The prediction of different phenotypes of preeclampsia in the first trimester of pregnancy (two-center retrospective study)

Abstract

AIM: The aim of this study was to determine the effectiveness of predicting the development of placental or maternal preeclampsia (PE) by clinical and anamnestic risk factors and results of the combined screening in first trimester of pregnancy.

MATERIALS AND METHODS: This two-center retrospective case-control study included the data analysis of somatic status, the obstetric and gynecologic anamnesis, and the results of the combined screening of 373 women in the first trimester of pregnancy. The control group consisted of 200 women with physiological course of pregnancy and labor. The main group comprised 173 patients whose pregnancy was complicated by early-onset (n = 44, 25%) or severe late-onset (n = 129, 75%) PE. We analyzed more than 100 clinical and anamnestic risk factors for PE implementation and evaluated the risk of developing PE at 11.0-13.6 weeks of gestation using the Fetal Medicine Foundation calculator.

RESULTS: Maternal risk factors for PE development are identical for clinical phenotypes, except for the family anamnesis of arterial vascular accidents in first-line relatives under 45 years of age, which are significantly interfaced to risk of placental PE development (OR 6.38, 95% CI 2.00–2.28; p = 0.0017). A comprehensive assessment of clinical and anamnestic data at 11.0-13.6 weeks of gestation allows for predicting the implementation of maternal severe PE in 36.7% of cases and placental PE in 29.6% of cases with an identical false positive rate of 10.5%. Carrying out the combined screening in the first trimester allows for determining the risk of PE development up to 37 weeks without differentiation by clinical phenotypes, with a test sensitivity of 53.9% at a false positive rate of 34.7%.

CONCLUSIONS: The prediction of placental or maternal PE development in the first trimester of pregnancy is possible only by maternal, clinical and anamnestic risk factors with a low predictive value of the test. Carrying out the combined screening with the inclusion of maternal risk factors, uterine artery pulsation index and pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A level increases the predictive value of the test for PE development up to 37 weeks from 37.6% to 53.6% at a high rate of false positive results. Validation of medical technologies for predicting clinical PE phenotypes in the population of women, taking into account a territorial origin and risk factors, will allow for defining the shortcomings of the model and improving its predictive value.

Keywords

preeclampsia / risk factors / combined screening / forecasting

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