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Frontiers of Engineering Management    2019, Vol. 6 Issue (1) : 52-61     https://doi.org/10.1007/s42524-019-0002-y
RESEARCH ARTICLE
Comprehensive analysis on China’s National Climate Change Assessment Reports: Action and emphasis
Bing WANG1(), Ge HONG2, Chao-Qun CUI3, Hao YU4, Tad MURTY5
1. Beijing Key Laboratory for Precise Mining of Intergrown Energy and Resources, China University of Mining and Technology (Beijing), Beijing 100083, China; College of Resources and Safety Engineering, China University of Mining and Technology (Beijing), Beijing 100083, China; Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing 100081, China
2. College of Resources and Safety Engineering, China University of Mining and Technology (Beijing), Beijing 100083, China
3. Beijing Key Laboratory for Precise Mining of Intergrown Energy and Resources, China University of Mining and Technology (Beijing), Beijing 100083, China; College of Resources and Safety Engineering, China University of Mining and Technology (Beijing), Beijing 100083, China
4. Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing 100081, China; State Grid Energy Research Institute Company Limited, Beijing 102209, China
5. Department of Civil Engineering, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Canada
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Abstract

Climate change assessment is central for low-carbon management practice. This paper investigates China’s National Climate Change Assessment Reports of 2007, 2011, and 2015. These three reports are compared with other climate change assessment reports by data mining. The necessity of national climate change assessment is analyzed with the requirements at home and abroad. The latest progress surrounding climate change impacts, adaptation, and mitigation is outlined with the increasing temperature rise in China and the urgency of climate change commitments. The achievements in climate change assessment indicate the increasing climate change vulnerability on sectors and regions in China and the strategies and priorities for low-carbon actions. Distinct gaps and differences are identified in the coverage of industry, regions, and vulnerability assessment between our assessments and other evaluation reports. These gaps and differences demonstrate the importance and future improvements of China’s national climate change assessment in international climate governance. The outlook for China’s fourth assessment report is proposed.

Keywords climate change assessment      low-carbon management      impact      adaptation      mitigation     
在线预览日期:    发布日期: 2019-03-13
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Bing WANG
Ge HONG
Chao-Qun CUI
Hao YU
Tad MURTY
引用本文:   
Bing WANG,Ge HONG,Chao-Qun CUI, et al. Comprehensive analysis on China’s National Climate Change Assessment Reports: Action and emphasis[J]. Front. Eng, 2019, 6(1): 52-61.
网址:  
https://journal.hep.com.cn/fem/EN/10.1007/s42524-019-0002-y     OR     https://journal.hep.com.cn/fem/EN/Y2019/V6/I1/52
Departments Editorial experts Chapters Word count
China’s National AR1 17 88 25 0.68 million
China’s National AR2 16 158 40 1.12 million
China’s National AR3 16 over 500 42 1.67 million
Tab.1  General changes in the three national assessment reports on climate change
China’s National AR1 China’s National AR2 China’s National AR3 US National AR3 IPCC AR5
Part 1 History of climate change (7*) Climate change in China (10*) Facts, causes, and future of climate (10*) Changing climate in the US Physical science basis (14*)
Part 2 Impacts and adaptation (9*) Impacts and adaptation (10*) Impacts and adaptation (10*) Climate change impacts on 13 sectors (13*) Impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability (30*)
Part 3 Mitigation of socioeconomic impacts (9*) Mitigation of socioeconomic impacts (8*) Mitigation (10*) Climate change impacts on 10 regions (10*) Mitigation of climate change (16*)
Part 4 - Global assessment methods (6*) Socioeconomic impact of climate change (6*) Response Strategies (5*) Synthesis Report
Part 5 - Policies, measures, actions, and outcomes (6*) Policies, actions, and international cooperation (6*) - -
Tab.2  Framework comparison of five climate change assessment reports
Temperature Rainfall Extreme weather Sea level Glacier
China’s National AR1 An increase of 0.22°C /10 a in the recent 50 years and a total of 0.5°C–0.8°C/100 a Unclear time trends and large regional difference Obvious changes and regional differences Average increase rate of 2.5 mm/a (recent 50 years) -
China’s National AR2 An increase of 0.23°C /10 ain 1951–2009 and a total of 0.5°C–0.8°C/100 a Unclear time trends Different trends and regional differences for different types of weather Average increase rate of 2.6 mm/a (1977–2009) Approximately 82% of glaciers are vulnerable, with more than 10% of areas decreased (1960–2005)
China’s National AR3 An increase of 0.25°C /10 ain 1956–2012 and a total of 0.9°C–1.5°C/100 a Unclear time trends and regional difference in distribution and time series Different types of extreme weather events have their own trends Average increase rate of 2.9 mm/a (1980–2012) Approximately 92% of glaciers are vulnerable, with 10.1% of areas decreased (1960/1970 to early 21st century)
US National AR3 An increase of 1.3°C–1.9°C since 1895 An increase in average level since 1900 but different regional increase rates Frequent heavy rain and hurricane events;
regional variations in flooding and drought; and
increased frequency and intensity in the heat wave
Sea-level rise of approximately 0.2 m since 1880; average increase rate of1.69 mm/a (1880–2000) The Arctic Sea ice area shrank by 40% in the most critical hours (from the late 1970s to the early 2000s)
IPCC AR5 An increase of 0.85°C in 1880–2012 and 0.12°C /10 ain 1951–2012 Unclear time trends but an increase in the mid and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere (1900–2010) Numerous heavy precipitation events;
drought at global level has no obvious trend
Mean rate of global sea level rise of 1.3 mm/a–2.3 mm/a since 1961 Global glaciers are generally in a state of constant withdrawal
  Table A1 Observed changes in the climate system
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