Techno-economic analysis of the adoption of electric vehicles

Abstract

Significant advances in battery technology are creating a viable marketspace for battery powered passenger vehicles. Climate change and concerns over reliable supplies of hydrocarbons are aiding in the focus on electric vehicles. Consumers can be influenced by marketing and emotion resulting in behaviors that may not be in line with their stated objectives. Although sales of electric vehicles are accelerating, it may not be clear that purchasing an electric vehicle is advantageous from an economic or environmental perspective. A techno- economic analysis of electric vehicles comparing them against hybrids, gasoline and diesel vehicles is presented. The results show that the complexity of electrical power supply, infrastructure requirements and full life cycle concerns show that electric vehicles have a place in the future but that ongoing improvements will be required for them to be clearly the best choice for a given situation.

Keywords

BEV / battery powered electric vehicle / environmental impact of electric vehicles / techno-economic analysis / gasoline versus electric powered cars / diesel versus electric cars / consumer behaviour

References

[1] Ajanovic A, Haas R, Wirl F (2016). Reducing CO₂ emissions of cars in the EU: analyzing the underlying mechanisms of standards, registration taxes and fuel taxes. Energy Efficiency, 9(4): 925–937

[2] An S J, Li J, Daniel C, Mohanty D, Nagpure S, Wood D L III (2016). The state of understanding of the lithium-ion-battery graphite solid electrolyte interphase (SEI) and its relationship to formation cycling. Carbon, 105: 52–76

[3] Avci B, Girotra K, Netessine S (2014). Electric vehicles with a battery switching station: adoption and environmental impact. Management Science, 61(4): 772–794

[4] Bastian A, Börjesson M, Eliasson J (2016). Explaining “peak car” with economic variables. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 88: 236–250

[5] Bernasek A (2002). Ten things to keep you up at night. Fortune, 145(9): 61–62

[6] Botsford C, Szczepanek A (2009). Fast charging vs. slow charging: pros and cons for the new age of electric vehicles. In: Proceedings of 24th International Battery Hybrid Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle Symposium, Stavanger, Norway

[7] Burke P J, Abayasekara A (2018). The price elasticity of electricity demand in the United States: a three-dimensional analysis. Energy Journal, 39(2): 123–145

[8] Catenacci M, Verdolini E, Bosetti V, Fiorese G (2013). Going electric: expert survey on the future of battery technologies for electric vehicles. Energy Policy, 61: 403–413

[9] Cirillo C, Liu Y, Tremblay J M (2017). Simulation, numerical approximation and closed forms for joint discrete continuous models with an application to household vehicle ownership and use. Transportation, 44(5): 1105–1125

[10] Clement-Nyns K, Haesen E, Driesen J (2010). The impact of charging plug-in hybrid electric vehicles on a residential distribution grid. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 25(1): 371–380

[11] Dadush S (2018). Why you should be unsettled by the biggest automotive settlement in history? University of Colorado Law Review Forum, 89

[12] Davis S C, Williams S E, Boundy R G, Moore S A (2017). 2016 Vehicle Technologies Market Report (No. ORNL/TM-2017/238). Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN

[13] Dewulf J, Van der Vorst G, Denturck K, Van Langenhove H, Ghyoot W, Tytgat J, Vandeputte K (2010). Recycling rechargeable lithium ion batteries: critical analysis of natural resource savings. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 54(4): 229–234

[14] Egbue O, Long S (2012). Critical issues in the supply chain of lithium for electric vehicle batteries. Engineering Management Journal, 24(3): 52–62

[15] Ellingsen L A W, Singh B, Strømman A H (2016). The size and range effect: lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions of electric vehicles. Environmental Research Letters, 11(5): 054010

[16] Gaines L (2014). The future of automotive lithium-ion battery recycling: charting a sustainable course. Sustainable Materials and Technologies, 1: 2–7

[17] Gerarden T D, Newell R G, Stavins R N (2017). Assessing the energy-efficiency gap. Journal of Economic Literature, 55(4): 1486–1525

[18] Gerssen-Gondelach S J, Faaij A P (2012). Performance of batteries for electric vehicles on short and longer term. Journal of Power Sources, 212: 111–129

[19] Goncharuk A G, Havrysh V I, Nitsenko V S (2018). National features for alternative motor fuels market. International Journal of Energy Technology and Policy, 14(2–3): 226–249

[20] Goodenough J B, Park K S (2013). The Li-ion rechargeable battery: a perspective. Journal of the American Chemical Society, 135(4): 1167–1176

[21] Graham-Rowe E, Gardner B, Abraham C, Skippon S, Dittmar H, Hutchins R, Stannard J (2012). Mainstream consumers driving plug-in battery-electric and plug-in hybrid electric cars: a qualitative analysis of responses and evaluations. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 46(1): 140–153

[22] Greene D L, Khattak A J, Liu J, Wang X, Hopson J L, Goeltz R (2017). What is the evidence concerning the gap between on-road and Environmental Protection Agency fuel economy ratings? Transport Policy, 53: 146–160

[23] Grosjean C, Miranda P H, Perrin M, Poggi P (2012). Assessment of world lithium resources and consequences of their geographic distribution on the expected development of the electric vehicle industry. Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews, 16(3): 1735–1744

[24] Hofmann J, Guan D, Chalvatzis K, Huo H (2016). Assessment of electrical vehicles as a successful driver for reducing CO₂ emissions in China. Applied Energy, 184: 995–1003

[25] International Energy Agency (2018). Global EV Outlook 2017—two million and counting. International Energy Agency

[26] Jehlik F, Wood E, Gonder J, Lopp S (2015). Simulated real-world energy impacts of a thermally sensitive powertrain considering viscous losses and enrichment. SAE International Journal of Materials and Manufacturing, 8(2): 239–250

[27] Kley F, Lerch C, Dallinger D (2011). New business models for electric cars—a holistic approach. Energy Policy, 39(6): 3392–3403

[28] Klöckner C A, Nayum A, Mehmetoglu M (2013). Positive and negative spillover effects from electric car purchase to car use. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 21: 32–38

[29] Larson P D, Viáfara J, Parsons R V, Elias A (2014). Consumer attitudes about electric cars: pricing analysis and policy implications. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 69: 299–314

[30] Leard B, Linn J, McConnell V (2017). Fuel prices, new vehicle fuel economy, and implications for attribute-based standards. Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, 4(3): 659–700

[31] Levinson A (2016). Energy efficiency standards are more regressive than energy taxes: theory and evidence. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 22956, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

[32] Lucsko D N (2014). Of clunkers and Camaros: accelerated vehicle retirement programs and the automobile enthusiast, 1990–2009. Technology and Culture, 55(2): 390–428

[33] Lutsey N, Sperling D (2005). Energy efficiency, fuel economy, and policy implications. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 1941(1): 8–17

[34] Manthiram A (2011). Materials challenges and opportunities of lithium ion batteries. Journal of Physical Chemistry Letters, 2(3): 176–184

[35] Neubauer J S, Wood E, Pesaran A (2015). A second life for electric vehicle batteries: answering questions on battery degradation and value. SAE International Journal of Materials and Manufacturing, 8(2): 544–553

[36] Neumann I, Franke T, Cocron P, Bühler F, Krems J F (2015). Eco-driving strategies in battery electric vehicle use—how do drivers adapt over time? IET Intelligent Transport Systems, 9(7): 746–753

[37] Noori M, Gardner S, Tatari O (2015). Electric vehicle cost, emissions, and water footprint in the United States: development of a regional optimization model. Energy, 89: 610–625

[38] Nykvist B, Nilsson M (2015). Rapidly falling costs of battery packs for electric vehicles. Nature Climate Change, 5(4): 329–332

[39] Ordoñez J, Gago E J, Girard A (2016). Processes and technologies for the recycling and recovery of spent lithium-ion batteries. Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews, 60: 195–205

[40] Scrosati B, Garche J (2010). Lithium batteries: status, prospects and future. Journal of Power Sources, 195(9): 2419–2430

[41] Shiller R J (2007). Understanding recent trends in house prices and home ownership (No. w13553). National Bureau of Economic Research

[42] Socolow R, Thomas V (1997). The industrial ecology of lead and electric vehicles. Journal of Industrial Ecology, 1(1): 13–36

[43] Swanson R M, Platon A, Satrio J A, Brown R C (2010). Techno-economic analysis of biomass-to-liquids production based on gasification. Fuel, 89: S11–S19

[44] Thomas J, Huff S, West B, Chambon P (2017). Fuel consumption sensitivity of conventional and hybrid electric light-duty gasoline vehicles to driving style. SAE International Journal of Fuels and Lubricants, 10(3): 2017-01-9379

[45] Van Haaren R (2011). Assessment of electric cars’ range requirements and usage patterns based on driving behavior recorded in the National Household Travel Survey of 2009. Earth and Environmental Engineering Department, Columbia University, Fu Foundation School of Engineering and Applied Science, New York, USA

[46] Van Vliet O, Brouwer A S, Kuramochi T, Van Den Broek M, Faaij A (2011). Energy use, cost and CO₂ emissions of electric cars. Journal of Power Sources, 196(4): 2298–2310

[47] Van Wee B, Moll H C, Dirks J (2000). Environmental impact of scrapping old cars. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 5(2): 137–143

[48] Weiss M, Patel M K, Junginger M, Perujo A, Bonnel P, van Grootveld G (2012). On the electrification of road transport-Learning rates and price forecasts for hybrid-electric and battery-electric vehicles. Energy Policy, 48: 374–393

[49] Wu X, Freese D, Cabrera A, Kitch W A (2015). Electric vehicles’ energy consumption measurement and estimation. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 34: 52–67

[50] Xu J, Thomas H R, Francis R W, Lum K R, Wang J, Liang B (2008). A review of processes and technologies for the recycling of lithium-ion secondary batteries. Journal of Power Sources, 177(2): 512–527

[51] Yang H X, Zhou W, Lou C Z (2009). Optimal design and techno-economic analysis of a hybrid solar-wind power generation system. Applied Energy, 86(2): 163–169

[52] Yao Y, McDowell M T, Ryu I, Wu H, Liu N, Hu L, Nix W D, Cui Y (2011). Interconnected silicon hollow nanospheres for lithium-ion battery anodes with long cycle life. Nano Letters, 11(7): 2949–2954

[53] Zoulias E I, Lymberopoulos N (2007). Techno-economic analysis of the integration of hydrogen energy technologies in renewable energy-based stand-alone power systems. Renewable Energy, 32(4): 680–696

RIGHTS & PERMISSIONS

2019 Higher Education Press