Full lifetime cost analysis of battery, plug-in hybrid and FCEVs in China in the near future

Abstract

This paper analyzes the full lifetime cost of battery electric vehicles (BEVs), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), and fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) in China in the near future. The full lifetime cost comprises the initial and periodic cost of owning and operating the vehicle. Compared with the conventional gasoline vehicles, the full lifetime cost of the BEVs, PHEVs and FCEVs are approximately 1.5, 0.5 and 2.3 times more in the short term, respectively, due to the higher initial costs and higher non-energy-related costs though the fuel costs are lower. The results also suggest that with reasonably anticipatable technological progress in the long term, the lifetime cost of advanced electric vehicles (EVs) can be close to that of gasoline vehicles. It is found that two aspects of action are most important to make BEVs cost-effective: to support technology improvement to decrease the high cost of BEV and to formulate high energy cost of operating the conventional gasoline car. Moreover, it is important to decrease the non-energy operating costs including registration fee, tax rate and etc., of BEVs at the same time.

Key words： electric vehicle (EV); life time cost; China

Acknowledgements

The project is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 71041028 and 71103109), the National Social Science Foundation of China (No. 09&ZD029), MOE Project of Key Research Institute of Humanities and Social Sciences at Universities in China (No. 2009JJD790029) and the CAERC program (Tsinghua/GM/SAIC-China).

References

1 NBS (National Bureau of Statistics of China). 2008 National Economic and Social Development Statistical Report. 2009, http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjgb/ndtjgb/qgndtjgb/t20090226_402540710.htm (in Chinese)

2 Xinhuanet. China has reached to number 1 in vehicle production and sales in 2009. 2010, http://news.xinhuanet.com/auto/2010-01/11/content_12791236.htm (in Chinese)

3 CATARC (China Automotive Technology and Research Center), CAAM (Chinese Automotive Manufacturers Association). China Automotive Industry Yearbooks, 1991-2008. 2008 (in Chinese)

4 Ou X, Zhang X, Chang S. Scenario analysis on alternative fuel/vehicle for China's future road transport: Life-cycle energy demand and GHG emissions. Energy Policy, 2010, 38(8): 3943–3956

5 Davis S, Diegel S. Transportation Energy Data Book. 28th ed. Oak Ridge National Laboratory, USA, 2009

6 EU (European Union). EU Energy and Transport in Figures-Statistical Pocketbook 2006. 2007

7 IEA. (International Energy Agency). World Energy Outlook 2008. Paris: OECD/IEA. 2008

8 Cai W, Wang C, Chen J, Wang K, Zhang Y, Lu X. Comparison of CO₂ emission scenarios and mitigation opportunities in China’s five sectors in 2020. Energy Policy, 2008, 36(3): 1181–1194

9 Zhang A, Shen W, Han W, Chai Q. Life Cycle Analysis of Automotive Alternative Energy. Beijing: Tsinghua University Press, 2008 (in Chinese)

10 Ou X, Chang S, Zhang X. Alternative fuel buses currently in use in China: life-cycle fossil energy use, GHG emissions and policy recommendations. Energy Policy, 2010, 38(1): 406–418

11 Ou X, Qin Y, Chang S, Zhang X.Life-cycle analysis of energy consumption and GHG emissions of electric vehicle in China in future. Automobiles and Parts, 2009, (13): 40–41 (in Chinese)

12 MOST. (The Ministry of Science and Technology of the People׳s Republic of China). Application guideline for the program of national high technology R&D (the section of EV technology). 2010, http://www.most.gov.cn (in Chinese)

13 Ren Y, Li H, Sun R, Guan L. Analysis on model of life cycle cost of electric vehicle based on consumer perspective. Technology Economics, 2009, 28(11): 54–58 (in Chinese)

14 CAERC (China Automotive Energy Research Center Tsinghua University). Life Cycle Cost Data for Vehicle and Fuel in China. Technology Report. 2010 (in Chinese)

15 Wagner D V, An F, Wang C. Structure and impacts of fuel economy standards for passenger cars in China. Energy Policy, 2009, 37(10): 3803–3811