The casual nature of biological influence at mathematical modeling of consequences of emergency situations

Abstract

Mathematical modeling for a number of reasons is one of the effective tools when forecasting consequences of emergency situations of biological character is to be done. The complex of indicators of scales, dangers and durations of consequences of infectious diseases agents influence is a subject for an assessment. A set of basic data for forecasting is defined by a set of the used mathematical models, the majority of which are determined now. In addition, by means of knowledge obtained from literature and available practical data, the majority of the phenomena and processes realized at the same time revealed to be stochastic by the nature itself. This fact has been of great interest for several decades. Suffice to say that basic characteristics of the situations bound to formation of a biological aerosol (concentration, integrated impurity concentration) by numerous experimental data considered to be random variables having their own laws of distribution (one often means lognormal form). In this case, it is rather obvious that the indicators counted on their basis are random as well. Therefore, the corresponding mathematical apparatus is necessary for their description. As the corresponding characteristics can be used by choice: the laws of distribution of the corresponding random variables, mathematical expectation of the prognosticated indicators or their guaranteed values with the required level of significance. It is necessary to notice that in this direction not only efforts on the theoretical direction are required (there are certain difficulties according to many researchers), but also a slightly different approach to receiving, processing and submission of initial information for carrying out calculations. First of all it refers to statistical data on incidence. Thus, for example, incubation time for various diseases has to be presented not by an interval assessment, but the relevant law of distribution with reasonable parameters. Such information is required also on other aspects of the considered problem.

Keywords

biological emergency situation / biological aerosol / basic data / infection scales / danger of infection / infection duration / mathematical model / random variable

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