Recovery strategies for government-led food supply chain in COVID-19 pandemic: A simulation study

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic caused severe and enduring effects globally, impacting public health, normalcy, and productivity significantly. In response, government-led food supplies became crucial in many countries to counter the adverse effects of pandemic control measures on daily activities. Focusing on government-led food supply chain during the COVID-19 pandemic, this study employed simulations across different pandemic phases to identify and confirm effective recovery strategies. Our analysis pinpointed insufficient transportation capacity, uneven distribution of district warehouses, and production-demand mismatches as the main factors contributing to food shortages. Strategies such as enhancing transportation capacity, establishing new district warehouses, and increasing production capacity proved to significantly bolster supply chain resilience, stabilize supplies, and meet escalating demands. Opening municipal emergency warehouses ahead of potential disruptions also showed a positive recovery effect. However, while food aid from other provinces and more frequent inventory checks generally enhanced resilience, they occasionally led to unintended negative consequences. Surprisingly, reallocating food between district warehouses negatively impacted the supply chain. This research advances the understanding of government-led food supply chain vulnerabilities during significant public health crises and proposes targeted recovery strategies for different pandemic phases, aiding policymakers in better managing future emergencies.

Graphical abstract

Keywords

government-led food supply chain / food shortages / recovery strategy / simulation analysis / COVID-19 pandemic

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