Grading Method for Impact Risk of Near-Earth Asteroids

JIN Yan1, LIANG Zixuan2, YANG Datao1, LI Mingtao3, TANG Menghui1, ZHAO Haibin4, SONG Zhengji5, SHI Fangyuan2

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Journal of Deep Space Exploration ›› 2023, Vol. 10 ›› Issue (4) : 369-377. DOI: 10.15982/j.issn.2096-9287.2023.20230092
Special Issue:Monitoring of and Desense Against Near-Earth Asteroids
Special Issue:Monitoring of and Desense Against Near-Earth Asteroids

Grading Method for Impact Risk of Near-Earth Asteroids

  • JIN Yan1, LIANG Zixuan2, YANG Datao1, LI Mingtao3, TANG Menghui1, ZHAO Haibin4, SONG Zhengji5, SHI Fangyuan2
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Abstract

Research on the grading of impact risk is an important prerequisite to dealing with the danger of impacts by near-asteroids. In this paper,a new risk-grading method was proposed to estimate the risk of near-Earth asteroid impact. The hazard forms and consequences of near-Earth asteroid impact were analyzed,and the factors of impact risk classification were sorted out. The relatively mature Torino scale model and Palermo index model were discussed,and the equivalent diameter and impact probability were taken as the main factors to design the impact risk grading method. A refinement of partition model of risk grade was established. Finally,the simulation comparison and analysis were carried out for different risk grading models.

Keywords

near-Earth asteroids / impact risk / risk grade / refinement of partition / Torino scale

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JIN Yan, LIANG Zixuan, YANG Datao, LI Mingtao, TANG Menghui, ZHAO Haibin, SONG Zhengji, SHI Fangyuan. Grading Method for Impact Risk of Near-Earth Asteroids. Journal of Deep Space Exploration, 2023, 10(4): 369‒377 https://doi.org/10.15982/j.issn.2096-9287.2023.20230092

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