Malignancy Spectrum >

2024 , Vol. 1 >Issue 2: 123 - 135

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/msp2.25

Competing-risks model for predicting the prognosis of patients with regressive melanoma based on the SEER database

  • Chaodi Huang 1 ,
  • Liying Huang 2 ,
  • Jianguo Huang 3 ,
  • Xinkai Zheng 1 ,
  • Congjun Jiang 1,4 ,
  • Kong Ching Tom 5 ,
  • U. Tim Wu 6 ,
  • WenHsien Ethan Huang 7 ,
  • Yunfei Gao 8,9 ,
  • Fangmin Situ 1 ,
  • Hai Yu , 1 ,
  • Liehua Deng , 1,10 ,
  • Jun Lyu , 2,11
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  • 1. Department of Dermatology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Jinan University and Jinan University Institute of Dermatology, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China
  • 2. Department of Clinical Research, The First Affiliated Hospital of Jinan University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China
  • 3. Department of Dermatology, Huadu District People’s Hospital of Guangzhou, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China
  • 4. Department of Dermatology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Bengbu Medical College, Bengbu, Anhui, China
  • 5. Primax Biotech Company, Hong Kong, China
  • 6. Meng Yi Centre Limited, Macau, China
  • 7. GeneHope Clinic, Taipei, Taiwan, China
  • 8. Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Tumor Interventional Diagnosis and Treatment, Zhuhai Institute of Translational Medicine, Zhuhai People’s Hospital Affiliated with Jinan University, Zhuhai, Guangdong, China
  • 9. The Biomedical Translational Research Institute, Faculty of Medical Science, Jinan University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China
  • 10. Department of Dermatology, The Fifth Affiliated Hospital of Jinan University, Heyuan, Guangdong, China
  • 11. Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Traditional Chinese Medicine Informatization, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China
1027078346@qq.com
Liehuadeng@126.com
lyujun2020@jnu.edu.cn

Received date: 13 Aug 2023

Accepted date: 05 Jan 2024

Published date: 09 Jul 2024

Copyright

2024 2024 The Authors. Malignancy Spectrum published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd on behalf of Higher Education Press.
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Abstract

Background: The relationship between the regression and prognosis of melanoma has been debated for years. When competing-risk events are present, using traditional survival analysis methods may induce bias in the identified prognostic factors that affect patients with regressive melanoma.

Methods: Data on patients diagnosed with regressive melanoma were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database during 2000–2019. Cumulative incidence function and Gray’s test were used for the univariate analysis, and the Cox proportional-hazards model and the Fine–Gray model were used for the multivariate analysis.

Results: A total of 1442 eligible patients were diagnosed with regressive melanoma, including 529 patients who died: 109 from regressive melanoma and 420 from other causes. The multivariate analysis using the Fine–Gray model revealed that SEER stage, surgery status, and marital status were important factors that affected the prognosis of regressive melanoma. Due to the existence of competing-risk events, the Cox model may have induced biases in estimating the effect values, and the competing-risks model was more advantageous in the analysis of multipleendpoint clinical survival data.

Conclusion: The findings of this study may help clinicians to better understand regressive melanoma and provide reference data for clinical decisions.

Key words： competing-risks model; prognosis; regressive melanoma; SEER; Cox model

Cite this article

Chaodi Huang , Liying Huang , Jianguo Huang , Xinkai Zheng , Congjun Jiang , Kong Ching Tom , U. Tim Wu , WenHsien Ethan Huang , Yunfei Gao , Fangmin Situ , Hai Yu , Liehua Deng , Jun Lyu . Competing-risks model for predicting the prognosis of patients with regressive melanoma based on the SEER database[J]. Malignancy Spectrum, 2024 , 1(2) : 123 -135 . DOI: 10.1002/msp2.25

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