Evaluation of REITs resilience of infrastructure projects from the perspective of investor heterogeneity based on Geodetector Models——Empirical data from China

Abstract

This paper focuses on the economic resilience aspects of the financialization of infrastructure projects concerning enhancing market dynamics and risk regulation. We examined 39 infrastructure REITs listed in China between June 2021 and June 2024. Utilizing an economic resilience evaluation model to assess the resistance and recovery capacities of these infrastructure REITs, we incorporate seven investor heterogeneity measures. A geographic detector model is employed to analyze divergence, identify key determinant factors, pinpoint risk zones, and investigate the interaction between these measures within the context of PPP-REITs and DI-REITs. The empirical results show that the investor ratio and expected investment tenure are critical to the construction of economic resilience indices for infrastructure REITs. Also, the interaction of factors holds significance toward influencing the divergence in economic resilience. Our findings reveal a “barrel effect” of investor heterogeneity in infrastructure project financial products, indicating a consistency between economic resilience and investor heterogeneity. By integrating the investor heterogeneity index into the resilience evaluation framework of infrastructure REITs, this study offers valuable insights into the risk-resistance capacity of infrastructure financial products and the enhancement of economic resilience in these projects.

Graphical abstract

Keywords

investor heterogeneity / economic resilience / geographic detector model / infrastructure REITs

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