China summer precipitation simulations using an optimal ensemble of cumulus schemes

Abstract

RegCM3 (REGional Climate Model) simulations of precipitation in China in 1991 and 1998 are very sensitive to the cumulus parameterization. Among the four schemes available, none has superior skills over the whole of China, but each captures certain observed signals in distinct regions. The Grell scheme with the Fritsch-Chappell closure produces the smallest biases over the North; the Grell scheme with the Arakawa-Schubert closure performs the best over the southeast of 100°E; the Anthes-Kuo scheme is superior over the northeast; and the Emanuel scheme is more realistic over the southwest of 100°E and along the Yangtze River Basin. These differences indicate a strong degree of independence and complementarity between the parameterizations. As such, an ensemble is developed from the four schemes, whose relative contributions or weights are optimized locally to yield overall minimum root-mean-square errors from observed daily precipitation. The skill gain is evaluated by applying the identical distribution of the weights in a different period. It is shown that the ensemble always produces gross biases that are smaller than the individual schemes in both 1991 and 1998. The ensemble, however, cannot eliminate the large rainfall deficits over the southwest of 100°E and along the Yangtze River Basin that are systematic across all schemes. Further improvements can be made by a super-ensemble based on more cumulus schemes and/or multiple models.

Keywords

Regional Climate Model / cumulus schemes / optimal ensemble

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Acknowledgements

The research was partially supported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Award NA08OAR4310875, NOAA Education Partnership Program COM Howard 631017,the United States Department of Agriculture UV-B Monitoring and Research Program Grant AG CSU G-1458-6 National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2006CB403404). We acknowledged NOAA/ESRL/GSD and NCSA/UIUC for the supercomputing support. The views expressed were those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the sponsoring agencies or the Illinois State Water Survey.

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