Projected trends in extreme heat in Senegal from 2020 to 2080

Abstract

Faced with the challenges that climate change poses to all human societies, adaptation is becoming a necessity for human survival. In this context, it is necessary to study the climatic phenomena that humans face and that are likely to impact various aspects of life. Therefore, this study sought to analyze the trend of heat waves in Senegal using data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), Canadian Earth System Model Version 5. Three climate scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway [SSP]1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) were used, and the study focused on two future climate normals (2020 - 2050, 2050 - 2080). The study first spatialized the 95^th percentile of minimum, mean, and maximum temperatures, then analyzed temperature anomalies with the Lamb index before studying the future trend using the Mann-Kendall test. The results obtained reflect an upward trend for all the variables in this study for the two periods combined but with a different level of significance. This increase is greater for minimum temperatures, with rises of 0.43°C for SS1-2.6, 1.06°C for SSP2-4.5, and 2.18°C for SSP5-8.5. In comparison, maximum temperatures rose by 0.50°C, 1.05°C, and 2.03°C, respectively, between the first and second periods. Mean temperatures followed the same dynamic, with 0.48°C for SSP1-2.6, 1.04°C for SSP2-4.5, and 2.16°C for SSP5-8.5. Given these findings, it is important to analyze the behavior of the other CMIP6 models in assessing heat waves in Senegal.

Keywords

Future trends / Heat waves / Mann-Kendall test / Canadian Earth System Model Version 5 / Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 / Senegal

Funding

None.

Conflict of interest

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

References

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