Small island community resilience and sea level rise modelling in the Kepulauan Seribu Administrative Regency, Jakarta, Indonesia

Abstract

Small islands such as the Kepulauan Seribu Administrative Regency face a high risk of tidal flooding and sea level rise. This study aims to analysis the resilience of coastal communities to tidal flooding and prediction the spatial distribution of flooding using a geospatial approach. The research design uses a descriptive qualitative approach combined with GIS-based spatial analysis using the Hazard Loss Estimation (HLOSS) model. Data were collected through interviews, field observations, and spatial data. The research location focused on Pramuka Island and Panggang Island. The results of the study show that community resilience is shaped by social practices such as mutual assistance, economic adaptation, and the role of local communities. Pramuka Island has better physical protection, while Panggang Island experiences high vulnerability due to low elevation and the absence of protective infrastructure. Spatial analysis indicates that over 50% of Panggang Island is at risk of flooding under extreme tidal surge scenarios. This study provides a scientific basis for adaptive spatial planning and community-based policies. An integrated approach combining social and spatial data is necessary to enhance coastal resilience to climate change.

Keywords

Community resilience / Tidal flooding / GIS / Sea level rise / Spatial prediction

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Funding

Universitas Sebelas Maret(369/UN27.22/PT.01.03/2025)

RIGHTS & PERMISSIONS

The Author(s)