Please wait a minute...

Frontiers of Earth Science

Front. Earth Sci.    2014, Vol. 8 Issue (2) : 309-318     DOI: 10.1007/s11707-014-0406-2
RESEARCH ARTICLE |
Effects of climate fluctuations on runoff in the headwater region of the Kaidu River in northwestern China
Zhongsheng CHEN1,Yaning CHEN2,*()
1. State key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science, Ministry of Education, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, China
2. State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
Download: PDF(376 KB)   HTML
Export: BibTeX | EndNote | Reference Manager | ProCite | RefWorks
Abstract

The aim of this study was to analyze the effects of climate fluctuations on runoff in the headwater region of the Kaidu River in northwestern China. For this purpose, precipitation and potential evaporation (PET) data from 5 meteorological stations and the runoff depth data from the Dashankou hydrological station in the headwater region of the Kaidu River from 1960 to 2009 were collected, then the trends and abrupt changes of precipitation, PET and runoff depth were analyzed by means of Mann-Kendall test (M-K test) and Mann-Kendall-Sneyers test (M-K-S test), respectively. The runoff model driven by precipitation and PET was developed in this work and the sensitivity of runoff to climate fluctuation was simulated under different scenarios. Results showed that the annual precipitation and runoff depth both exhibited an increasing trend over the periods 1960–2009; however, this is not the case for the annual PET. The abrupt changes for annual precipitation, PET and runoff depth all occurred in the early 1990s. The established driving model could well reflect the complicated nonlinear relationship among runoff depth, precipitation and PET. The sensitivity analysis indicated that the precipitation had a positive effect on the runoff depth, opposite to what were observed between PET and runoff, and the runoff depth was more sensitive to precipitation than to PET in the headwater region of the Kaidu River.

Keywords climate fluctuation      driving model      runoff depth      sensitivity analysis     
Corresponding Authors: Yaning CHEN   
Issue Date: 24 June 2014
 Cite this article:   
Zhongsheng CHEN,Yaning CHEN. Effects of climate fluctuations on runoff in the headwater region of the Kaidu River in northwestern China[J]. Front. Earth Sci., 2014, 8(2): 309-318.
 URL:  
http://journal.hep.com.cn/fesci/EN/10.1007/s11707-014-0406-2
http://journal.hep.com.cn/fesci/EN/Y2014/V8/I2/309
Service
E-mail this article
E-mail Alert
RSS
Articles by authors
Zhongsheng CHEN
Yaning CHEN
Fig.1  Location of the headwater region of the Kaidu River and the distribution of meteorological and hydrological stations.
Fig.2  Change trend of annual precipitation (a), PET (b), and runoff depth(c) during the period of 1960-2009. The long dashed line means linear trend for this period.
FactorMean value /(mm·yr-1)Trend rate/(mm·(10yr)-1)M-K testM-K-S test
ZSignificance levelAbrupt change pointSignificance level
Precipitation33410.52.070.0519910.01
PET734-2.4-0.67-19940.01
Runoff depth1868.42.840.011993, 19950.01
Tab.1  Trend and abrupt change point values of annual precipitation, PET, and runoff depth
Fig.3  M-K-S test of annual runoff depth with forward (UB) and backward (UF).
Fig.4  Comparison between observed and simulated runoff depth over the two periods.
Fig.5  Contour plot of annual change (%) in runoff depth as a function of changes in annual precipitation and PET in the headwater region of the Kaidu River.
Fig.6  Correlation between runoff depth and precipitation, runoff depth and PET during the period from 1960 to 2009.
Fig.7  Correlation between runoff depth and humidity index during the period 1960-2009.
1 AllenR G, PereiraL S, RaesD, SmithM (1998). Crop Evapotranspiration—Guidelines for Computing Crop Water Requirements. Irrigation and Drainage Paper No. 56, FAO, Rome, Italy
2 BrownA E, ZhangL, McMahonT A, WesternA W, VertessyR A (2005). A review of paired catchment studies for determining changes in water yield resulting from alterations in vegetation. J Hydrol (Amst), 310(1-4): 28-61
doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2004.12.010
3 ChenY N (2010). Research on Eco-hydrological Questions in Tarim River Basin of Xinjiang. Beijing: Science Press (in Chinese)
4 DoogeJ C I (1992). Sensitivity of runoff to climate change: a hortonian approach. Bull Am Meteorol Soc, 73(12): 2013-2024
doi: 10.1175/1520-0477(1992)073<2013:SORTCC>2.0.CO;2
5 DouY, ChenX, BaoA M, LiL H (2011). The simulation of snowmelt runoff in the ungauged Kaidu River Basin of TianShan Mountains, China. Environ Earth Sci, 62(5): 1039-1045
doi: 10.1007/s12665-010-0592-5
6 DouglasE M, VogelR M, KrollC N (2000). Trends in floods and low flows in the United States: impact of spatial correlation. J Hydrol (Amst), 240(1-2): 90-105
doi: 10.1016/S0022-1694(00)00336-X
7 RaoP G (1995). Effect of climate change on streamflows in the Mahanadi River Basin, India. Water Int, 20(4): 205-212
doi: 10.1080/02508069508686477
8 IPCC (2007). Climate change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Report AR4
9 JiangS H, RenL L, YongB, SinghV P, YangX L, YuanF (2011). Quantifying the effects of climate variability and human activities on runoff from the Laohahe basin in northern China using three different methods. Hydrol Processes, 25(16): 2492-2505
doi: 10.1002/hyp.8002
10 JonesR N, ChiewF H S, BoughtonW C, ZhangL (2006). Estimating the sensitivity of mean annual runoff to climate change using selected hydrological models. Adv Water Resour, 29(10): 1419-1429
doi: 10.1016/j.advwatres.2005.11.001
11 KendallM G (1975). Rank Correlation Methods. London: Charles Griffin
12 LanY C, ZhaoG H, ZhangY N, WenJ, HuX L, LiuJ Q, GuM L, ChangJ J, MaJ H (2010). Response of runoff in the headwater region of the Yellow River to climate change and its sensitivity analysis. J Geogr Sci, 20(6): 848-860
doi: 10.1007/s11442-010-0815-4
13 LiX M, LiL H, GuoL P, ZhangF Y, AdsavakulchaiS, ShangM (2011). Impact of climate factors on runoff in the Kaidu River watershed: path analysis of 50-year data. J Arid Land, 3(2): 132-140
doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1227.2011.00132
14 LingH B, XuH L, ShiW, ZhangQ Q (2011). Regional climate change and its effects on the runoff of Manas River, Xinjiang, China. Environ Earth Sci, 64(8): 2203-2213
doi: 10.1007/s12665-011-1048-2
15 LiuC M, FuG B (1993). The impact of climatic change on the hydrological situation of China. In: Climate Change and Its Influence. Beijing: China Meteorological Press, 205-210 (in Chinese)
16 LiuD L, LiuX Z, LiB C, ZhaoS W, LiX G (2009). Multiple time scale analysis of river runoff using wavelet transform for Dagujia River Basin, Yantai, China. Chin Geogr Sci, 19(2): 158-167
doi: 10.1007/s11769-009-0158-1
17 MaZ M, KangS Z, ZhangL, TongL, SuX L (2008). Analysis of impacts of climate variability and human activity on streamflow for a river basin in arid region of northwest China. J Hydrol (Amst), 352(3-4): 239-249
doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2007.12.022
18 MannH B (1945). Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica, 13(3): 245-259
doi: 10.2307/1907187
19 MillimanJ D, FarnsworthK L, JonesP D, XuK H, SmithL C (2008). Climatic and anthropogenic factors affecting river discharge to the global ocean, 1951-2000. Global Planet Change, 62(3-4): 187-194
doi: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2008.03.001
20 MillyP C D, DunneK A, VecchiaA V (2005). Global pattern of trends in streamflow and water availability in a changing climate. Nature, 438(7066): 347-350
doi: 10.1038/nature04312 pmid: 16292308
21 MupenziJ P, LiL H (2011). Impacts of global warming perturbation on water resources in arid zone: case study of Kaidu River Basin in Northwest China. J Mt Sci, 8(5): 704-710
doi: 10.1007/s11629-011-2180-x
22 NashJ E, SutcliffeJ V (1970). River flow forecasting through conceptual models part I: a discussion of principles. J Hydrol (Amst), 10(3): 282-290
doi: 10.1016/0022-1694(70)90255-6
23 PiaoS L, FriedlingsteinP, CiaisP, de Noblet-DucoudréN, LabatD, ZaehleS (2007). Changes in climate and land use have a larger direct impact than rising CO2 on global river runoff trends. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA, 104(39): 15242-15247
doi: 10.1073/pnas.0707213104 pmid: 17878298
24 RenL L, WangM R, LiC H, ZhangW (2002). Impacts of human activity on river runoff in the northern area of China. J Hydrol (Amst), 261(1-4): 204-217
doi: 10.1016/S0022-1694(02)00008-2
25 ScanlonB R, JollyI, SophocleousM, ZhangL (2007). Global impacts of conversions from natural to agricultural ecosystems on water resources: quantity versus quality. Water Resour Res, 43(3): W03437
doi: 10.1029/2006WR005486
26 SchreiberP (1904). Über die Beziehungen zwischen dem Niederschlag und der Wasserführung der Flüsse in Mitteleuropa. Z Meteorol, 21: 441-452
27 ShiY F, ShenY P, KangE S, LiD L, DingY J, ZhangG W, HuR J (2007). Recent and future climate change in northwest China. Clim Change, 80(3-4): 379-393
doi: 10.1007/s10584-006-9121-7
28 SneyersR (1975). Sur l'analyse statistique des séries d'observations. O.M.M., Note Technique No. 143, Gencve, Suisse
29 TanasienkoA A, ChumbaevA S (2008). Features of snowmelt runoff waters in the Cis-Salair region in an extremely snow-rich hydrological year. Contemp Probl Ecol, 1(6): 687-696
doi: 10.1134/S199542550806012X
30 TaoH, WangG Y, ShaoC, SongY D, ZouS P (2007). Climate change and its effects on runoff at the headwater of Kaidu River. J Glaci Geocry, 29: 413-417 (in Chinese)
31 XuJ H, ChenY N, LiW H, PengP Y, YangY, SongC N, WeiC M, HongY L (2013). Combining BPANN and wavelet analysis to simulate hydro-climatic processes — A case study of the Kaidu River, North-west China. Front Earth Sci, 7(2): 227-237
doi: 10.1007/s11707-013-0354-2
32 XuJ H, Chen Y N, JiM H, LuF (2008). Climate change and its effects on runoff of Kaidu River, Xinjiang, China: a multiple time-scale analysis. Chin Geogr Sci, 18(4): 331-339
doi: 10.1007/s11769-008-0331-y
33 YangQ, CuiC X (2005). Impact of climate change on the surface water of Kaidu River Basin. J Geogr Sci, 15(1): 20-28
34 YeB S, YangD Q, KaneD L (2003). Changes in Lena River streamflow hydrology: human impacts versus natural variations. Water Resour Res, 39(7): 1200
doi: 10.1029/2003WR001991
35 ZhangQ, XuC Y, YangT (2009). Variability of water resource in the Yellow River Basin of Past 50 Years, China. Water Resour Manage, 23(6): 1157-1170
doi: 10.1007/s11269-008-9320-2
36 ZhangS F, HuaD, MengX J, ZhangY Y (2011). Climate change and its driving effect on the runoff in the “Three-River Headwaters” region. J Geogr Sci, 21(6): 963-978
doi: 10.1007/s11442-011-0893-y
Viewed
Full text


Abstract

Cited

  Shared   
  Discussed