A 217-year precipitation reconstruction in the Habahe area, Xinjiang, Northeast China

Abstract

Evaluating long-term changes in precipitation resources is important for accurate hydrological evaluation and forecasting, water security and rational allocation of water resources. For this purpose in the Xinjiang Habahe area, tree-ring specimens were collected from Picea obovata, Larix sibirica, and Betula platyphylla to establish a tree-ring width chronology, which was used to analyse a correlation with the average temperature and precipitation per month for 1958–2016. Based on correlation coefficients for monthly temperature and precipitation with the chronology of tree-ring widths, radial tree growth was mainly restricted by precipitation, and tree-ring width chronology was significantly correlated with overall precipitation from the previous July to the next June (r = 0.641, P < 0.01). The above results were used to establish a transformation equation, and the overall precipitation from the previous July to the following June from 1800 to 2016 in Habahe was reconstructed after adjusted degrees of freedom, and obtain an explanatory rate of the variation up to 41.1% (40.0%). In addition to the reliability of the reconstructed values, the stability of the conversion function was determined via the “leave-one-out” method, which is commonly used in research on tree rings, and by cross-checking the conversion function with the reduced error value (RE), product mean test (t), with a sign test (ST). During the last 217 years, there were nine dry periods: 1803–1829, 1861–1865, 1872–1885, 1892–1905, 1916–1923, 1943–1954, 1961–1966, 1973–1981, and 2005–2011; and 12 wet periods: 1830–1834, 1836–1860, 1866–1871, 1886–1891, 1906–1915, 1925–1930, 1934–1942, 1955–1960, 1967–1972, 1982–1996, 2000–2004, and 2012–2016. Comparisons of the reconstructions for neighboring regions and a spatial correlation analysis showed that the reconstructed sequence of the present precipitation data better represented the changes in precipitation in Habahe. Additionally, a power spectrum analysis revealed that precipitation over the past 217 years in Habahe Province exhibited 2–5 years of quasiperiodic variation. A power spectrum analysis and wavelet analysis indicated that El Niño-Southern Oscillation influenced the precipitation cycles. This reconstruction provides more information on high-frequency precipitation, which is an important supplement to the existing tree-ring reconstruction of precipitation in the study area. The reconstruction of regional high-resolution precipitation changes over the last several hundred years provides unique, important data for understanding regional differences in climate at the decadal-centennial scale.

Keywords

Tree ring / Chronology / Climate response / Reconstruction / Comparison

References

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