Changes in prevalence of diabetes mellitus in the Republic of Azerbaijan in 1994-2012 and prospects for 2030

Abstract

Aim. To study the changes in prevalence of diabetes mellitus in the Republic of Azerbaijan in 1994-2012 and to predict the changes by 2030. Methods. The data of the number of patients with diabetes mellitus in the Republic of Azerbaijan were gained by analyzing official statistics of Ministry of Healthcare of the Azerbaijan Republic. The population of Azerbaijan in 1994-2012 was also analyzed. Microsoft Excel software package was used for prognosis calculation and graphical representation. Results. In 1994 40 438 patients with diabetes mellitus were registered in the Republic of Azerbaijan, in 2003 - 49 083 pa-tients, and in 2012 the number of patients with diabetes mellitus has reached 151 667 which was 375.06% compared to 1994 and 309.00% compared to 2003. Mid-annual change of the country’s population was calculated, with the gained data used for population prediction for 2030. According to the calculations, the number of officially registered patients with diabetes mellitus should reach 3.73% of the Azerbaijan Republic population by 2030. Conclusion. Statistical data show considerable growth in diabetes mellitus prevalence in the Republic of Azerbaijan. The prediction based on the last 9 years data allows to predict the increase of the number of officially registered patients with diabetes mellitus up to 380 178 patients by 2030, which will make 3.73% of the country’s population.

Keywords

population and epidemiological research / diabetes mellitus / prevalence / forecast

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Alieva T.T.