Mitigating the impacts of climate change: A case study of the city of Tshwane, South Africa

Abstract

Climate change poses a major global challenge which affects human health and livelihood, ecosystem, critical sectors and infrastructure among others. The objective of this research is to investigate and mitigate the impacts of climate change in the City of Tshwane. A combination of quantitative and case study approaches was employed, with datasets obtained from the South African Weather Service, the City of Tshwane, and the Auditor-General. The data were modeled using a combination of discrete event simulation and system dynamics within the AnyLogic (version 8.2.3) environment. The results showed an increase in climate trends from 1981 to 2022, suggesting a growing frequency of heat waves, heavier rainfall, and more frequent floods, among other phenomena. The study recommends the use of simulation approaches to assess the impacts of climate change on the city’s infrastructure during the planning process. The findings can assist the City of Tshwane in planning for future climate scenarios, enabling stakeholders to develop sustainable strategies for climate change adaptation and mitigation, with the goal of creating a climate change-resilient city. If the suggested climate change policies are implemented, there would be a 15% annual decrease in extreme events (including excessive temperature, flooding, and drought), a 3% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, and a 25% decrease in gross domestic product loss, alongside a 15% improvement in infrastructure performance.

Keywords

Adaptation / Climate change / Infrastructure / Simulation

Funding

None.

Conflict of interest

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

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