Correlation between carbon emissions and energy structure –Reliability analysis of low carbon target
Received date: 24 Mar 2010
Accepted date: 15 Sep 2010
Published date: 05 Jun 2011
Copyright
The influence of energy intensity ϵ on carbon intensity κ depends upon the fraction of energy mixes with high carbon emissions in the total energy mixes γ. The correlation of γ with a variety of primary energy mix fractions and technology advances such as CCS and CCHP is analyzed and deduced. Taking the long-term carbon reduction target in 2050 settled upon by the Copenhagen Agreement and the mid-term target suggested by the “450 Scenes Program” of the International Energy Agency (IEA) as constraints, the new pattern of the energy transition of the world in 2020, 2030, and 2050 are estimated and figured out. The peak value of energy consumption will lag behind the peak value of carbon emissions; the world energy structure shifting point will be in 2020–2025. Estimates show that China’s mid-2020 and long-term targets of energy-saving and emission reduction announced by the Chinese government might be achieved.
Ben HUA . Correlation between carbon emissions and energy structure –Reliability analysis of low carbon target[J]. Frontiers in Energy, 0 , 5(2) : 214 -220 . DOI: 10.1007/s11708-010-0133-7
| 1 |
Hua B.China’s low-carbon energy strategy study. Energy Policy Research, 2009, (5): 3-11 (in Chinese)
|
| 2 |
Hua B. World and China’s energy structure at incoming low-carbon era. SINO-Global Energy, 2010, 15(2): 1-9 (in Chinese)
|
| 3 |
IEA. CCS technology for the emission reduction of the world.2009-<month>11</month>-<day>06</day>, http://www.china5e.com/show.php?contentid=55056
|
| 4 |
BP. The world’s energy data. Energy Policy Research, 2007, (6): 5 (in Chinese)
|
| 5 |
BP. The world’s energy data. Energy Policy Research, 2006, (6): 5 (in Chinese)
|
| 6 |
EIA. World energy demand in 2030.2006, http://www.china5e.com
|
| 7 |
Hua B. Energy structure of the world and China in the low-carbon era. Sino-Global Energy, 2010, 6(2): 1-9 (in Chinese)
|
| 8 |
Yue X W. Overview:The Russian general scheme of gas sector development until 2030. World Petroleum Industry, 2009, 16(6): 14-21 (in Chinese)
|
| 9 |
Hua B. Influence analysis of industry structure, energy efficiency and primary energy structure to the energy intensity. SINO-Global Energy, 2010, 15(5): 1-7 (in Chinese)
|
| 10 |
MIT Energy Initiative. The future of natural gas: An interdisciplinary MIT Study.2009-<month>06</month>-<day>19</day>, http://web.mit.edu/mitei/research/studies/naturalgas.html
|
/
| 〈 |
|
〉 |