Exploring the climatic and non-climatic determinants of cereal production in Bangladesh

Abstract

Cereal production is a key component of food security and economic stability in Bangladesh; however, it is increasingly influenced by the interplay between climatic stress and non-climatic pressures, including land-use change and ecological degradation. Nevertheless, no study at the national level has jointly quantified the long-term effects of these drivers. Using a multidisciplinary systematic framework involving detrending of the time series through linear regression, followed by iterative refinement and diagnostic validation of model robustness, this study addresses that gap by evaluating annual data spanning 1961–2022. All 11 explanatory variables were subjected to model selection, which revealed that the final model retained four significant predictors: land under cereal production (LUCP), arable land, observed annual precipitation, and forest area. The results indicate that land-use structure and ecological trade-offs are stronger predictors of cereal yield than annual climatic variability alone. The strongest predictor was forest area (β = −0.607, p < 0.001), followed by LUCP (β = 0.300, p < 0.001) and arable land (β = −0.147, p = 0.012), whereas annual precipitation had an independent effect that remained statistically non-significant (β = 0.037, p = 0.303). These findings imply that climate is not the sole determinant of agricultural productivity; rather, the allocation, management, and transformation of land also play critical roles. This evidence underscores the need for policy priorities to focus on sustainable intensification of existing cereal land, restoration of degraded arable land, and integrated governance of land use. Such an approach will directly contribute to achieving Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 2 (Zero Hunger), SDG 13 (Climate Action), and SDG 15 (Life on Land).

Keywords

agricultural extension / cereal yields / climatic variables / non-climatic variables / Bangladesh

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