In the global changing era, it is essential to analyze the future trend of agricultural development in China and forecast the target, direction, and path of China’s agricultural modernization toward 2050 in order to provide support for policy making. In this paper, we first investigate agricultural development in the past four decades and then analyze the opportunities and challenges to be faced. Finally, we forecast the future agricultural development in China. Our study shows that China’s agriculture has experienced a rapid growth for the past four decades, underlying which technology progress, institutional innovation, marketization reform, and public investment are attributed as the four major driving forces. Looking forward to the future, agricultural development in China still encounters a lot of challenges including slowdown in productivity growth, degradation in soil and water, and uncertainty of the global supply chain. This implies that, toward 2050, China should stick to the principles of innovation, green, high efficiency, and sustaintability, and accelerate agricultural modernization through efficiently producing more high-valued and green products, so as to maintain domestic food security and self-sustained agricultural supply. To achieve the long-term goal, the government should develop seven major strategies with a focus on biological technology and seedling innovation, and initiate a series of agriculture-supportive policies such as prioritized development of agriculture, innovative land reforms, farmers training, high-value agriculture support, and global agricultural trade management.

To achieve common prosperity, we need to equalize the labor productivity in agriculture with that in other non-agricultural sectors. China’s agricultural labor productivity is less than 1/3 of that in the manufacturing and service industries. Our analysis on the trend of agricultural development suggests that it is essential to raise the agricultural labor productivity through internal labor division to ensure national food security. The breeding industry needs to transform toward scaled and modernized development and the planting industry needs to change to a new pattern—20% of large-scale farmers produce 80% of agricultural products or contribute 20% of added value while 80% of small-scale farmers produce 20% of agricultural products or contribute 80% of added value. Large-scale farmers mainly produce bulk agricultural products including grain to ensure food security while small-scale farmers develop high-value agriculture to ensure income growth. Eventually, the labor productivity of large- and small-scale farmers will converge to achieve common prosperity, which is inevitable for China’s agricultural development and is an ideal vision in line with national realities. However, the task of transforming to the new pattern is arduous, and the government needs to make major strategic deployments and introduce corresponding safeguards and incentive measures. Particularly, it is necessary to establish a policy support system for large- and small-scale farmers, accelerate the progress of urban-rural integrated development, improve the land transfer markets, optimize the innovative system of agricultural science and technology as well as the human capacity building system, and establish an organizational guarantee system to realize agricultural modernization.

The balance of supply and demand for agricultural resources in China is becoming increasingly tight due to the multiple effects of high-quality agricultural production, transformation and upgrading of food consumption structure, and climate change. Therefore, it is crucial for China to integrate the international and domestic resources and markets to ensure food security in the medium and long term. Based on a comparative analysis of agricultural resources in China and abroad, we investigate food consumption demand, consumption structure, and supply structure in China by 2035 and 2050. The agricultural resource utilization targets for China by 2035 and 2050 are proposed based on an analysis of the agricultural resource supply-demand gap as well as import potentials and sources of virtual water and virtual arable land. We find that the import of virtual arable land by China will reach a peak around 2048, with nearly 6.147×10⁷ hm². Virtual water imports will reach a peak around 2045. If estimated by blue water, virtual water imports will be 1.136×10⁸ m³, accounting for 30% of the total agricultural water consumption in 2017. The increase in the import potentials of China’s arable land will mainly come from South America and Africa.

This article reviews China’s agricultural development history and prospects China’s agricultural development by 2050 considering the implications of global agricultural development trends on China’s agriculture. The transformations of the overall economic structure and the rural economy should be combined to enhance agricultural labor productivity and promote the rapid development of agriculture. By 2050, the share of agriculture GDP in China’s total economy and the share of agricultural employment in China's total employment will reach convergency gradually. China’s food self-sufficiency rate will drop from the current 95% to about 90% in 2035 and will further drop by 2050. High-value agricultural products and multifunctional agriculture are the major driving forces for future agricultural growth and income raise of farmers. The strategic priorities for realizing China’s agricultural modernization by 2050 include: (1) improving agricultural productivity and ensuring national food security; (2) maximizing the comparative advantages of agricultural products; (3) promoting green, high-efficiency, and high-value agriculture; (4) guaranteeing sustainable utilization of agricultural water and soil resources; and (5) guiding modern agricultural development through institutional, policy, and investment reforms. Salient policy recommendations include: (1) increasing investment in technology and infrastructure to improve agricultural productivity; (2) enhancing the development of advantageous agriculture and agriculture with large demand potentials based on ensuring food security; (3) improving the market environment by rectifying market failures to support the development of high-value agriculture; (4) maintaining the sustainable development of agriculture; and (5) optimizing the allocation of land, labor, capital, and other agricultural production factors.

To realize rural revitalization, this article analyzes the trends of China’s agricultural product demand, agricultural industrial structure, and agricultural labor demand in the next 30 years, and proposes that China should insist on the development of modern smart ecological agriculture in the future. To ensure national food security and achieve sustainable development of a high-efficiency, green, and high-value agriculture, China should promote agricultural efficiency improvement, system optimization, and efficient recycling of resources. It is necessary to reconstruct four systems: innovative agricultural science and technology, modern agricultural management, socialized agricultural service, and new-era agricultural personnel systems. Biological, equipment, ecological, and information technologies should be innovated to improve the agriculture sector. Furthermore, five major projects are recommended including pilot demonstration project for modern smart ecological agriculture, modern production and living waste treatment project, high-quality development monitoring and evaluation project for the whole agricultural industry chain, planting and breeding combined project led by breeding enterprises, and agricultural and rural personnel cultivation project.

The mode transformation of agricultural production is a common concern for China and worldwide. Currently, the level of mechanization has been significantly promoted for the agriculture sector in China and smart production becomes an inevitable trend for modern agriculture. Smart agriculture regards data, knowledge, and intelligent equipment as the core elements and integrates modern science and technology with agriculture to realize digital perception, intelligent decision-making, precise operation, and smart management in the entire process of agricultural production, thereby greatly improving labor productivity, resource utilization rate, and land output rate. This article presents the current status of agricultural production in China using rice production as an example, and analyzes the necessity, opportunities, challenges, directions, and route for the intelligent transformation of China’s agriculture. Furthermore, we propose policy suggestions to promote the intelligent development of China’s agricultural production, including (1) strengthening the research and innovation system for agricultural machinery, (2) improving the agricultural machinery promotion system, (3) optimizing the socialized service system for agricultural machinery, and (4) accelerating the construction of smart agriculture demonstration zones.

Agricultural machinery and equipment is the material basis of modern agricultural development and an important symbol of agricultural mechanization. The new generation of information technology can drive the intelligent transformation and upgrading of agricultural machinery and equipment. The coordinated development of intelligent agricultural equipment and information technology has become a new trend of modern agricultural development, which is of positive significance for improving agricultural production efficiency and promoting high-quality and efficient development of agricultural machinery. This paper compares and analyzes the research status of smart agriculture in China and abroad and summarizes the research progress and trend of agricultural machinery and agricultural information technology in China. Based on the analysis of development needs and values of modern smart agriculture in China, we propose the following projects: an agricultural ecosystem monitoring network infrastructure project, a national agricultural big data center and operation mechanism construction project, an intelligent agricultural equipment research and application project, an agricultural information service demonstration project, and a fruit and vegetable commercial processing intelligent sensing technology and equipment research and demonstration project. To provide a solid guarantee for guiding the development of modern smart agriculture, China should increase agricultural science and technology innovation input, establish an agricultural industry–university–research innovation alliance, and improve agricultural science and technology innovation incentive policies.

As cropland and water resources are most valuable, the rational development and utilization of agricultural water and land resources are crucial for national food, ecological, and resource security. Therefore, obtaining timely and accurate information about the quantity and utilization of these resources is vital for national stability and socio-economic development. Here, we summarize the status quo and problems of the monitoring and information services of agricultural water and land resources in China, and expound on the framework of a monitoring and information service system. Additionally, we propose the strategic goals, namely, realizing automatic, intelligent, and unmanned monitoring of agricultural resources and environment and marketing the monitoring information services. These goals can be achieved by increasing the efficiency and outcomes of water and land use and optimizing the spatial allocation of agricultural land and water resources. Moreover, we analyze the technological routes for agricultural water and land resource monitoring in the context of the deep integration of information technology and agriculture, and propose specific projects from the aspects of infrastructure construction, core technology development and integration, and information services. Furthermore, we propose the following policy suggestions: (1) strengthening the top-level design, (2) enhancing scientific and technological innovation, (2) building a sharing platform for agricultural resource monitoring, (4) deepening the interaction of government, industry, universities, research institutes, and users of agricultural resources, and (5) promoting high-level talent training. Our study is expected to provide theoretical references for the development of the agricultural water and land resource monitoring in China.

Green development of the agricultural whole industry chain (AWIC) is vital for enhancing agricultural products’ competitiveness and increasing added value of the industry; it is also inevitable for improving resource utilization efficiency and ensuring sustainable economic growth. In this study, we define the concept of AWIC green development and analyze its characteristics based on existing theories of AWIC and agriculture green development. We analyze the AWIC development status, major challenges, and feasible pathways in China. Our study shows that critical dilemmas regarding the AWIC green transformation include insufficient systematic design, short industrial chain, difficulty in participation of small- and medium-sized entities, low resource utilization efficiency, lack of value-added effect, and lack of ecological synergy. The AWIC green transformation and policy support are essential in elevating values for the whole industry chain. The major pathways for AWIC green development include internal circulation integration, horizontal expansion, vertical element integration, and cross-industrial integration. We suggest that China should strengthen top-level design, boost innovation, expand ecological advantages, improve supervision services of the whole industry, and explore benefit coupling mechanisms. These measures can complete the industrial layout, optimize the product value transformation system, and promote the AWIC green development.

Promoting the competitiveness of China’s agricultural industry is crucial for building China into a great modern country. The aggravation of agricultural external risks and the basic national conditions—smallholder farmers, resource shortage, and tight balance of agricultural products supply and demand—propose new requirements and challenges to the competitiveness of China’s agricultural industry. It becomes urgent to redefine the competitiveness of agricultural industry and propose a corresponding strategic framework for the new development stage. In this study, we propose a new concept of agricultural industry competitiveness labeled as safe and diversified, green and efficient, core control, and independent competition. Moreover, we establish a competitiveness evaluation index system for the agricultural industry considering three core components: security assurance, industrial control, and market competitiveness; we evaluate the competitiveness of China’s agricultural industry using this system to explore the weaknesses of the industry. Furthermore, we propose competitiveness upgrade paths and countermeasures for China’s agricultural industry at the new stage. Specifically, China should ensure a stable supply of important agricultural products, expand the value-added space of its agricultural industry, promote the modernization of agricultural operation and services, encourage international cooperation, and give priority to the development of agricultural science and technologies.

Water is the key factor restricting the ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin. A coordinated strategy system that centers on water needs to be established for protecting and developing the Yellow River Basin based on a systematic, holistic, and synergistic orientation. The system is critical for implementing major national strategies on the Yellow River. This paper evaluates the achievements and key challenges in the management of the Yellow River Basin. The system that we explore in this study comprises five aspects: (1) regional coordination, (2) coordination of water ecology, environment, resources, security, and culture, (3) environmental factor governance coordination, (4) pollution reduction and carbon reduction coordination, and (5) multiple policy coordination. Furthermore, we propose some policy suggestions from the strategic perspective of coordinated regional development, including constructing a coordinated policy system, establishing an overall coordination mechanism of basin protection and development, strengthening a market-oriented governance mechanism, improving a value realization mechanism of ecological products of the basin, implementing synergistic actions coordinating pollution reduction and carbon reduction, and implementing a systematic protection and management project.

The Yellow River Basin is an important ecological barrier for China; the ecology there is sensitive and fragile and ecological problems are severe in some regions. Therefore, it is necessary to conduct a systematic planning of ecological management and address prominent problems for the basin. To further promote the ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin, this article analyzes the major challenges regarding ecological protection in the region and summarizes the major problems there from the aspects of investment in ecological management, construction of ecological monitoring networks, and modernization of ecological management capacities. Based on this, we propose a strategic system framework for integrated ecological governance in the Yellow River Basin led by major projects. The integrated ecological governance should consider the spatial differentiation of upper, middle, and lower reaches and adhere to the principle of systematic design. Moreover, measures need to adapt to local conditions, and land and water should be linked for joint prevention and control. Additionally, major projects are required to lead the integrated governance, including mountain–river–forest–farmland–lake–grass–sand integrated protection, environmental pollution comprehensive control, and ecological management modernization projects. Considering the urgency and necessity of solving current ecological problems, we propose the following suggestions: (1) establishing an ecological management project library, (2) implementing major projects in stages and in batches, (3) conducting entire-process supervision and effectiveness evaluation of major projects, and (4) strengthening scientific and technological support for the major projects.

The ecological environment of the Yellow River Basin is sensitive and fragile. Affected by climate change and large-scale, high-intensity human development for a long time, the overall and systemic ecological degradation of the basin is prominent, and the ecological security situation is unoptimistic. To effectively promote ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin and build a strong ecological security barrier, we systematically evaluate the current status and changes of the Yellow River Basin ecosystem in terms of structure and quality in the past two decades, and summarize the main problems and deficiencies existing in the upper, middle, and lower reaches of the Yellow River, including the ecological fragility of the basin, prominent systemic degradation, and the constraints of the current work in terms of institutional mechanism, investment, and implementing effect. Then we propose future ecological protection and restoration strategies. Our research shows that the ecosystem of the Yellow River Basin has maintained a stable structure in the past two decades, but its types have changed significantly; cities and towns have expanded significantly, forest, grasslands, and wetlands have increased, and the desertified area has been significantly reduced. The overall quality of the ecosystem, particularly in the middle reaches, has improved, and degradation still exists in some regions, particularly in the lower reaches. Therefore, we propose that ecological protection and restoration of the Yellow River Basin should be strengthened through three aspects: (1) systematically evaluating the implementing effect of ecological projects, (2) promoting ecological protection and restoration according to local conditions, and (3) innovating the value realization mechanism of ecological products, so as to ensure the ecological security of the region.

Water and sediment regulation is critical for the long-term safety of the Yellow River. Influenced by both natural factors and human activities such as water and soil conservation, the amount of water and sediments of the Yellow River continues varying. The amount of water resources decreases slightly and sediments decrease sharply. A scientific prediction of the amount of sediments in the future is crucial for formulating the strategy for water and sediment regulation of the Yellow River. In this paper, we analyze the variation characteristics of the amount of water and sediments from 1919 to 2020, predict the annual sediment transport of the Yellow River in the next 50 years, and systematically summarize the main problems regarding water and sediment regulation in the Yellow River Basin such as river sedimentation atrophy in the upper reaches, incompatibility between river regulation strategies with high-quality development requirements in the lower reaches, and mismatched measures of soil and water loss control in the Loess Plateau. Three targeted strategies for water and sediment regulation under new conditions are proposed. The first is to perfect the water and sediment regulation engineering system with focus on the development of Heishanxia reach and the construction of the Guxian water conservancy project. The second is to manage regionally floodplains at the lower reaches, renovate river channels, and release a part of the floodplains. The third is to adjust soil and water conservation measures according to local nature and water conditions.

Northwest China is strategically crucial for China’s economic development, social stability, and national defense security. However, the shortage of water resources and its fragile ecological environment have been hindering local economic development and life quality improvement for local residents. In this study, we analyze the characteristics of agricultural production and trade in Northwest China from 2000 to 2018 from the perspective of water footprint and virtual water, and clarifies the impact of virtual water flow on local water resources. Research shows that the water footprint regarding crop production in Northwest China showed a fluctuating upward trend from 2000 to 2018. The outflow scale of virtual water gradually increases alongside with the transfer-out of fruits and cotton. The outflow of virtual water regarding fruits and cotton in Northwest China was 3.212 × 10¹¹ m³ in 2018, accounting for 69.8 % of the total water footprint regarding crop production. The Yellow River Basin is the primary inflow area of virtual water from Northwest China, and the region northwest to the “Qice line” is the primary outflow area of virtual water. Water shortage is severe in Northwest China and fruit and cotton are planted for trade to drive economic growth. Therefore, optimizing the crop planting and virtual water trade structures and encouraging inter-basin water transfer are key measures to regulate physical–virtual water cycle, alleviate the contradiction between water supply and demand, and ensure regional water security.

To promote the construction of ecological civilization in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, the Chinese Academy of Engineering launched a major consulting project in 2019 titled “Study on Several Strategic Issues for the Construction of Ecological Civilization in Yangtze River Economic Belt”. Based on the results of the project, this paper summarizes the achievements of ecological civilization construction in Yangtze River Economic Belt in terms of top-level design, green demonstration, ecological protection, and environmental improvement, and then analyzes its main challenges regarding territorial development, industrial layout, river–lake relationship, ecological security, energy development, and environmental risks. Based on the concept of a life community of mountains, rivers, forests, farmland, lakes, grass, and sand, we propose several strategic suggestions focusing on ecological space management and control, water ecosystem health, green and high-quality development, ecological protection and restoration, ecological agriculture and forestry development, ecological product value realization, and ecolog¬ical civilization governance system.

The Yangtze River Economic Belt is a vital ecological security barrier and a focus of China’s economic development. Promoting the construction of urban agglomerations in the Yangtze River Basin is of great significance for accelerating the development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt. Using the five urban agglomerations in the Yangtze River Economic Belt as the research object, we evaluate their environmental carrying capacities and explore the coupling relationship between urban agglomeration development and environmental carrying capacity using a four-quadrant analysis method. We categorize these urban agglomerations into three types. The results show that the urban agglomeration in the Yangtze River Delta belongs to a mature–environmental overload type, the urban agglomerations in Chengdu–Chongqing and the middle reaches of the Yangtze River belong to the high-speed development–environmental overload type, and the urban agglomerations in central Guizhou and central Yunnan belong to the cultivation–environmental non-overload type. Furthermore, we propose strategic suggestions for the development of urban agglomerations in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from the aspects of ecological space control, optimization of land spatial pattern, green development of urban agglomerations, and improvement of human settlement environment. These aim to strengthen the guiding role of environmental carrying capacity in the development of urban agglomerations and provide basic support for promoting the high-quality development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt.

This study aims to uncover the paradigm of green development of industrial parks in the Yangtze River Economic Belt by integrating economic development, spatial configuration, pillar industries, energy-environmental infrastructure, water use, and economic-environmental performance. We identify the major challenges faced by the industrial parks in the region and then propose policy implications targeting eco-transformation of the parks. The key findings are as follows. Industrial parks have been playing a significant role in facilitating manufacturing industry and economic-social development in the Yangtze River Basin, by contributing more than 50% of the gross industrial output values of the provinces along the Yangtze River. It is necessary to strengthen the strategic position of the industrial parks for robust manufacturing industries in China. However, along the Yangtze River, there are large number heavy-industries and industrial parks, posing intensive pressure on resources and energy, as well as a huge pollutants emission. We classify four major points on ecological-environmental issues in the parks. First, some parks still need to enhance the initiative, consciousness and innovation of ecological civilization construction. Second, the parks should pose great importance on optimizing the industrial structure and environmental management of industrial parks, and declining the gap between leading parks and low-efficient ones substantially. Third, many parks have high carbon dioxide emissions, and have employed a coal-dependent energy infrastructure featured by small capacity and low efficiency. Fourth, industrial parks have yet to effectively control the total amount of freshwater consumption and reduce toxic and harmful pollutants reduction, pursuing clean and safe water. Given the challenges, we propose policy recommendations on innovation and eco-transformation of industrial parks from three aspects to achieve a marked height. The first aspect is to strengthen the grand plan for green development of industrial parks by integrating the upstream and downstream regions. The local authorities have the demand to release green development report annually. The second aspect is to deepen the green and low-carbon transformation of parks through conserving resources, increasing eco-efficiency, and exploring renewable resources comprehensively. Furthermore, it is crucial to advance the overall efficiency of energy and environmental infrastructure from the consideration of life cycle. Fostering industrial symbiosis between infrastructure is also a promising alternative. Third, it is urgent to balance the development of chemical industrial parks and the carrying capacity of water systems, by controlling pollution for the whole process using precise and scientific strategies, employing sustainable water stewardship, and protecting water eco-system.

Working together on protection instead of excessive development is the key strategy for promoting the high-quality development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt. It is necessary to tackle principal contradictions with targeted measures in the process of Yangtze River protection. In this paper, we analyze the major issues regarding water security and aquatic ecosystem protection in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, including the severe flood control safety situation, the serious shrinkage of suitable habitats for aquatic animals and biodiversity reduction, and the dysfunctional relationship between the Yangtze River and its connected lakes. Additional, we propose several targeted measures and strategies. The measures for improving the flood control capability are to accelerate the construction of safety projects in critical flood storage and detention areas and revise the Yangtze River Basin Flood Control Planning. The strategies for restoring the damaged aquatic ecosystem are to construct substitute habitats in the tributaries in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River, restore the connection between the Yangtze River and some former connected lakes in the middle and lower reaches, and expand the ecological operation of reservoirs. The strategies for regulating the river–lake relationship are to improve the four water systems in the north of the Dongting Lake and build floodgates at the outlet of the Poyang Lake.

In view of the risks and challenges facing China’s energy and mining security, this article analyzes the changes and development pattern of China’s energy demand under the target of carbon peak and carbon neutrality. The coupling development of new and fossil energy resources is an inevitable path for ensuring a stable supply of diversified energies in China in the future. In this article, we study the characteristics of fifth-generation communication, big data, blockchain, and artificial intelligence technologies and their application prospects in the energy and mining fields, and propose a technological path for reforming China’s energy and mining governance system based on the new-generation information technologies. Specifically, we explore the integration of the new-generation information technologies with the energy and mining development technologies and their application to energy production, transportation, consumption, market, and government regulation. Moreover, we propose a strategic approach of building a new governance model of energy and mining industries based on the new-generation information technologies. To this end, it is necessary to strengthen basic research and equipment development, support new infrastructure construction in energy and mining fields, provide policy and fund guarantee, and establish a national intelligent platform for energy and mining safety production and trade.

Corrosion management is vital to safety production, national economy, ecological civilization, resource conservation, and national construction. Although a few industries have conducted some fruitful exploration and practice in corrosion management, the overall development of corrosion management in China is very uneven, and there exist problems such as weak awareness of corrosion management, shortage of professionals, and imperfect management system. Therefore, it is necessary to further explore the concept of corrosion management and clarify the basic requirements for the systematic development of corrosion management in China, so as to promote the sustainable and healthy development of the corrosion management system of China. Based on the major achievements of the Chinese Academy of Engineering consulting project “Strategic Research on the Status and Countermeasures of Corrosion Management in China”, this paper expounds on the corrosion management concept and the significance of the systematic development, analyzes the current status and problems of the corrosion management in China, summarizes the main points, and proposes the basic framework of the corrosion management system. Moreover, we propose several countermeasures to promote corrosion management, such as incorporating corrosion management into the national security strategy, strengthening the training of corrosion personnel, improving corrosion protection laws and standards, strengthening the construction of corrosion databases, building an information exchange platform, and creating a new mode of shared management.

A scientific supervision system enhances vigorous and standardized development of emerging things. Artificial intelligence-based software as a medical device (AI-Based SaMD) is an important product in the health field enabled by artificial intelligence (AI). As AI develops further, its unique black box algorithm and independent learning ability have posed major supervision challenges. AI-Based SaMD supervision needs to keep pace with the times and a more scientific supervision strategy is urgently required to minimize the adverse events of AI-Based SaMD and their risk impact. This article summarizes the current status of supervision systems and supporting resources of AI-Based SaMD in China and abroad considering the difficulties in algorithm change management, quality control, and safety traceability. In addition, we explore the problems and challenges of AI-Based SaMD in China. Furthermore, we suggest that the AI-Based SaMD supervision and support systems should be improved in China to overcome the disadvantages of post-market supervision.