Modeling and analysis of a novel two-strain dengue epidemics model considering secondary infections with increased mortality

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Abstract

In this study, we developed and analyzed a deterministic two-strain host–vector model for dengue transmission incorporating temporary cross-immunity, antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE), disease-induced mortality during secondary infections, and explicit DENV–DENV co-infection in mosquitoes. The model distinguishes primary and secondary human infections and allows co-infected mosquitoes to contribute to strain-specific transmission. We derived the basic reproduction number R₀ and established the local stability of the disease-free equilibrium, while heterologous invasion of a one- strain endemic state was characterized through the corresponding invasion dynamics. Center-manifold analysis and numerical continuation revealed backward bifurcation, bistability between disease-free and endemic states, and Hopf-induced oscillations. Numerical simulations further illustrated transitions between disease-free, endemic, and periodic regimes. These results show how ADE, waning cross- immunity, and mosquito co-infection can jointly generate complex multi-strain dengue dynamics and provide a mechanistic framework for examining how the serotype composition of the vector population influences subsequent human infections.

Keywords

multi-strain modeling / stability / bifurcation analysis / vector co-infection / numerical continuation

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