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Frontiers of Economics in China

Front Econ Chin    2012, Vol. 7 Issue (4) : 560-579
The Potential Impact of Sino-Korean Bilateral Trade on Economic Growth and the Environment: A CGE Model Analysis
Zhuoshun Xu1(), Leshun Xu2()
1. Institute of Soft Science, Jilin Provincial Academy of Social Sciences, Changchun 130033, China; Department of Economics, Korea University, Soul 136-701, Korea; 2. Department of Applied Mathematics, Northwest A&F University, Yangling 712100, China
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A consensus is still to be reached regarding the relationship between trade, growth, and the environment in either the existing theoretical models or previous empirical analyses. By using a Sino-Korean case study, we expect this work to contribute to the theoretical and empirical knowledge of the relationship between trade, growth and the environment. In this paper, four types of simulation are executed by applying a Sino-Korea CGE model. The results reveal that an increasing volume of bilateral trade boosts the real GDP at a decreasing rate. Different degrees in the volume of increase of bilateral trade produce welfare gains for Chinese households, i.e. more household spending. Welfare increases at a decreasing rate when the degree of bilateral trade growth increases less stringently, while in Korea there are welfare losses (less household consumption) when the bilateral trade target becomes increasingly stringent. Moreover, the investment gains in the economy tend to rise more sharply as the degree of bilateral trade growth increases less stringently in China. The investment tends to decrease at a proportional rate when the target bilateral trade volume becomes more stringent and the changes in the gross investment become more significant in Korea. In addition, the aggregate production shows a tendency to increase at a proportional rate with a more stringent target bilateral trade volume and when there are considerable changes in gross production. Furthermore, the impact of most production sectors can benefit China, but have a negative impact on Korea. Meantime, the simulations highlight that import growth increases carbon emissions at a decreasing rate, and export growth increases carbon emissions. According to our policy findings, policy makers should be advised to consider the third trade policy (Scenario c), which maintains a reasonable economic growth but at the expense of investment and welfare.

Keywords Sino-Korean trade      economic growth      environment      CGE model     
Corresponding Author(s): Zhuoshun Xu,; Leshun Xu,   
Issue Date: 05 December 2012
 Cite this article:   
Zhuoshun Xu,Leshun Xu. The Potential Impact of Sino-Korean Bilateral Trade on Economic Growth and the Environment: A CGE Model Analysis[J]. Front Econ Chin, 2012, 7(4): 560-579.
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