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Frontiers of Earth Science

Front. Earth Sci.    2015, Vol. 9 Issue (1) : 105-113     DOI: 10.1007/s11707-014-0447-6
Analyzing and forecasting CO2 emission reduction in China’s steel industry
Chengkang GAO1,*(),Dan WANG2,Baohua ZHAO3,Shan CHEN1,Wei QIN1
1. SEP Key Laboratory on Eco-industry, Northeastern University, Shenyang 110819, China
2. Department of Geography, Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai 200234, China
3. Appraisal Center for Environment and Engineering, Ministry of Environmental Protection, Beijing 100012, China
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Recent measures of carbon dioxide emissions from the steel industry of China have indicated a high rate of total CO2 emissions from the industry, even compared to the rest of the world. So, CO2 emission reduction in China’s steel industry was analyzed, coupling the whole process and scenarios analysis. First, assuming that all available advanced technologies are almost adopted, this study puts forward some key potential-sectors and explores an optimal technical route for reducing CO2 emissions from the Chinese steel industry based on whole process analysis. The results show that in the stages of coking, sintering, and iron making, greater potential for reducing emissions would be fulfilled by taking some technological measures. If only would above well-developed technologies be fulfill, the CO2 emissions from 5 industry production stages would be reduced substantially, and CO2 emissions per ton of steel could be decreased to 1.24 (ton/ton-steel) by 2020. At the same time, the scenarios analysis indicates that if mature carbon-reducing technologies are adopted, and if the difference between steel output growth rate and the GDP growth rate could be controlled below 3%, CO2 emissions from China’s steel industry would approach the goal of reducing CO2 emissions per GDP unit by 40%–45% of the 2005 level by 2020. This indicates that the focus of carbon dioxide emissions reduction in China lies in policy adjustments in order to enhance technological application, and lies in reasonably controlling the pace of growth of GDP and steel output.

Keywords CO2 emission      whole-process      scenario analysis      Chinese steel industry      ecological industry     
Corresponding Authors: Chengkang GAO   
Online First Date: 12 June 2014    Issue Date: 04 February 2015
 Cite this article:   
Chengkang GAO,Dan WANG,Baohua ZHAO, et al. Analyzing and forecasting CO2 emission reduction in China’s steel industry[J]. Front. Earth Sci., 2015, 9(1): 105-113.
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Fig.1  Model of whole-process analysis.
Fig.2  Technical route and key points for CO2 emission reduction in the steel industry.
Fig.3  Model of scenario analyses.
Technologies 2005 2010 2015 2020
CO2 reduction effect/(kg·(t-s)-1) Usagerate/% CO2 reduction effect/(kg·(t-s)-1) Usagerate/% CO2 reduction effect/(kg·(t-s)-1) Usagerate/% CO2 reduction effect/(kg·(t-s)-1) Usagerate/%
CDQ 6.678 15.9 16.8 40.0 29.408 70.0 37.808 90.0
CMC 0 0 1.92 10 3.84 20.0 7.68 40.0
TRT 22.5 75.0 24 80.0 26.78 90.0 29.63 100
Converter gas recovery 24.75 37.5 29.7 45.0 53.66 66.7 76.73 90.0
Regenerative re-heating furnace 5 10.0 12.5 25.0 20 40.0 30 60.0
Hot transfer and hot charging rolling 10.8 30.0 16.2 45.0 21.6 60.0 28.8 80.0
Sinter residual-heat recovery 1.1 10 2.2 20 3.3 30 5.5 50
Low-pressure saturated steam generation 0.42 3 1.4 10 2.1 15 2.8 20
Dispatch center of energy management 4.03 6.5 9.3 15 18.6 30 37.2 60
Blast furnace slag cement 277.5 75 221.6 80 249.3 90 277 100
Slag cement 6.936 8 13.005 15 17.336 20 21.676 25
Arc-furnace steel 163.8 11.7 182 13 210 15 280 20
Tab.1  CO2 reduction forecasts and usage of CO2 emissions reduction technologies in the steel industry
Year Coking/(kg·t-1) Sintering/(kg·t-1) Iron-making/(kg·t-1) Converting/(kg·t-1) Rolling/(kg·t-1) CO2 emission/(t·(t-s)-1) Carbon-fixationper ton steel/(t·(t-s)-1) Virtual CO2 emissions/(t·(t-s)-1)
2005 366.47 162.05 1139.30 89.75 221.88 1.979 0.168 1.812
2020 279.91 136.99 1023.75 8.08 143.75 1.237 0.039 1.198
Tab.2  CO2 emissions per product in different process of steel enterprises
Scenario Year Index
GDP /(1012$) Crude steel production /(106 t) CO2 emissions per ton steel/(t·(t-s)-1) CO2 emission per unit gross value of steel industry output/(t·10-3 $) Decrease rate compared to 2005/%
Scenario I 2005 2.26 353.2 1.812 7.198
2010 5.36 626.7 1.513 5.358 25.56
2015 7.52 1009.31? 1.384 5.305 26.30
2020 9.15 1415.61? 1.198 4.751 33.99
Scenario II 2005 2.26 353.2 1.812 7.197
2010 5.36 626.7 1.513 5.358 25.56
2015 7.52 1206.66? 1.384 6.342 11.89
2020 9.15 2033.29? 1.198 6.824 ?5.19
Scenario III 2005 2.26 226.02 1.812 4.606
2010 5.36 442.17 1.513 3.78? 17.92
2015 7.52 712.12 1.384 3.743 18.74
2020 9.15 998.78 1.198 3.352 27.22
Scenario IV 2005 2.26 269.29 1.812 5.488
2010 5.36 625.65 1.513 5.349 ?2.53
2015 7.52 1204.64? 1.384 6.331 -15.37???
2020 9.15 1445.18? 1.198 4.85? 11.62
Tab.3  CO2 emissions forecast of the Chinese steel industry
Fig.4  CO2 total emissions of the Chinese steel industry from 2010 to 2020.
Fig.5  The decrease rate for CO2 emissions per unit GDP of the steel industry in China from 2010 to 2020.
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