Climate-change habitat shifts for the vulnerable endemic oak species (Quercus arkansana Sarg.)

Abstract

Quercus arkansana (Arkansas oak) is at risk of becoming endangered, as the total known population size is represented by a few isolated populations. The potential impact of climate change on this species in the near future is high, yet knowledge of its predicted effects is limited. Our study utilized the biomod2 R package to develop habitat suitability ensemble models based on bioclimatic and topographic environmental variables and the known locations of current distribution of Q. arkansana. We predicted suitable habitats across three climate change scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) for 2050, 2070, and 2090. Our findings reveal that the current suitable habitat for Q. arkansana is approximately 127,881 km² across seven states (Texas, Arkansas, Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, Georgia, and Florida); approximately 9.5% is encompassed within state and federally managed protected areas. Our models predict that all current suitable habitats will disappear by 2050 due to climate change, resulting in a northward shift into new regions such as Tennessee and Kentucky. The large extent of suitable habitat outside protected areas suggests that a species-specific action plan incorporating protected areas and other areas may be crucial for its conservation. Moreover, protection of Q. arkansana habitat against climate change may require locally and regionally focused conservation policies, adaptive management strategies, and educational outreach among local people.

Keywords

Biomod2 / Climate change / Conservation / Habitat loss / Habitat shift / Species distribution modeling / Oak species

References

[1]	Adhikari D, Barik SK, Upadhaya K (2012) Habitat distribution modelling for reintroduction of Ilex khasiana Purk., a critically endangered tree species of northeastern India. Ecol Eng 40:37–43. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoleng.2011.12.004
[2]	Adhikari B, Bhandari S, Baral K, Lamichhane S, Subedi SC (2022) Raptors at risk: attributes of mortality within an anthropogenic landscape in the Mid-Hills region of Nepal. Glob Ecol Conserv 38:e02258. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gecco.2022.e02258
[3]	Adhikari B, Subedi SC, Bhandari S, Baral K, Lamichhane S, Maraseni T (2023) Climate-driven decline in the habitat of the endemic spiny babbler (Turdoides nipalensis). Ecosphere 14(6):e4584. https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.4584
[4]	Aiello-Lammens ME, Boria RA, Radosavljevic A, Vilela B, Anderson RP (2015) spThin: a R package for spatial thinning of species occurrence records for use in ecological niche models. Ecography 38:541–545. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.01132
[5]	Alig RJ, Kline JD, Lichtenstein M (2004) Urbanization on the US landscape: looking ahead in the 21st century. Landsc Urban Plan 69(2–3):219–234. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2003.07.004
[6]	Beckman E, Baker B, Lobdell M, Meyer A, Westwood M (2019) Quercus arkansana Sarg. In: Beckman E, Meyer A, Man G, Pivorunas D, Denvir A, Gill D, Shaw K, Westwood M (eds) Conservation Gap Analysis of Native U.S. Oaks (50–55). Lisle, IL: The Morton Arboretum. Retrieved from https://www.mortonarb.org/files/species-profile-quercus-arkansana.pdf.
[7]	Bladon AJ, Donald PF, Collar NJ, Denge J, Dadacha G, Wondafrash M, Green RE (2021) Climatic change and extinction risk of two globally threatened Ethiopian endemic bird species. PLoS ONE 16(5):e0249633
[8]	Bocsi T, Harper RW, DeStefano S, Lass DA (2021) Historical and cultural perspectives of oak trees in the American landscape. Arboric J 43(3):171–179. https://doi.org/10.1080/03071375.2021.1903220
[9]	Bonner FT (1987) Seed biology and technology of Quercus. US Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Southern Forest Experiment Station, USA (Vol 66)
[10]	Boria RA, Olson LE, Goodman SM, Anderson RP (2014) Spatial filtering to reduce sampling bias can improve the performance of ecological niche models. Ecol Model 275:73–77. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2013.12.012
[11]	Coetzee BWT, Robertson MP, Erasmus BFN, Van Rensburg BJ, Thuiller W (2009) Ensemble models predict Important Bird Areas in southern Africa will become less effective for conserving endemic birds under climate change. Global Ecol Biogeogr 18:701–710. https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.12107
[12]	Dormann CF, Elith J, Bacher S, Buchmann C, Carl G, Carré G, Marquéz JRG, Gruber B, Lafourcade B, Leit?o PJ, Münkemüller T (2013) Collinearity: a review of methods to deal with it and a simulation study evaluating their performance. Ecography 36:27–46. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0587.2012.07348.x
[13]	Drummond MA, Loveland TR (2010) Land-use pressure and a transition to forest-cover loss in the eastern United States. Bioscience 60(4):286–298. https://doi.org/10.1525/bio.2010.60.4.7
[14]	Fill JM, Davis CN, Crandall RM (2019) Climate change lengthens southeastern USA lightning-ignited fire seasons. Global Change Biol 25(10):3562–3569. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14727
[15]	Gaisberger H, Legay S, Andre C, Loo J, Azimov R, Aaliev S, Bobokalonov F, Mukhsimov N, Kettle C, Vinceti B (2020) Diversity under threat: connecting genetic diversity and threat mapping to set conservation priorities for Juglans regia L. populations in Central Asia. Front Ecol Evol 8:1–18. https://doi.org/10.3389/fevo.2020.00171
[16]	GBIF.org (2022) GBIF Occurrence Download doi:https://doi.org/10.15468/dl.k6vjrm.
[17]	Gómez-Mendoza L, Arriaga L (2007) Modeling the effect of climate change on the distribution of oak and pine species of Mexico. Conserv Biol 21(6):1545–1555. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1523-1739.2007.00814.x
[18]	Graham CH, Ferrier S, Huettman F, Moritz C, Peterson AT (2004) New developments in museum-based informatics and applications in biodiversity analysis. Trends Ecol Evol 19(9):497–503
[19]	Hao T, Elith J, Lahoz-Monfort JJ, Guillera-Arroita G (2020) Testing whether ensemble modelling is advantageous for maximizing predictive performance of species distribution models. Ecography 43:549–558
[20]	Hawkins BA, Sharrock S, Havens K (2008) Plants and climate change: Which future? Botanic Gardens Conservation International, U.K. Available at https://www.bgci.org/wp/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Plants_and_Climate_Change.pdf (Accessed Sep 2022).
[21]	Homer C, Dewitz J, Yang L, Jin S, Danielson P, Xian G, Megown K (2015) Completion of the 2011 National Land Cover Database for the conterminous United States–representing a decade of land cover change information. Photogramm Eng Rem S 81(5):345–354
[22]	Hunt DM, MacRoberts MH, MacRoberts BR (1995) The status of Quercus arkansana Sarg. (Fagaceae) in Texas. Phytologia 79: 22–24. Retrieved from http://biostor.org/reference/167651.
[23]	Iverson LR, McKenzie D (2013) Tree-species range shifts in a changing climate: detecting, modeling, assisting. Landscape Ecol 28:879–889. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-013-9885-x
[24]	Jerome D, Beckman E, Kenny L, Wenzell K, Kua C, Westwood M (2017a) The red list of US oaks. Moreton Arboretum, Lisle, IL, USA
[25]	Jerome D, Wenzell K, Kenny L (2017b) Quercus arkansana. The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species 2017: e.T30953A88108282. Retrieved from doi:https://doi.org/10.2305/IUCN.UK.2017-2.RLTS.T30953A88108282.en
[26]	Johnson PS, Shifley SR, Rogers R, Dey DC, Kabrick JM (2019) The ecology and silviculture of oaks. CABI, Boston, USA
[27]	Kliejunas JT (2010) Sudden oak death and Phytophthora ramorum: a summary of the literature. Gen Tech Rep PSW-GTR-234. Albany, CA: US Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Research Station. 181: 234
[28]	Kluza DA, Vieglais DA, Andreasen JK, Peterson AT (2007) Sudden oak death: geographic risk estimates and predictions of origins. Plant Pathol 56:580–587. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-3059.2007.01602.x
[29]	Kramer-Schadt S, Niedballa J, Pilgrim JD, Schr?der B, Lindenborn J, Reinfelder V, Stillfried M, Heckmann I, Scharf AK, Augeri DM, Cheyne SM (2013) The importance of correcting for sampling bias in MaxEnt species distribution models. Divers Distrib 19(11):1366–1379. https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.12096
[30]	Kunwar RM, Thapa-Magar KB, Subedi SC, Kutal DH, Baral B, Joshi NR, Adhikari B, Upadhyaya KS, Thapa-Magar S, Ansari AS, Thapa GJ (2023) Distribution of important medicinal plant species in Nepal under past, present, and future climatic conditions. Ecol Indic 146:109879. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2023.109879
[31]	Lawler JJ, Lewis DJ, Nelson E, Plantinga AJ, Polasky S, Withey JC, Helmers DP, Martinuzzi S, Pennington D, Radeloff VC (2014) Projected land-use change impacts on ecosystem services in the United States. P Natl Acad Sci USA 111(20):7492–7497. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1405557111
[32]	L?f M, Castro J, Engman M, Leverkus AB, Madsen P, Reque JA, Villalobos A, Gardiner ES (2019) Tamm review: direct seeding to restore oak (Quercus spp.) forests and woodlands. For Ecol Manag 448:474–489. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2019.06.032
[33]	Marmion M, Parviainen M, Luoto M, Heikkinen RK, Thuiller W (2009) Evaluation of consensus methods in predictive species distribution modelling. Divers Distrib 15:59–69. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1472-4642.2008.00491.x
[34]	Martinuzzi S, Radeloff VC, Joppa LN, Hamilton CM, Helmers DP, Plantinga AJ, Lewis DJ (2015) Scenarios of future land use change around United States’ protected areas. Biol Conserv 184:446–455. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2015.02.015
[35]	McDowell NG, Allen CD, Anderson-Teixeira K, Aukema BH, Bond-Lamberty B, Chini L, Clark JS, Dietze M, Grossiord C, Hanbury-Brown A, Hurtt GC (2020) Pervasive shifts in forest dynamics in a changing world. Science 368:eaaz9463. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaz9463
[36]	NatureServe (2022) NatureServe Conservation Status. NatureServe, Arlington, Virginia, USA
[37]	Ogle J, Witsell T, Gentry T (2020) Trees, shrubs, and woody vines of Arkansas. Ozark Society Foundation, Little Rock, Arkansas, USA
[38]	Palmer EJ (1925) Is Quercus arkansana a hybrid? Journal of the Arnold Arboretum 6:195–200
[39]	Pearman PB, Guisan A, Broennimann O, Randin C (2008) Niche dynamics in space and time. Trends Ecol Evol 23(3):149–158. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2007.11.005
[40]	Potter KM, Crane BS, Hargrove WW (2017) A United States national prioritization framework for tree species vulnerability to climate change. New for 48(2):275–300. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11056-017-9569-5
[41]	Powell EJ, Keim BD (2015) Trends in daily temperature and precipitation extremes for the southeastern United States: 1948–2012. J Clim 28(4):1592–1612. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00410.1
[42]	R Development Core Team (2020) R: a language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria. URL: https://www.R-project.org/
[43]	Sierra-Morales P, Rojas-Soto O, Ríos-Mu?oz CA, Ochoa-Ochoa LM, Flores-Rodríguez P, Almazan-Nú?ez RC (2021) Climate change projections suggest severe decreases in the geographic ranges of bird species restricted to mexican humid mountain forests. Glob Ecol Conserv 30:e01794
[44]	Sousa-Silva R, Alves P, Honrado J, Lomba A (2014) Improving the assessment and reporting on rare and endangered species through species distribution models. Glob Ecol Conserv 2:226–237. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gecco.2014.09.011
[45]	Subedi SC, Bhattarai KR, Chaudhary RP (2015) Distribution pattern of vascular plant species of mountains in Nepal and their fate against global warming. J Mt Sci-ENGL 12:1345–1354. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11769-015-3495-9
[46]	Subedi SC, Walls SC, Barichivich WJ, Boyles R, Ross MS, Hogan JA, Tupy JA (2022) Future changes in habitat availability for two specialist snake species in the imperiled rocklands of South Florida, USA. Conserv Sci Pract 4:e12802. https://doi.org/10.1111/csp2.12802
[47]	Subedi SC, Ruston B, Hogan JA, Coggeshall MV (2023) Defining the extent of suitable habitat for the endangered Maple-Leaf oak (Quercus acerifolia). Frontiers of Biogeography 15(3):e58763. https://doi.org/10.21425/F5FBG58763
[48]	Syfert MM, Joppa L, Smith MJ, Coomes DA, Bachman SP, Brummitt NA (2014) Using species distribution models to inform IUCN Red List assessments. Biol Conserv 177:174–184. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2014.06.012
[49]	Thuiller W, Lafourcade B, Engler R, Araújo MB (2009) BIOMOD – a platform for ensemble forecasting of species distributions. Ecography 32:369–373. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0587.2008.05742.x
[50]	Thuiller W, Georges D, Engler R, Breiner F (2020) Biomod2: ensemble platform for species distribution modeling. R package version 3.4.6. https://cran.r-project.org/web/ packages/biomod2/ index.html
[51]	U.S. Census Bureau (2020) Change in Resident Population of the 50 States, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico: 1910 to 2020. Retrieved from https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/dec/popchange-data-text.html
[52]	USGS (2022) U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Gap Analysis Project (GAP), Protected Areas Database of the United States (PAD-US) 3.0: U.S. Geological Survey data release, doi:https://doi.org/10.5066/P9Q9LQ4B
[53]	Vincent H, Amri A, Castan ?eda-A ?lvarez NP, Dempewolf H, Dulloo E, Guarino L, Hole D, Mba C, Toledo A, Maxted N (2019) Modeling of crop wild relative species identifies areas globally for in situ conservation. Commun Biol 2:1–8. https://doi.org/10.1038/s42003-019-0372-z
[54]	Wang H, Fu R, Kumar A, Li W (2010) Intensification of summer rainfall variability in the southeastern United States during recent decades. J Hydrometeorol 11(4):1007–1018. https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JHM1229.1
[55]	Westoby M, Burgman M (2006) Climate change as a threatening process. Austral Ecol 31:549–550
[56]	Williams JN, Seo C, Thorne J, Nelson JK, Erwin S, O’Brien JM, Schwartz MW (2009) Using species distribution models to predict new occurrences for rare plants. Divers Distrib 15(4):565–576. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1472-4642.2009.00567.x
[57]	Zurell D, Franklin J, K?nig C, Bouchet PJ, Dormann CF, Elith J, Fandos G, Feng X, Guillera-Arroita G, Guisan A, Lahoz-Monfort JJ (2020) A standard protocol for reporting species distribution models. Ecography 43(9):1261–1277