ANALYSIS OF FACTORS ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCIDENCE OF TUBERCULOSIS IN THE RESIDENT POPULATION OF MOSCOW IN 2010-2014

Abstract

In the work there is described the methodology and results of the analysis of epidemiological data on the prevalence rate of tuberculosis in Moscow in 2010-2014. The aim of the study was the search for socio-economic and demographic factors affecting on the morbidity rate in city residents. To solve this problem, there was evaluated the initial and standardized incidence rate of tuberculosis in 107 districts of the city. By the method of step-by-step regression, the incidence rates were compared with the socio-economic characteristics of the districts. The results of the treatment showed about 40% of the dispersion of incidence between regions to be due to a variation of two characteristics: the proportion of families receiving subsidies for housing and communal services and the proportion of men over 80 years old. The obtained estimate of the degree of socio-economic determination of the prevalence of tuberculosis is close to the estimates value obtained in similar studies in other countries. The results of the study confirm the hypothesis an important mechanism for the development of tuberculosis in Moscow to be the activation of a latent infection as a result of a weakening of immune protection under the influence of unfavorable socio-economic conditions. Nо relationship between the prevalence rate in permanent residents and migrants registered in the district was revealed.

Keywords

tuberculosis / epidemiology / socio-economic factors / stepwise multiple linear regression analysis / GIS

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