Study on the influence of Tropical Cyclone Kimi on wind speed and wave height in central and eastern Indonesian waters

Abstract

Tropical Cyclone (TC) Kimi was active from January 15 to 19, 2021 in Australian waters. TC Kimi activity does influence the atmosphere and ocean dynamics around it, including in central and eastern Indonesian waters, with the highest increase in local winds occurring in Sangihe (315.8%), Gorontalo (236.3%), Seram (236.3%) dan Manado (225.8%). On the other hand, Gorontalo experienced the highest increase of significant wave height during TC Kimi active, with 921.4% increase. In this study, we analyze wave height change in central and eastern Indonesian waters before TC Kimi was active, at the peak intensity of TC Kimi, and after TC Kimi dissipated by employing Simulating Waves Nearshore (SWAN) wave model. From spatial lagged correlation analysis between wind from TC Kimi and local winds in Indonesia, we obtained 12 locations that have positive lag and correlation, namely: Denpasar, Waingapu, Rote, Majene, Gorontalo, Manado, Sangihe, Sanana, Seram, Raja Ampat, Agats dan Merauke. From time series lagged correlation, the locations that have negative lag are Denpasar (-6 h) and Rote (-1 h), those with 0 h lag are Raja Ampat and Agats, and those with positive lag are Waingapu (+ 8 h), Majene (+ 10 h), Gorontalo (+ 14 h), Manado (+ 6 h), Sangihe (+ 15 h), Sanana (+ 7 h), Seram (+ 5 h) and Merauke (+ 6 h). Surface wind analysis during the development and early phase of TC Kimi shows wind flows from Sulawesi Sea, Maluku Sea, Halmahera Sea, and Banda Sea towards the TC Kimi system. When TC Kimi approaches its strongest intensity, there are low-pressure areas (Low) that are also active, including Low in the Philippines and in the Gulf of Carpentaria, while the wind flow towards TC Kimi appears to be disconnected. Low in the Philippines and the Gulf of Carpentaria, respectively, play a role in maintaining the high waves in the northern and southern waters of Indonesia. It indicates that TC Kimi plays a role in the initial increase of wind speed in Indonesia, which is continued by the presence of Low in their respective local areas.

References

[1] Amarouche K, Akpınar A, Soran MB, Myslenkov S, Majidi AG, Kankal M, Arkhipkin V. Spatial calibration of an unstructured SWAN model forced with CFSR and ERA5 winds for the Black and Azov Seas Appl Ocean Res, 2021, 117: 102962.

[2] Ardhuin F, Chapron B, Collard F. Observation of swell dissipation across oceans Geophys Res Lett, 2009, 36: L06607.

[3] Bloemendaal N, Muis S, Haarsma RJ, Verlaan M, Apecechea MI, de Moel H, Ward PJ, Aerts JCJH. Global modeling of tropical cyclone storm surges using high-resolution forecasts Clim Dyn, 2019, 52(7–8): 5031-5044.

[4] Booij N, Ris CR, Holthuijsen LH. A third generation wave model for coastal regions: 1. Model description and validation J Geophys Res, 1999, 104(4): 7649-7666.

[5] Çalısır E, Soran MB, Akpınar A. Quality of the ERA5 and CFSR winds and their contribution to wave modelling performance in a semi-closed sea J Oper Oceanogr, 2021, 16(2): 106-30

[6] Campos RM, Gramcianinov CB, de Camargo R, Dias PLdS. Assessment and calibration of ERA5 severe winds in the atlantic ocean using satellite data Remote Sensing, 2022, 14(19): 4918.

[7] Cavaleri L, Rizzoli PM. Wind wave prediction in shallow water: theory and applications J Geophys Res, 1981, 86: 10961-10973.

[8] Central of Statistics Agency (2023) Sea Transportation Statistics 2022. ISSN 2598–5620.

[9] Duan Y, Liu H, Yu W, Liu L, Yang G, Liu B. The onset of the Indonesian-Australian Summer Monsoon triggered by the first-branch eastward-propagating Madden–Julian Oscillation J Clim, 2019, 32: 5453-5470.

[10] Geospatial Information Agency (2023) Gazeter of the Republic of Indonesia Topographic Elements of Islands Vol. 2 2023. ISSN: 3032–789X.

[11] Gordon AL, Sprintall J, Van Aken HM, Susanto D, Wijels S, Molcard R, Ffield A, Pranowo W, Wirasantosa S. The Indonesian throughflow during 2004–2006 as observed by the INSTANT Program Dyn Atmos Oceans, 2010, 50: 115-128.

[12] Hersbach H, Bell B, Berrisford P, Hirahara S, Horanyi A, Munoz-Sabater J, Nicolas J, Peubey C, Radu R, Schepers D, Simmons A, Soci C, Abdalla S, Abellan X, Balsamo G, Bechtold P, Biavati G, Bidlot J, Bonavita M, Chiara G, Dahlgren P, Dee D, Diamantakis M, Dragani R, Flemming J, Forbes R, Fuentes M, Geer A, Haimberger L, Healy S, Hogan RJ, Holm E, Janiskova M, Keeley S, Laloyaux P, Lopez P, Lupu C, Radnoti G, Rosnay P, Rozum I, Vamborg F, Villaume S, Thepaut J. The ERA5 global reanalysis Q J R Meteorol Soc, 2020, 146: 1999-2049.

[13] Holthuijsen LH Waves in the Ocean and Coastal Waters, 2007 Cambridge Cambridge University Press. 13 978-0-511-27021-5)

[14] Iskandar I, Mardiansyah W, Masumoto Y, Yamagata T. Intraseasonal Kelvin wave along the southern coast of Sumatra and Java J Geophys Res Atmos, 2005, 110: C04013.

[15] Jiang Y, Rong Z, Li P, Qin T, Yu X, Chi Y, Gao Z. Modelling waves over the Changjiang River Estuary using a high-resolution unstructured SWAN model Ocean Model, 2022, 173: 102007.

[16] Komen GJ, Hasselmann S, Hasselmann K. On the existence of a fully developed wind-sea spectrum J Phys Oceanogr, 1984, 14(8): 1271-1285.

[17] Kurniawan R, Habibie M N, Suratno (2011) Monthly variation of ocean waves in Indonesia. Jurnal Meteorologi dan Geofisika, 12(3).

[18] Kurniawan R, Harsa H, Nurrahmat MN, Sasmito A, Florida N, Makmur EES, Swarinoto YS, Habibie MN, Hurapea TF, Hendri, Sudewi RS, Fitria W, Praja AS, Adrianita F (2021) The Impact of Tropical Cyclone Seroja to the rainfall and sea wave height in East Nusa Tenggara. IOP Conf. Ser.: Earth Environ. Sci. 925 012049.

[19] Latos B, Lefort T, Flatau MK, Flatau PJ, Permana DS, Baranowski DB, Paski JAI, Makmur E, Sulystyo E, Peyrille P, Feng Z, Matthews AJ, Schmidt JM. Equatorial waves triggering extreme rainfall and floods in Southwest Sulawesi, Indonesia Years of Maritime Continent, 2021, 149: 1381-1401

[20] Liang B, Gao H, Shao Z. Characteristics of global waves based on the third-generation wave model SWAN Mar Struct, 2019, 64: 35-53.

[21] Lu J, Shi J, Zhang W, Xia J, Wang Q. Numerical simulations on waves in the Northwest Pacific Ocean based on SWAN models J Phys Conf Ser, 2022, 2486: 012034

[22] Miaohua Mao, André J, van der Westhuysen, Meng X, David JS, Chawla A (2016) Modeling wind waves from deep to shallow waters in Lake Michigan using unstructured SWAN Abstract Key Points Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 121(6) 3836–3865. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JC011340.

[23] Miles JW. On the generation of surface waves by shear flows J Fluid Mech, 1957, 3: 185-204.

[24] Mohtadi M, Oppo DW, Steinke S, Stuut JBW, Holz RDP, Hebbeln D, Lückge A. Glacial to Holocene swings of the Australian-Indonesian monsoon Nat Geosci, 2011, 4: 540-544.

[25] Napitupulu G, Nuruddin MF, Fekranie NA, Magdalena I. Analysis of wind generated wave characteristics by SWAN model in Balikpapan Bay IOP Conf Ser Earth Environ Sci, 2021, 930: 012067

[26] Ningsih NS, Azhari A, Al-Khan TM. Wave climate characteristics and effects of tropical cyclones on high wave occurences in Indonesian waters: Strengthening sea transportation safety management Ocean Coast Manag, 2023, 243: 106738.

[27] Pallares E, Lopez J, Espino M, Sanchez-Arcilla A. Comparison between nested grids and unstructured grids for a high resolution wave forecasting system in the western Mediterranean sea J Operat Oceanogr, 2016, 10(1): 45-48.

[28] Phillips OM. On the generation of waves by turbulent wind J Fluid Mech, 1957, 2: 417-445.

[29] Rachmayani R, Ningsih NS, Ardiansyah I. The effect of reclamation on the significant wave height changes in Jakarta Bay during Hagibis and Mitag typhoons J Ocean Eng Marine Energy, 2022, 9: 165-179.

[30] Ramdhani A (2015) The Effect of Tropical Cyclones and Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) on HighWave Events Using the Wavewatch III Model in Inner Seas of Indonesian. Ph.D. Thesis, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Bandung, Indonesia, 2015.

[31] Ramsay H (2017) The Global Climatology of Tropical Cyclones. Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Natural Hazard Science. Retrieved 19 May. 2023.

[32] Roberts KJ, Pringle WJ, Westerink JJ. OceanMesh2D 1.0: MATLAB-based software for two-dimensional unstructured mesh generation in coastal ocean modeling Geosci Model Dev, 2019, 12: 1847-1868.

[33] Saksono H. Blue enonomy: a solution for development islands area with case study of Anambas Island Urnal Bina Praja, 2013, 5(1): 1-12.

[34] Semedo A, Suselj K, Rutgersson A, Sterl A. A global view on the wind sea and swell climate and variability from ERA-40 J Clim, 2011, 24(5): 1461-1479.

[35] Sofiati I, Putranto MF. The analysis of tropical cyclones that occurred in the southern sea of Java during the period 2004–2019 and their effects on sea-atmospheric conditions IOP Conf Ser Earth Environ Sci, 2020, 572: 012032.

[36] Soran MB, Amarouche K, Akpınar A. Spatial calibration of WAVEWATCH III model against satellite observations using different input and dissipation parameterizations in the Black Sea Ocean Eng, 2022, 257. 111627

[37] Subasita N Influence of tropical cyclones on the statistical properties of extreme waves in the tropical Indian Ocean, 2018 Thesis Program Magister Utrecht University

[38] Syamsudin F, Kaneko A. Ocean variability along the southern coast of Java and Lesser Sunda Islands J Oceanogr, 2013, 69: 557-570.

[39] Wheeler MC, McBride JL (2005) Australian-Indonesian monsoon. In Intraseasonal Variability in the Atmosphere-Ocean Climate System; Mason, J., Ed.; Springer: Berlin, Germany, pp. 125–173.

[40] Windupranata W, Nusantara CADS, Wijaya DD, Prijatna P. Impact analysis of Tropical Cyclone Cempaka-Dahlia on wave heights in Indonesian waters from numerical model and altimetry satellite KnE Eng, 2019, 4: 203-214

[41] Wurjanto A, Mukhti JA. Sensitivity analysis for wind-driven significantwave height model in SWAN: A Sunda Strait case IOP Conf Ser Earth Environ Sci, 2021, 729: 012035.

[42] Zijlema M. Computation ofwind-wave spectra in coastal waters with SWAN on unstructured grids Coast Eng, 2010, 57: 267-277.

RIGHTS & PERMISSIONS

The Author(s)