Adequacy of a mathematical model for the prediction of true infections in the south of the Tyumen Region

Leonid Borisovich Kozlov; T N Tsokova; V V Mefod'ev; D G Gubin; Yu P Solodovnikov; L B Kozlov; T N Tsokova; V V Mefodyev; D G Gubin; Yu P Solodovnikov

doi:10.17816/EID40490

Epidemiology and Infectious Diseases ›› 2010, Vol. 15 ›› Issue (2) : 42 -45. DOI: 10.17816/EID40490

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Adequacy of a mathematical model for the prediction of true infections in the south of the Tyumen Region

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Abstract

The adequacy of a mathematical model for the prediction of water-borne enteric infections and tick-borne encephalitis, which were true for the Tyumen Region, was studied. The expected morbidity from water-borne infections was calculated using a simple time series model and that from tick-borne encephalitis was estimated using a time series model with two seasonal constituents. The developed models provide a rather accurate coincidence of the expected and actual morbidity rates and may be used to predict morbidity in the next year (from 53.8 to 100% for water-borne enteric infections and from 80.7 to 93.9% for tick-borne encephalitis).

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infectious morbidity / prediction / Tyumen Region

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Leonid Borisovich Kozlov, T N Tsokova, V V Mefod'ev, D G Gubin, Yu P Solodovnikov, L B Kozlov, T N Tsokova, V V Mefodyev, D G Gubin, Yu P Solodovnikov. Adequacy of a mathematical model for the prediction of true infections in the south of the Tyumen Region. Epidemiology and Infectious Diseases, 2010, 15(2): 42-45 DOI:10.17816/EID40490

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