assessment tool / Image processing

Funding

None.

Conflict of interest

The authors declare no conflicts of interest related to this work or with any institution or organization.

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