Multi-stage emergency medicine logistics system optimization based on survival probability

Abstract

Using sudden cardiac deaths as an example and maximizing survival rate as the goal, this paper studies the influence of multi-stage medical logistics system optimization on the survival rate of sudden illness. A distribution model of survival is built, drone and ambulance arrival probability over time are discussed, a formula is proposed for maximum possible survival rate based on the probability of emergency medical logistics reaching the patient, and the results are analyzed using empirical data fitting distribution and numerical experiments performed with the model. The model is discussed as a reference point for management decision making by changing model parameters. Results show that compared to using current ambulance vehicles, ambulance drones delivering medical equipment for first aid on-site in emergencies can significantly increase survival rate, and the effect of collaborative multi-stage logistics optimization is better than that of any single stage logistics response optimization. Simulation results show that the medical rescue logistics service radius, speed, loading capacity and performance of ambulance drones impact the probability of survival, and there is an optimal service radius depending on the shape of probability distribution, which provides new information for management decisions.

Keywords

emergency medicine logistics / ambulance drone / survival probability / critical illness

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Acknowledgement

This work was partially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 71390333), the National Key Technology R&D Program of China during the 12th Five-Year Plan Period (Grant No. 2013BAD19B05).

RIGHTS & PERMISSIONS

2017 The Author(s) 2017. Published by Higher Education Press. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0)