Computation Methods for Impact Probability of Near-Earth Asteroids

Abstract

Risk assessment, monitoring and warning of near-Earth asteroids (NEA) have become a research hotspot, and impact probability is a key factor in assessing the threat of NEAs. In this paper, the research and development process of NEA impact probability was reviewed, the theoretical framework of impact probability computation and the main tool target plane for research were introduced, the main linear and nonlinear impact probability methods at present were sorted out. At the same time, the research on the improvement and perfection of the impact probability method in terms of computational efficiency and completeness under special circumstances such as too short arcs and non-gravitational effects in recent years was introduced. Finally, key issues and future development trends of this research direction are presented.

Key words： near-Earth asteroids; asteroid defense; hazard assessment; impact probability

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