Prediction of risk of arterial hypertension among female adolescents born preterm

Abstract

Aim. Development of an algorithm for predicting the risk of arterial hypertension among female adolescents in Bashkortostan Republic who were born preterm.

Methods. The analysis of risk factors of cardiovascular diseases was performed among 95 female adolescents with arterial hypertension and 120 female adolescents with normal blood pressure aged 16 years who were born preterm. Blood pressure was measured depending on the percentile distribution of height according to Russian guidelines on prevention of cardiovascular diseases among children and adolescents.

Results. Based on Wald's method, predictive algorithm of risk of arterial hypertension and computer soft on its bases were developed for female adolescents of Bashkortostan Republic born preterm. Prognostic indicators, which demonstrated diagnostic index ≥2,0 and informativeness coefficient ≥0,25 were selected. If the total score of diagnostic indices is +13 points or more, then the conclusion should be made that there is 95% probability of arterial hypertension development. Total score of +8 to +12 is evident for 75% probability of arterial hypertension development. The developed soft makes it possible for female adolescents born preterm to pass comprehensive test and to get a conclusion about the probability of arterial hypertension development and scientifically based personalized recommendations for its prevention.

Conclusion. The developed prognostic algorithm will promote early diagnosis of arterial hypertension among female adolescents in Bashkortostan Republic who were born preterm; it allows defining adolescent groups at risk of this pathology aimed at early preventive measures.

Keywords

prematurity / female adolescents / arterial hypertension / prediction

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RIGHTS & PERMISSIONS

Abrarov R.A.