Methodology of simulation in ecological and epidemiological investigation of morbidity

Abstract

Dynamic epidemic models for evaluation of incidence and prevalence of infectious diseases were worked out. The models took into account epidemiologic characteristic of two population groups, namely the residential population (the primary nidus of infection) and the work collective (the secondary nidus of infection).The epidemic process was described via ordinary differential equations. Analytical solutions of the equations were obtained. General approaches to simulation of epidemic processes were proposed.

Keywords

epidemiology / epidemiologic prevalence / simulation

References

[1] Бейли Н. Математика в биологии и медицине: Пер. с англ. М.: Мир, 1976. 326 с.

[2] Лопатииков Л.И. Экономико-математический словарь. Словарь современной экономической науки. М.: Дело, 2003. 520 с.

[3] Максимов А.Г., Максимова Т.Г., Максимов ПК. Доказательная медицина и общественное здоровье. СПб.: Изд-во СПбГУЭФ, 2001. 159 с.

[4] Максимов Г.К., Никитин А.Ф., Манойлова Л.М., Максимов А.Г. К методологии изучения паразитарной заболеваемости популяций // Материалы V Всерос. научи, конф. «Актуальные вопросы медицинской паразитологии». СПб., 1998. С. 177-178.

[5] Мошковский Ш.Д. Основные закономерности эпидемиологии малярии. М., 1950. С. 123-127; 214216; 220-221; 255-258.

[6] Hay S.I., Smith D.L., Snow R.W. Measuring malaria endemicity from intense to interrupted transmission // Lancet Infect. Dis. 2008. Vol. 8. №. 6. P. 369-378.

[7] McKenzie EE., Wong R.C., Bossert W.H. Discrete-Event Simulation Models of Plasmodium falciparum Malaria// Simulation. 1998. Vol. 71. № 4. P. 250-261.

RIGHTS & PERMISSIONS

Lobzin Y.V., \Maximov G.K., \Uiba V.V., Maximov A.G.