Predictive model of COVID-19 outcomes in patients with advanced HIV infection

Abstract

BACKGROUND: No studies have examined the course and outcomes of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in patients with advanced HIV infection, which prompted this analysis.

AIM: To identify predictors of the adverse outcomes of COVID-19 in patients with HIV at the stage of secondary diseases to develop a predictive model of outcomes. This will help simplify the decision-making on the management of patients with COVID-19 and HIV infection at advanced stages.

MATERIALS AND METHODS: This single-center study included 300 patients aged >18 years with HIV infection at advanced disease stage and moderate-to-severe COVID-19 requiring in-patient treatment.

RESULTS: The mortality rate was 27.3% (95% CI, 22.7%–32.4%). Factors reflecting respiratory failure, immunodeficiency, decreased levels of protein and albumin, and increased levels of urea became unfavorable. A predictive model of adverse outcomes of COVID-19 in patients with advanced HIV infection has been obtained.

CONCLUSIONS: The proposed predictive model can help a practical healthcare doctor make a quick, informed decision on hospitalization of a patient in the intensive care unit and active therapeutic actions.

Keywords

HIV / COVID-19 / SARS-CoV-2 / immunodeficiency / secondary diseases / multivariate predictive model

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