The effects of climate change on Pinus tabulaeformis radial growth in the Xiaowutai Mountains, northern China

Abstract

Clarifying the climate change effects on the radial growth of trees has implications for sustainable forest management, especially under global warming. To investigate tree growth responses to regional climate change of Xiaowutai Mountain, four Chinese pine (Pinus tabulaeformis) ring-width index chronologies were established at different elevations (1290–1600 m). Species growth trends were estimated using climate change projections derived from global climate models. The results show: (1) the four ring-width chronologies exhibited strong statistical characteristics, making them suitable for dendroclimatology studies. Radial growth-climate relationships were highly consistent, showing a negative correlation with previous September temperatures and current May–June temperatures, as well as a positively correlated with precipitation and Palmer Drought Severity Index during the corresponding period; and (2) climate change scenarios revealed that temperature will gradually increase on the Xiaowutai Mountain, and only a slight variation in precipitation is expected. Chinese pine radial growth may show a decline under future climate change.

References

[1] Bai XH, Zhang J, Cao K, Wang YQ, Sadia S, Cao G. Relationship between forest communities and the environment in the Xiaowutai Mountain National Nature Reserve, Hebei. Acta Ecol Sin, 2017, 37(11): 3683-3696. in Chinese

[2] Bao G, Liu Y, Liu N, Wang HT. Radial growth response of Pinus tabulaeformisto temperature during the growth season in southeastern Gansu, China. Geogr Ann Ser A Phys Geogr, 2020, 102(3): 185-195.

[3] Cao HH, Zhao XE, Chen F, Wang SJ, Liu XH. Reconstructing January-June precipitation in Southeastern Shanxi over the past 296 years inferred from tree-ring records of Pinus tabuliformis. Ying Yong Sheng Tai Xue Bao, 2021, 32(10): 3618-3626. in Chinese

[4] Chen ZJ, Zhang XL, He XY, Davi NK, Li LL, Bai XP. Response of radial growth to warming and CO₂ enrichment in southern Northeast China: a case of Pinus tabulaeformis. Clim Change, 2015, 130(4): 559-571.

[5] Cook ER (1985) A time series approach to tree-ring standardization. PhD Thesis, University of Arizona

[6] Coomes DA, Burslem DFRP, Simonson WD Forests and global change, 2014 Cambridge Cambridge University Press,

[7] D’Arrigo RD, Kaufmann RK, Davi N, Jacoby GC, Laskowski C, Myneni RB, Cherubini P. Thresholds for warming-induced growth decline at elevational tree line in the Yukon Territory, Canada. Glob Biogeochem Cycles, 2004, 18(3): GB3021.

[8] Feng J, Hua YW, Zhang ZC, Liu K, Liu B, Zhang F. Response of the relationship between Pinus tabuliformis Carr. radial growth and climatic factors to abrupt changes in temperature in Qinling Zhen’an. Plant Sci J, 2021, 39(3): 268-277 in Chinese

[9] Fritts HC Tree rings and climate, 1976 London Academic Press

[10] Gao LL, Gou XH, Deng Y, Yang MX, Huo YX, Chen QY. The advance of dendroclimatology in arid area of Northwest China. Mar Geol Quat Geol, 2013, 33(4): 25-35. in Chinese

[11] González-Muñoz N, Linares JC, Castro-Díez P, Sass-Klaassen U. Predicting climate change impacts on native and invasive tree species using radial growth and twenty-first century climate scenarios. Eur J for Res, 2014, 133(6): 1073-1086.

[12] He MH, Yang B, Bräuning A, Rossi S, Ljungqvist FC, Shishov V, Grießinger J, Wang JL, Liu JJ, Qin C. Recent advances in dendroclimatology in China. Earth Sci Rev, 2019, 194: 521-535.

[13] Holmes RL. Computer-assisted quality control in tree-ring dating and measurement. Tree Ring Bull, 1983, 43: 69-78.

[14] Hughes MK. Dendrochronology in climatology—the state of the art. Dendrochronologia, 2002, 20(1–2): 95-116.

[15] IPCC (2022) Climate Change 2022: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of working group II to the sixth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press. Cambridge

[16] Jiang Y, Huang QR, Han JS, Huang XX, Liu QR. Relationship between species distribution and habitat effective temperature in subalpine meadow of Mt. Xiaowutai. Ying Yong Sheng Tai Xue Bao, 2005, 16(7): 1213-1217 in Chinese

[17] Li X, Peng JF, Li JR, Yang L, Cui JY, Peng M, Li CX. Climate-growth response of Pinus tabulaeformis in the south slope of Longchiman, Mt. Funiu, Central China. Acta Ecol Sin, 2022, 42(7): 2865-2877. in Chinese

[18] Li YH, Qi GZ, Feng RR, Liu K. Responses of radial growth of Pinus tabuliformis to climate change at the northern slopes of Qinling Mountains, China. Ying Yong Sheng Tai Xue Bao, 2022, 33(8): 2043-2050. in Chinese

[19] Li ZS, Liu GH, Fu BJ, Zhang QB, Hu CJ, Luo SZ. Influence of different detrending methods on climate signal in tree-ring chronologies in Wolong National Natural Reserve, western Sichuan, China. Chin J Plant Ecol, 2011, 35(7): 707-721. in Chinese

[20] Lindeman RH, Merenda PF, Gold RZ Introduction to bivariate and multivariate analysis, 1980 Glenview Scott, Foresman

[21] Liu H, Zhang L, Ma Q, Zhao W, Chen YP. From tree to forest: multiple carbon sink constraints. Innovation, 2023, 4(4): 100463.

[22] Liu Y, Cai QF, Shi JF, Hughes MK, Kutzbach JE, Liu ZY, Ni FB, An ZS. Seasonal precipitation in the south-central Helan Mountain region, China, reconstructed from tree-ring width for the past 224 years. Can J for Res, 2005, 35(10): 2403-2412.

[23] Liu Y, Lei Y, Sun B, Song HM, Li Q. Annual precipitation variability inferred from tree-ring width chronologies in the Changling-Shoulu region, China, during AD 1853–2007. Dendrochronologia, 2013, 31(4): 290-296.

[24] Liu Y, Song HM, Sun CF, Song Y, Cai QF, Liu RS, Lei Y, Li Q. The 600-mm precipitation isoline distinguishes tree-ring-width responses to climate in China. Natl Sci Rev, 2019, 6(2): 359-368.

[25] Liu Y, Wang CY, Hao WJ, Song HM, Cai QF, Tian H, Sun B, Linderholm HW. Tree-ring-based annual precipitation reconstruction in Kalaqin, Inner Mongolia for the last 238 years. Chin Sci Bull, 2011, 56(28–29): 2995-3002.

[26] Liu ZL, Fang JY, Zheng CY. Relationship between the vegetation type and topography in Mt. Xiaowutai, Hebei Province: a remote sensing analysis. Biodivers Sci, 2004, 12(1): 146-154.

[27] Lü ZG, Li WB, Huang XR, Zhang ZD. Predicting suitable distribution area of three dominant tree species under climate change scenarios in Hebei province. Sci Silvae Sin, 2019, 55(3): 13-21.

[28] New M, Hulme M. Representing uncertainty in climate change scenarios: a Monte-Carlo approach. Integr Assess, 2000, 1(3): 203-213.

[29] Ning P, Zhang M, Bai TY, Zhang B, Yang L, Dang SN, Yang XH, Gao RM. Dendroclimatic response of Pinus tabuliformis Carr. along an altitudinal gradient in the warm temperate region of China. Front Plant Sci, 2023, 14: 1147229.

[30] Peng JJ, He XY, Chen ZJ, Cui MX, Zhang XL, Zhou CH. Responses of Pinus tabulaeformis forest ecosystem in North China to climate change and elevated CO₂: a simulation based on BIOME-BGC model and tree-ring data. Chin J Appl Ecol, 2012, 23(7): 1733-1742. in Chinese

[31] Qin L, Yuan YJ, Yu SL, Fan ZA, Shang HM, Chen F, Zhang TW, Zhang RB. Tree-ring-based precipitation variability over the past 373 years in the Sayram Lake Basin, Tianshan Mountians. Acta Ecol Sin, 2017, 37(4): 1084-1092. in Chinese

[32] Ren QW, Xin FN, Li LD, You HZ, Bi J. Stem sap flow and water consumption of Larix principis-rupprechtii during growth season in northern mountain areas of Hebei province. J Central South Univ for Technol, 2018, 38(5): 92-97. in Chinese

[33] Schweingruber FH Tree rings: basics and applications of dendrochronology, 2012 Berlin Springer Science & Business Media

[34] Shi JF, Li JB, Cook ER, Zhang XY, Lu HY. Growth response of Pinus tabulaeformis to climate along an elevation gradient in the eastern Qinling Mountains, Central China. Clim Res, 2012, 53(2): 157-167.

[35] Shi JF, Shi SY, Ma XQ, Zhao YS, Zhang WJ, Wang BW. Progress of tree-ring studies in climate and environment in Southeast China and North China. Quat Sci, 2018, 38(6): 1471-1486. in Chinese

[36] Shi LT, Shi CQ, Du CX, Yang JY. Distribution characteristics and water conservation capacity of litter in main forests of Xiaowutai Mountain. J Soil Water Conserv, 2022, 36(5): 195-203.

[37] Sun CF, Liu Y, Song HM, Mei RC, Payomrat P, Wang L, Liu RS. Tree-ring-based precipitation reconstruction in the source region of Weihe River, Northwest China since AD 1810. Int J Climatol, 2018, 38(8): 3421-3431.

[38] Tang XG, Yuan YD, Zhang JC. Simulation of potential spatial-temporal population dynamics of Pinus tabuliformis under climate change. J North East for Univ, 2021, 49(9): 1-7. in Chinese

[39] Wang H, Shao XM, Jiang Y, Fang XQ, Wu SH. The impacts of climate change on the radial growth of Pinus koraiensis along elevations of Changbai Mountain in northeastern China. Forest Ecol Manag, 2013, 289: 333-340.

[40] Wei BY, Li YN, Yan XD, Fang XQ, Zhu HF, Li JL. Estimation of February-may precipitations from tree-ring in Xiaowutai mountain region from 1895 onwards. J Beijing Norm Univ Nat Sci, 2008, 44(1): 96-102. in Chinese

[41] Wigley TML, Briffa KR, Jones PD. On the average value of correlated time series, with applications in dendroclimatology and hydrometeorology. J Clim Appl Meteorol, 1984, 23(2): 201-213.

[42] Xie M, Cai QF, Liu Y, Zhang HY, Li T, Ye YD. Growth characteristics of Pinus tabuliformis Carr. and its relationship with climate change in the south of Lüliang Mountains in the past century. J Earth Environ, 2023, 14(1): 62-73. in Chinese

[43] Xue RH, Jiao L, Qi CL, Chen K, Liu XP, Du DS, Wu X. Growth and response patterns of Picea crassifolia and Pinus tabuliformis to climate factors in the Qilian Mountains, Northwest China. Dendrochronologia, 2022, 71: 125905.

[44] Yan DH, Yin J, Yang ZY, Xie WH, Liu SH, Weng BS, Wang G, Hao CL. Research on response of the Chinese pine to regional climatic factors and drought events, Xiaowutai Mountain, China. Quat Int, 2013, 283: 125-133.

[45] Yang FP, Hu ZY, Hou L, Cai J, Cui C, Zhang SX. Relationship between net primary productivity of tree layer in Pinus tabulaeformis and Pinus armandi forests and climatic factors at Huoditang forest region in the Qinling Mountains. Acta Ecol Sin, 2014, 34(22): 6489-6500. in Chinese

[46] Yang YH, Shi Y, Sun WJ, Chang JF, Zhu JX, Chen LY, Wang X, Guo YP, Zhang HT, Yu LF, Zhao SQ, Xu K, Zhu JL, Shen HH, Wang YY, Peng YF, Zhao X, Wang XP, Hu HF, Chen SP, Huang M, Wen XF, Wang SP, Zhu B, Niu SL, Tang ZY, Liu LL, Fang JY. Terrestrial carbon sinks in China and around the world and their contribution to carbon neutrality. Sci China Life Sci, 2022, 65(5): 861-895.

[47] Yang YR, Zhang MS, Zhang LN, Lu QQ, Hong YX, Liu XH. Different responses of radial growth of Pinus tabuliformis to climate in the middle and western Qinling Mountains. Acta Ecol Sin, 2022, 42(4): 1474-1486.

[48] Yin H, Wang J, Liu HB, Huang L, Zhu HF. A research on the response of the radial growth of Pinus koraiensis to future climate change in the XiaoXing’AnLing. Acta Ecol Sin, 2011, 31(24): 7343-7350 in Chinese

[49] Yin YH, Ma DY, Wu SH, Pan T. Projections of aridity and its regional variability over China in the mid-21st century. Int J Climatol, 2015, 35(14): 4387-4398.

[50] You HZ, Bi J, Cai L, Wang C. Woodland hydrological effects of different forest types and its ecological function value evaluation of water resources conservation in Xiaowutai Mountain, Hebei. Chin Agric Sci Bull, 2013, 29(13): 60-65. in Chinese

[51] Yu DP, Wang QW, Wang Y, Zhou WM, Ding H, Fang XM, Jiang SW, Dai LM. Climatic effects on radial growth of major tree species on Changbai Mountain. Acta Ecol Sin, 2011, 68(5): 921-933.

[52] Yu PT, Liu HY, Cui HT. Vegetation and its relation with climate conditions near the timberline of Beitai, the Xiaowutai Mts., Northern China. Ying Yong Sheng Tai Xue Bao, 2002, 13(5): 523-528 in Chinese

[53] Zhao Y, Cai LX, Jin YT, Li JX, Cui D, Chen ZJ. Warming-drying climate intensifies the restriction of moisture on radial growth of Pinus tabuli-formis plantation in semi-arid area of Northeast China. Ying Yong Sheng Tai Xue Bao, 2021, 32(10): 3459-3467. in Chinese

[54] Zhao ZF, Guo YL, Zhu FX, Jiang Y. Prediction of the impact of climate change on fast-growing timber trees in China. For Ecol Manag, 2021, 501: 119653.