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Frontiers of Engineering Management

Front. Eng    2019, Vol. 6 Issue (4) : 477-484     https://doi.org/10.1007/s42524-019-0064-x
RESEARCH ARTICLE
Analysis and countermeasures of natural gas development in China
Wenzhi ZHAO(), Ailin JIA, Guosheng ZHANG
Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration & Development (RIPED), Beijing 100083, China
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Abstract

Natural gas has become a transitional bridge from fossil to green and clean energy worldwide. The importance of natural gas utilization in energy structure optimization and green development is no exception for China. However, the supply of China’s natural gas limits the country’s demand with three factors. (1) China’s natural gas resource is relatively rich, but its quality is poor with deep burial depth. Therefore, the annual plateau yield of natural gas cannot be high, with an estimated value of approximately 260–270 ×109 m3. (2) The demand for natural gas in China’s economic development is growing rapidly. The peak demand is estimated to be approximately 550–650 ×109 m3 per year or even higher. The import volume of natural gas will soon exceed that of domestic self-produced gas. (3) Natural gas is a necessity closely related to livelihood. Particularly, a shortage in natural gas supply affects social stability. Therefore, its external dependency should be under 50% and not exceed 60%. In this study, the future situation of China’s natural gas is forecasted, and relevant countermeasures and suggestions are proposed in accordance with research on China’s natural gas resource potential, production trend, supply-demand link, and gas supply safety factors.

Keywords natural gas      yield      consumption      external dependency      security situation     
Corresponding Author(s): Wenzhi ZHAO   
Just Accepted Date: 10 October 2019   Online First Date: 26 November 2019    Issue Date: 05 December 2019
 Cite this article:   
Wenzhi ZHAO,Ailin JIA,Guosheng ZHANG. Analysis and countermeasures of natural gas development in China[J]. Front. Eng, 2019, 6(4): 477-484.
 URL:  
http://journal.hep.com.cn/fem/EN/10.1007/s42524-019-0064-x
http://journal.hep.com.cn/fem/EN/Y2019/V6/I4/477
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Fig.1  Development situation of natural gas production in China (data obtained from the National Bureau of Statistics (2018)).
Fig.2  Composition change of natural gas production in China (data obtained from the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) (2018)).
Fig.3  Yearly natural gas consumption in China (data obtained from the NDRC (2018)).
Fig.4  The external dependency of China’s natural gas (data obtained from NDRC (2018)).
Fig.5  Annual growth trend of proven natural gas reserves in China (The forecasted line is obtained via the Weng Cycle Model; Actual data source: NDRC).
Fig.6  Production forecast of conventional and unconventional gases in China.
Fig.7  Forecast of natural gas yield and consumption in China.
2015 2016 2020 2025 2030
Industrial fuel 671 734 1150 1500 1800
Urban gas 411 434 750 1100 1350
Power generation 353 414 1100 1650 2000
Transportation 238 255 500 750 950
Tab.1  Forecast of natural gas consumption in various sectors in China (unit: 100 ×106 m3).
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