Computation Methods for Impact Probability of Near-Earth Asteroids

LI Xinran1, ZHAO Haibin1,2, TANG Yuhua3, YU Xishuang4, WANG Xiuhai1,5, LI Bin1,5

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Journal of Deep Space Exploration ›› 2023, Vol. 10 ›› Issue (4) : 357-368. DOI: 10.15982/j.issn.2096-9287.2023.20230077
Special Issue:Monitoring of and Desense Against Near-Earth Asteroids
Special Issue:Monitoring of and Desense Against Near-Earth Asteroids

Computation Methods for Impact Probability of Near-Earth Asteroids

  • LI Xinran1, ZHAO Haibin1,2, TANG Yuhua3, YU Xishuang4, WANG Xiuhai1,5, LI Bin1,5
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Abstract

Risk assessment, monitoring and warning of near-Earth asteroids (NEA) have become a research hotspot, and impact probability is a key factor in assessing the threat of NEAs. In this paper, the research and development process of NEA impact probability was reviewed, the theoretical framework of impact probability computation and the main tool target plane for research were introduced, the main linear and nonlinear impact probability methods at present were sorted out. At the same time, the research on the improvement and perfection of the impact probability method in terms of computational efficiency and completeness under special circumstances such as too short arcs and non-gravitational effects in recent years was introduced. Finally, key issues and future development trends of this research direction are presented.

Keywords

near-Earth asteroids / asteroid defense / hazard assessment / impact probability

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LI Xinran, ZHAO Haibin, TANG Yuhua, YU Xishuang, WANG Xiuhai, LI Bin. Computation Methods for Impact Probability of Near-Earth Asteroids. Journal of Deep Space Exploration, 2023, 10(4): 357‒368 https://doi.org/10.15982/j.issn.2096-9287.2023.20230077

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